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    Ventforet KofuVentforet Kofu
    vs
    Kataller ToyamaKataller Toyama
    The model's lean: 2 · Kataller Toyama (53%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.06 (+2 %)

    Ventforet Kofu vs Kataller Toyama · J2 League

    1 · Ventforet Kofu 22%X 24%53% Kataller Toyama · 2

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    Analysis: Ventforet Kofu – Kataller Toyama

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    TEXT:

    Focusing our gaze on Kataller Toyama's recent test against Ventforet Kofu, the tension revolves around Toyama's striking form and Kofu's home resilience. With a model favoring the visitors at a commanding 53% probability, Toyama's edge is palpable. Yet, the head-to-head history, albeit from a small sample of two matches, sees Toyama undefeated. This points to a psychological advantage, even if the numbers have a limited range.

    Toyama's sharp edge in expected goals, sitting at 1.63 compared to Kofu's 1.06, reveals a potential for the visitors to carve through Kofu's defenses. This is crucial, considering Kofu's inability to clinch a win in their recent encounters. The likelihood of a 1-1 draw sits at 12%, yet there's a significant 11% chance for a 0-1 Toyama victory, showing their potential to stifle Kofu's attacking aspirations.

    The statistical balance concerning goals leans toward a cautious interpretation. With over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring hovering around the 50% mark, goal scoring may not come easy. This tension underscores the potential for a low-scoring affair, further reinforced by Toyama's structured defensive play. The numbers suggest a 1-2 or 1-1 outcome is within reach, possibly suppressing any dramatic scorelines.

    For bettors, the value lies with Toyama, especially given their strong model probability on an away win. While it's not a guarantee, the statistical lean towards Toyama combined with their previous performances against Kofu presents a compelling case. With the model and historical data favoring the visitors, aligning with Toyama seems a prudent move.

    In essence, the evening promises a restrained yet strategic display where Toyama's dominance could unfold through tactical precision. For those eyeing the betting landscape, Toyama's favorable model probability offers standout value, capitalizing on their recent form against Kofu.

    Ventforet KofuVentforet Kofu
    Form LWWLL
    Key players
    • Kazushi FujiiFxG 0.31 · xT 0.03
    • Sho ArakiCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.14
    • Kojiro YasudaCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.06
    Kataller ToyamaKataller Toyama
    Form LWLWW
    Key players
    • Tsubasa YoshihiraFxG 0.42 · xT 0.26
    • Yoshiki TakahashiRWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.17
    • Sho FuseyaLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.14

    Match prediction: Ventforet Kofu – Kataller Toyama

    Predicted score matrix

    Kataller Toyama →
    Ventforet Kofu →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.2%
    0–110.8%
    0–29.0%
    0–34.9%
    0–4+2.9%
    1
    1–06.8%
    1–112.1%
    1–29.6%
    1–35.2%
    1–4+3.1%
    2
    2–03.8%
    2–16.2%
    2–25.1%
    2–32.7%
    2–4+1.6%
    3
    3–01.3%
    3–12.2%
    3–21.8%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–00.4%
    4+–10.7%
    4+–20.6%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.0-111%
    3. 3.1-210%
    4. 4.0-29%
    5. 5.0-07%
    Expected goals
    1,06–1,63
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,550%
    @2.06EV+0%
    Over 2,550%
    @1.72

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Kataller Toyama to win53%
    • Under 3.5 goals72%

    Combined probability

    34%

    Fair odds

    2.92

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Kataller Toyama to win53%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Tae-won Kim to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Tae-won Kim to score26%
    • Shunsuke Tanimoto to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.550% probability@2.06PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
    • Under 3.572% probability@1.40BetsafeEV+0%reference odds
    • Under 3.572% probability@1.40BetssonEV+0%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Ventforet KofuX2 · Kataller Toyama
    Betsafe4.103.601.70
    Betsson4.103.601.70
    Nordicbet4.103.601.70
    Pinnacle4.373.771.72

    Odds updated 27 Sept, 07:35

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Ventforet Kofu 0Draw 0Kataller Toyama 2
    Goals: 0–3 (⌀ 1,5)

    Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Ventforet Kofu
    Kataller Toyama
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Ventforet Kofu (5–10)
    Kataller Toyama (9–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Ventforet Kofu
    Hikaru Endo: 206 passningar, xT 0.34EndoSho Araki: 190 passningar, xT 0.76ArakiKojiro Yasuda: 189 passningar, xT 0.18YasudaYuta Koide: 171 passningar, xT 0.58KoideSeigo Takei: 152 passningar, xT 0.73TakeiYukito Murakami: 118 passningar, xT 0.72MurakamiMiki Inoue: 83 passningar, xT 0.1InoueKazuhiro Sato: 80 passningar, xT -0.12SatoJohn Higashi: 72 passningar, xT 0.13HigashiIwana Kobayashi: 59 passningar, xT 0.12KobayashiHideomi Yamamoto: 57 passningar, xT 0.1Yamamoto
    Kataller Toyama
    Woo-Young Jung: 296 passningar, xT 1.28JungShunsuke Tanimoto: 293 passningar, xT 0.49TanimotoSota Fukazawa: 285 passningar, xT 1.06FukazawaYoshiki Takahashi: 242 passningar, xT 0.66TakahashiShosei Okamoto: 225 passningar, xT 0.25OkamotoSho Fuseya: 222 passningar, xT 0.69FuseyaToshiki Hirao: 123 passningar, xT 0.14HiraoMin-Woo Kang: 113 passningar, xT 0.19KangTae-won Kim: 99 passningar, xT 0.2KimTsubasa Yoshihira: 90 passningar, xT 0.51YoshihiraYuto Kunitake: 80 passningar, xT 0.25Kunitake
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Ventforet Kofu
    Hikaru Endo: 206 passningar, xT 0.34EndoSho Araki: 190 passningar, xT 0.76ArakiKojiro Yasuda: 189 passningar, xT 0.18YasudaYuta Koide: 171 passningar, xT 0.58KoideSeigo Takei: 152 passningar, xT 0.73TakeiYukito Murakami: 118 passningar, xT 0.72MurakamiMiki Inoue: 83 passningar, xT 0.1InoueKazuhiro Sato: 80 passningar, xT -0.12SatoJohn Higashi: 72 passningar, xT 0.13HigashiIwana Kobayashi: 59 passningar, xT 0.12KobayashiHideomi Yamamoto: 57 passningar, xT 0.1Yamamoto
    Kataller Toyama
    Woo-Young Jung: 296 passningar, xT 1.28JungShunsuke Tanimoto: 293 passningar, xT 0.49TanimotoSota Fukazawa: 285 passningar, xT 1.06FukazawaYoshiki Takahashi: 242 passningar, xT 0.66TakahashiShosei Okamoto: 225 passningar, xT 0.25OkamotoSho Fuseya: 222 passningar, xT 0.69FuseyaToshiki Hirao: 123 passningar, xT 0.14HiraoMin-Woo Kang: 113 passningar, xT 0.19KangTae-won Kim: 99 passningar, xT 0.2KimTsubasa Yoshihira: 90 passningar, xT 0.51YoshihiraYuto Kunitake: 80 passningar, xT 0.25Kunitake
    The goalkeepersJohn Higashi (Ventforet Kofu)Toshiki Hirao (Kataller Toyama)
    Saves148
    Save %78%62%
    xG prevented77%77%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Ventforet Kofu
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Kataller Toyama
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Ventforet Kofu vs Kataller Toyama according to our model?

    The model gives Kataller Toyama a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ventforet Kofu 22%, draw 24%, Kataller Toyama 53%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.