01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance FC Tokyo or draw (1X)68%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
J1 LeagueAjinomoto Stadium, Tokyo23°0,5 mm15 km/h
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FC TokyoBalanced & physical0–0
Kashiwa ReysolBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · FC Tokyo (41%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.13 (+25 %)
FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol · J1 League
1 · FC Tokyo 41%X 30%29% Kashiwa Reysol · 2
41%
30%
29%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol (J1 League, Wednesday, 21 October 2026): FC Tokyo win 41%, draw 30%, Kashiwa Reysol win 29%. Expected goals (xG): FC Tokyo 1.57, Kashiwa Reysol 1.32. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: FC Tokyo or draw 71%, Kashiwa Reysol or draw 59%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 13 October 2026.
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Analysis: FC Tokyo – Kashiwa Reysol
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
The numbers back Tokyo's recent surge: scoring in 11 straight league games, they average 1.9 xG per match against Kashiwa's 1.5. Defensively, the hosts also boast an advantage with a 0.97 xGA compared to the visitors' 1.3. These metrics indicate a solid foundation for Tokyo, as does their edge in both actual and expected points, though the visitors' historical resolve in this fixture cannot be ignored.
Despite the model's lean toward a home win, the probabilities highlight an intriguing draw opportunity, priced at odds offering a small edge with LeoVegas and others. With the over 2.5 goals at a modest 55% probability and both teams scoring at 58%, the data leans towards a closely matched encounter with a reasonable chance of goals at both ends.
Given the balance in playing styles, with both teams described as physical yet balanced, punters might expect a robust midfield battle. Tokyo's strengths could see them edge proceedings, but don't discount Reysol's capacity to disrupt.
For those seeking value, the draw presents a compelling option, especially at odds of 3.4 with LeoVegas, where the model sees a 3% edge. A 1-1 final score could very well be the outcome that aligns with both statistical trends and betting value.
FC TokyoForm WWWWW
League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #4xP/match #2Points #3
Key players
- Takahiro KoCDMxG 0.12 · xT 0.15
- Kento HashimotoCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.12
- Motoki NagakuraCAMxG 0.40 · xT 0.14
Kashiwa ReysolForm LWWWL
League ranking xG #6xGA #8xT #7xP/match #10Points #5
Key players
- Taiyo KogaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
- Koki KumasakaCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
- Daiki SugiokaCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.14
Final score
0 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: FC Tokyo 41% · Draw 30% · Kashiwa Reysol 29%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Kashiwa ReysolBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 11,57fair 10,78+7 %
MissMatchresultat - FC TokyoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,34fair 7,72-31 %
MissMatch prediction: FC Tokyo – Kashiwa Reysol
Predicted score matrix
Kashiwa Reysol →
FC Tokyo →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.9%
0–17.0%
0–24.9%
0–32.1%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–08.4%
1–111.9%
1–27.6%
1–33.4%
1–4+1.5%
2
2–06.8%
2–19.0%
2–26.0%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–03.6%
3–14.7%
3–23.1%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–02.0%
4+–12.6%
4+–21.7%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,57–1,32
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
224%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,545%
@2.08
Over 2,555%
@1.70
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance FC Tokyo or draw (1X)68%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Marcelo Ryan Silvestre dos Santos to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Marcelo Ryan Silvestre dos Santos to score27%
- Nobuteru Nakagawa to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw30% probability@4.13PinnacleEV+25%reference odds
- 2 · Kashiwa Reysol29% probability@4.30PinnacleEV+24%reference odds
- 2 · Kashiwa Reysol29% probability@3.90BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · FC Tokyo | X | 2 · Kashiwa Reysol |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM UK | 2.30 | EV+ 3% 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Betsafe | 1.80 | EV+ 8% 3.55 | EV+ 12% 3.90 |
| LeoVegas | 1.83 | EV+ 11% 3.65 | EV+ 12% 3.90 |
| Nordicbet | 1.80 | EV+ 8% 3.55 | EV+ 12% 3.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.77 | EV+ 25% 4.13 | EV+ 24% 4.30 |
Odds updated 21 Oct, 12:15
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a FC Tokyo win since 19 October — the odds have shortened from 2.15 to 1.77 (−18%).
1-18 %
59 %39 %
2.15 → 1.77
X+17 %
35 %15 %
3.53 → 4.13
2+31 %
36 %16 %
3.28 → 4.30
Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 19/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesFC Tokyo 1Draw 3Kashiwa Reysol 2
Goals: 8–9 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Kashiwa Reysol dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
- FC Tokyo come into this round on 5 straight wins.
- FC Tokyo have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
FC Tokyo
Kashiwa Reysol
FC Tokyo (21–8)
Kashiwa Reysol (22–17)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
FC Tokyo
Kashiwa Reysol
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
FC Tokyo
Kashiwa Reysol
The teams in numbers
| Performance | FC Tokyo | Kashiwa Reysol |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 23 | 21 |
| xPoints | 18.1 | 14.1 |
| xG per match | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 0.97 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| Playing style | FC Tokyo | Kashiwa Reysol |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.6 | 0.67 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 0.87 | 0.97 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 19 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 19 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 405 | 521 |
| Passes against per match | 323 | 341 |
| Switches of play per match | 27 | 32.2 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 32 |
| Set pieces | FC Tokyo | Kashiwa Reysol |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 5.2 | 5.7 |
| Corners against per match | 4.1 | 3.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.31 | 0.88 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.61 | 0.82 |
| Other | FC Tokyo | Kashiwa Reysol |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Seung-Gyu Kim (FC Tokyo) | Ryosuke Kojima (Kashiwa Reysol) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 16 | 13 |
| Save % | 67% | 56% |
| xG prevented | 26% | 30% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Fagiano Okayama – Vissel Kobe18 October 2026
- Machida Zelvia – Avispa Fukuoka18 October 2026
- Nagoya Grampus – Cerezo Osaka21 October 2026
- Kyoto Sanga – Kashima Antlers21 October 2026
- Yokohama F. Marinos – Tokyo Verdy21 October 2026
- Kawasaki Frontale – Vissel Kobe21 October 2026
- V-Varen Nagasaki – Sanfrecce Hiroshima21 October 2026
- Avispa Fukuoka – Gamba Osaka21 October 2026
- Shimizu S-Pulse – Machida Zelvia21 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol according to our model?
The model gives FC Tokyo a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Tokyo 41%, draw 30%, Kashiwa Reysol 29%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol?
The model expects 1.57 goals (xG) for FC Tokyo and 1.32 for Kashiwa Reysol, 2.89 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
FC Tokyo or draw (1X) 71%, Kashiwa Reysol or draw (X2) 59% and no draw (12) 70%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.