J2 League18°14 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Albirex NiigataAlbirex Niigata
    vs
    Tokushima VortisTokushima Vortis
    The model's lean: 1 · Albirex Niigata (43%)

    Albirex Niigata vs Tokushima Vortis · J2 League

    1 · Albirex Niigata 43%X 33%24% Tokushima Vortis · 2

    Bet on this match

    BetssonFå ett 250 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4!Claim the bonus at Betsson
    NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
    BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

    18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

    Analysis: Albirex Niigata – Tokushima Vortis

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Albirex Niigata enters this clash with a clear edge, backed by a 43% probability of victory in the model. Their edge is reflected in a forecasted 1-0 scoreline, given a 14% chance, aligning with their expected goals of 1.24 compared to Tokushima Vortis' 0.91. Albirex Niigata's form has been consistent, which is more significant than any brief head-to-head history between the sides.

    The lean towards a low-scoring affair is evident. Goal projections are modest, with a mere 36% chance of the match seeing over 2.5 goals and a 43% probability for both teams finding the net. These figures suggest a tight, potentially defensive game, where Albirex’s slight offensive advantage might just edge out their opponents, who remain under 1 expected goal.

    For bettors, the model favors Albirex Niigata to win, given their modeled 43% win chance. The match's dynamics and numbers favor a narrow win for Albirex, potentially 1-0, with little to suggest a high-scoring outcome.

    Albirex NiigataAlbirex Niigata
    Form WWLWW
    Key players
    • Kazuyoshi ShimabukuLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.02
    • Eiji ShiraiCMxG 0.13 · xT 0.13
    • Tetsuya KatoLBxG 0.09 · xT 0.13
    Tokushima VortisTokushima Vortis
    Form LWWLW
    Key players
    • Daiki WatariFxG 0.13 · xT 0.04
    • Naoki KanumaFxG 0.07 · xT 0.00
    • Ko YanagisawaRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.06

    Match prediction: Albirex Niigata – Tokushima Vortis

    Predicted score matrix

    Tokushima Vortis →
    Albirex Niigata →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–012.0%
    0–110.2%
    0–24.8%
    0–31.5%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–014.1%
    1–113.5%
    1–26.0%
    1–31.8%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–09.0%
    2–18.2%
    2–23.7%
    2–31.1%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–03.7%
    3–13.4%
    3–21.5%
    3–30.5%
    3–4+0.1%
    4+
    4+–01.5%
    4+–11.4%
    4+–20.6%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-014%
    2. 2.1-114%
    3. 3.0-012%
    4. 4.0-110%
    5. 5.2-09%
    Expected goals
    1,24–0,91
    Both teams to score
    43%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,2
    Under 2,564%
    @1.60EV+0%
    Over 2,536%
    @2.27

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Albirex Niigata or draw (1X)73%
    • Under 3.5 goals83%

    Combined probability

    60%

    Fair odds

    1.65

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Albirex Niigata or draw (1X)73%
    • Under 2.5 goals64%
    • Yamato Wakatsuki to score21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score43%
    • Over 2.5 goals36%
    • Yamato Wakatsuki to score21%
    • Yusuke Onishi to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Albirex Niigata43% probability@2.56PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
    • 1 · Albirex Niigata43% probability@2.52BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
    • 1 · Albirex Niigata43% probability@2.52BetssonEV+9%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Albirex NiigataX2 · Tokushima Vortis
    Betsafe
    EV+ 9%
    2.52    		2.952.75
    Betsson
    EV+ 9%
    2.52    		2.952.75
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 9%
    2.52    		2.952.75
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 10%
    2.56
    EV+ 1%
    3.11    		2.80

    Odds updated 27 Sept, 12:35

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Albirex Niigata
    Tokushima Vortis
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Albirex Niigata (6–8)
    Tokushima Vortis (5–8)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Albirex Niigata
    Tetsuya Kato: 144 passningar, xT 0.48KatoKakeru Funaki: 139 passningar, xT 0.28FunakiEiji Shirai: 128 passningar, xT 0.43ShiraiYusuke Onishi: 103 passningar, xT 0.05OnishiMichael James Fitzgerald: 91 passningar, xT 0.17FitzgeraldKazuyoshi Shimabuku: 86 passningar, xT 0.12ShimabukuSoya Fujiwara: 79 passningar, xT 0.08FujiwaraNoam Baumann: 71 passningar, xT 0.14BaumannRyosuke Maeda: 60 passningar, xT 0.13MaedaFumiya Hayakawa: 46 passningar, xT 0.28HayakawaJason Geria: 45 passningar, xT 0.07Geria
    Tokushima Vortis
    Nao Yamada: 222 passningar, xT 0.14YamadaHayato Tanaka: 200 passningar, xT 0.41TanakaYuya Takagi: 162 passningar, xT 0.08TakagiKen Iwao: 146 passningar, xT 0.27IwaoKai Chidi Kitamura: 141 passningar, xT 0.21KitamuraKo Yanagisawa: 140 passningar, xT 0.33YanagisawaNaoki Kanuma: 129 passningar, xT 0.02KanumaMalcolm Tsuyoshi Moyo: 125 passningar, xT 0.2MoyoTaro Sugimoto: 100 passningar, xT 0.15SugimotoTetsuyuki Inami: 92 passningar, xT -0.03InamiShunto Kodama: 84 passningar, xT 0.07Kodama
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Albirex Niigata
    Tetsuya Kato: 144 passningar, xT 0.48KatoKakeru Funaki: 139 passningar, xT 0.28FunakiEiji Shirai: 128 passningar, xT 0.43ShiraiYusuke Onishi: 103 passningar, xT 0.05OnishiMichael James Fitzgerald: 91 passningar, xT 0.17FitzgeraldKazuyoshi Shimabuku: 86 passningar, xT 0.12ShimabukuSoya Fujiwara: 79 passningar, xT 0.08FujiwaraNoam Baumann: 71 passningar, xT 0.14BaumannRyosuke Maeda: 60 passningar, xT 0.13MaedaFumiya Hayakawa: 46 passningar, xT 0.28HayakawaJason Geria: 45 passningar, xT 0.07Geria
    Tokushima Vortis
    Nao Yamada: 222 passningar, xT 0.14YamadaHayato Tanaka: 200 passningar, xT 0.41TanakaYuya Takagi: 162 passningar, xT 0.08TakagiKen Iwao: 146 passningar, xT 0.27IwaoKai Chidi Kitamura: 141 passningar, xT 0.21KitamuraKo Yanagisawa: 140 passningar, xT 0.33YanagisawaNaoki Kanuma: 129 passningar, xT 0.02KanumaMalcolm Tsuyoshi Moyo: 125 passningar, xT 0.2MoyoTaro Sugimoto: 100 passningar, xT 0.15SugimotoTetsuyuki Inami: 92 passningar, xT -0.03InamiShunto Kodama: 84 passningar, xT 0.07Kodama
    The goalkeepersNoam Baumann (Albirex Niigata)Kai Chidi Kitamura (Tokushima Vortis)
    Saves1723
    Save %68%74%
    xG prevented40%68%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Albirex Niigata
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Tokushima Vortis
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Albirex Niigata vs Tokushima Vortis according to our model?

    The model gives Albirex Niigata a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Albirex Niigata 43%, draw 33%, Tokushima Vortis 24%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 36% and under at 64%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 43% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    Vanraure HachinoheVanraure Hachinohe
    2–0
    Kataller ToyamaKataller Toyama
    1 33%X 31%2 36%
    The model missed the outcome
    Omiya ArdijaOmiya Ardija
    1–0
    Albirex NiigataAlbirex Niigata
    1 50%X 26%2 24%
    The model called the outcome
    Fujieda MYFCFujieda MYFC
    2–0
    Vegalta SendaiVegalta Sendai
    1 30%X 31%2 39%
    The model missed the outcome
    Betsson
    BetssonPopulär
    Få ett 250 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4!

    250 kr gratisspel plus freespins

    Hämta bonus
    Nordicbet
    Nordicbet
    Välkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.

    100 kr gratisspel plus freespins

    Hämta bonus
    Betsafe
    Betsafe
    Hämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!

    100 kr gratisspel plus freespins

    Hämta bonus

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.