Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-Pulse Prediction: Home win 78% (24 Oct 2026)

J1 League24 October 2026Edion Peace Wing, Hiroshima21°32,5 mm11 km/h

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Sanfrecce HiroshimaPossession & high press

Shimizu S-PulseLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima (78%)

1 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 78%X 14%8% Shimizu S-Pulse · 2

78%

14%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-Pulse (J1 League, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 78%, draw 14%, Shimizu S-Pulse win 8%. Expected goals (xG): Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2.52, Shimizu S-Pulse 0.62. Most likely score: 2-0 (14%). Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 43%. Double chance: Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw 92%, Shimizu S-Pulse or draw 22%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Sanfrecce Hiroshima – Shimizu S-Pulse

Marcus Johansson · 19 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

A commanding 78% win probability for Sanfrecce Hiroshima sets the stage for this fixture. With an expected goals figure of 2.52 against Shimizu S-Pulse's 0.62, the home side's high-octane possession and pressing style is poised to overwhelm the visitors' low defensive block and direct approach. The hosts have momentum—riding a wave of four consecutive victories—and boast a strong 60% home win rate historically, though it's the current form that speaks volumes.

The most likely outcomes favor a clean sheet for the hosts, with 2-0 (14%) and 3-0 (12%) scorelines leading the probabilities. A compressed Shimizu defense might struggle against constant pressure, likely ceding the lion's share of possession and chances to Hiroshima. The visitors' counter-attacking strategy may find it difficult to breach a defense conceding just 0.56 xGA per match. With 61% likelihood for over 2.5 goals, the model suggests an active evening in front of goal, with the rain expected to dampen but not derail attacking efforts.

Despite a small head-to-head sample showing two draws, Hiroshima's superior metrics suggest dominance. Given the model's lean and potential for multiple Hiroshima goals, the over 2.5 goals market aligns with the anticipated narrative.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Form LWWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Shunki HigashiLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.38
Shuto NakanoCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.25
Hayato ArakiCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.07

Shimizu S-Pulse

Form LWWWD

League ranking xG #11xGA #9xT #11xP/match #8Points #10

Key players

Mateus Brunetti ValorLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.28
Se-Hun OhFxG 0.44 · xT 0.05
Kai MatsuzakiCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.18

Match prediction: Sanfrecce Hiroshima – Shimizu S-Pulse

Predicted score matrix

Shimizu S-Pulse →

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →

0–04.5%

0–12.5%

0–20.8%

0–30.2%

0–4+0.0%

1–010.7%

1–17.0%

1–22.1%

1–30.4%

1–4+0.1%

2–013.7%

2–18.5%

2–22.7%

2–30.5%

2–4+0.1%

3–011.5%

3–17.2%

3–22.2%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–013.2%

4+–18.2%

4+–22.5%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-014%
2.3-012%
3.1-011%
4.2-19%
5.4-07%

Expected goals

2,52–0,62

Both teams to score

43%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.30

Over 2,561%

@1.55

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win78%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win78%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Akito Suzuki to score45%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score43%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Akito Suzuki to score45%
Yudai Shimamoto to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima78% probability@1.40PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
1 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima78% probability@1.38BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
1 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima78% probability@1.38LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima	X	2 · Shimizu S-Pulse
Betsafe	EV+ 7% 1.38	4.60	6.60
LeoVegas	EV+ 7% 1.38	4.75	6.75
Nordicbet	EV+ 7% 1.38	4.60	6.60
Pinnacle	EV+ 9% 1.40	5.05	7.44

Odds updated 23 Oct, 08:19

Odds movement

1+1 %

71 %66 %

1.38 → 1.40

X+2 %

21 %16 %

4.97 → 5.05

2+2 %

15 %10 %

7.26 → 7.44

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0Draw 2Shimizu S-Pulse 0

Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

Key facts

Sanfrecce Hiroshima come into this round on 4 straight wins.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 60% of their home matches all-time (60 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Shimizu S-Pulse

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (25–6)

Shimizu S-Pulse (10–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Shimizu S-Pulse

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Shimizu S-Pulse

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	Shimizu S-Pulse
Points	23	14
xPoints	21.2	14.8
xG per match	2.5	1.2
xGA per match	0.56	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.55	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.07	0.2

Playing style	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	Shimizu S-Pulse
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.32
Field tilt	0.72	0.38
xT per match	1.7	0.95
xTA per match	0.67	0.95
Won balls, offensive half	27	32
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.25
Entries into the box per match	22	12
Entries into the box against	9	12
Pass completion %	0.8	0.68
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.64
Passes per match	482	260
Passes against per match	279	408
Switches of play per match	34.6	21.1
Long balls per match	42	30

Set pieces	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	Shimizu S-Pulse
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.07
Corners per match	7.2	4.9
Corners against per match	2.3	6
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.29
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.53

Other	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	Shimizu S-Pulse
Throw-in control	0.76	0.61

The goalkeepers	Issei Ouchi (Sanfrecce Hiroshima)	Togo Umeda (Shimizu S-Pulse)
Saves	15	33
Save %	79%	77%
xG prevented	53%	59%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Fixtures, form & tips

Shimizu S-Pulse

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-Pulse according to our model?

The model gives Sanfrecce Hiroshima a 78% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 78%, draw 14%, Shimizu S-Pulse 8%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 43% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-Pulse?

The model expects 2.52 goals (xG) for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 0.62 for Shimizu S-Pulse, 3.14 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw (1X) 92%, Shimizu S-Pulse or draw (X2) 22% and no draw (12) 86%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.