Oita Trinita vs Montedio Yamagata Prediction: Away win 37% (3 Oct 2026)

J2 League3 October 202619°10 km/h

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Oita Trinita

Montedio Yamagata

The model's lean: 2 · Montedio Yamagata (37%)Soft draw

1 · Oita Trinita 35%X 28%37% Montedio Yamagata · 2

35%

28%

37%

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Analysis: Oita Trinita – Montedio Yamagata

Erik Lindberg · 25 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT:

Montedio Yamagata's dominance in their matchups with Oita Trinita stands starkly at 5 wins out of 6 recent encounters. Yet, the visitors are currently in a troubling phase, having lost 3 consecutive matches. This tension between historical supremacy and recent form complicates the analysis, placing the focus firmly on whether Yamagata can break their losing streak.

The model gives a slight edge to Montedio Yamagata at a 37% probability to win, compared to Oita's 35%. This narrow margin underscores a competitive clash, where the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw at 13%, followed closely by a 0-1 away win at 11%. It's clear that neither team is expected to run away with the match, which points to a cautious, balanced affair on the pitch.

Expected goals tell a similar story of near-parity, with Oita generating 1.17 and Yamagata 1.22. These figures suggest a match that may be light on scoring opportunities; hence, the over 2.5 goals probability of 43% leans towards a lower-scoring game. The prediction for both teams to find the net sits at 49%, indicating the potential for a tight contest where defenses could dominate.

While the head-to-head record provides a psychological edge to Yamagata, the small sample size and their current slump render it less decisive than ongoing form and underlying metrics. The draw, therefore, emerges as a compelling outcome, aligning with both historical results and current conditions.

Oita Trinita

Form WLDDD

Key players

Shinya UtsumotoLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.16
Kotaro ArimaFxG 0.37 · xT -0.02
Matheus PereiraCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.09

Montedio Yamagata

Form WWLLL

Key players

Junya TakahashiFxG 0.41 · xT -0.01
Hayate SugiiLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.16
Akira Silvano DisaroFxG 0.59 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Oita Trinita – Montedio Yamagata

Predicted score matrix

Montedio Yamagata →

Oita Trinita →

0–09.6%

0–110.8%

0–26.9%

0–32.8%

0–4+1.1%

1–010.3%

1–113.5%

1–28.0%

1–33.3%

1–4+1.3%

2–06.2%

2–17.6%

2–24.7%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.8%

3–02.4%

3–13.0%

3–21.8%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-010%
4.0-010%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,17–1,22

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,557%

@1.68

Over 2,543%

@2.12

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Montedio Yamagata or draw (X2)66%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Montedio Yamagata or draw (X2)66%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Ryoma Kida to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Ryoma Kida to score23%
Keigo Sakakibara to be booked20%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Oita Trinita	X	2 · Montedio Yamagata
Betsafe	2.80	3.05	2.42
Betsson	2.80	3.05	2.42
Nordicbet	2.80	3.05	2.42
Pinnacle	2.78	3.21	2.52

Odds updated 26 Sept, 16:04

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Oita Trinita 0Draw 1Montedio Yamagata 5

Goals: 1–14 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.

Key facts

Montedio Yamagata dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 0 in 6 meetings.
Montedio Yamagata have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Oita Trinita

Montedio Yamagata

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Oita Trinita (6–5)

Montedio Yamagata (8–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Oita Trinita

Montedio Yamagata

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Oita Trinita

Montedio Yamagata

The goalkeepers	Kyung Gun Mun (Oita Trinita)	Ryusei Sato (Montedio Yamagata)
Saves	22	24
Save %	82%	83%
xG prevented	81%	69%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Oita Trinita

Fixtures, form & tips

Montedio Yamagata

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Oita Trinita vs Montedio Yamagata according to our model?

The model gives Montedio Yamagata a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Oita Trinita 35%, draw 28%, Montedio Yamagata 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.