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    Fujieda MYFCFujieda MYFC
    vs
    Shonan BellmareShonan Bellmare
    The model's lean: 1 · Fujieda MYFC (36%)Soft draw

    Fujieda MYFC vs Shonan Bellmare · J2 League

    1 · Fujieda MYFC 36%X 29%35% Shonan Bellmare · 2

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    Analysis: Fujieda MYFC – Shonan Bellmare

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    The numbers tell a story of balance and slight home advantage as Fujieda MYFC prepares to face Shonan Bellmare. A close examination reveals that the hosts have a 36% chance of victory according to the model, just edging out the visitors' 35%. The probability of a draw sits comfortably at 29%, underscoring the narrow margins expected in this encounter. With head-to-head data not offering much due to a small sample size, the focus shifts to current form and expected goals, which lean marginally in favor of Fujieda.

    Both teams are showing modest expected goals, with Fujieda at 1.25 and Shonan at 1.14, suggesting a cautious approach might dominate proceedings. The likelihood of a 1-1 draw stands at 13%, the most probable single outcome. This reflects not only balanced team strengths but also a potential lack of cutting edge in the final third for both sides. The model's slight tilt toward a Fujieda victory is mirrored in the next most likely scoreline of 1-0.

    With the over/under 2.5 goals line sitting at 43%, the data leans towards a match with fewer goals. The model sees just a 49% chance for both teams to score, further pushing the narrative towards a low-scoring affair. These figures suggest that while both sides have the capability to find the net, they might struggle to do so consistently throughout the match.

    Punters looking for value might be interested in the model's leaning towards a Fujieda victory, especially if odds offered by bookmakers like Bet365 present Fujieda as underdogs. Given the evenly matched setup and the slight home edge, exploring the market for a narrow Fujieda win could be a savvy angle.

    Fujieda MYFCFujieda MYFC
    Form LWDLD
    Key players
    • Yusuke KikuiFxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
    • Yuto NagaoCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.16
    • Riyo KawamotoFxG 0.19 · xT 0.01
    Shonan BellmareShonan Bellmare
    Form DDLWD
    Key players
    • Shohei TakedaCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.05
    • Yuta FukazawaCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.05
    • Yuto SuzukiRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.07

    Match prediction: Fujieda MYFC – Shonan Bellmare

    Predicted score matrix

    Shonan Bellmare →
    Fujieda MYFC →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.6%
    0–110.1%
    0–25.9%
    0–32.3%
    0–4+0.8%
    1
    1–011.1%
    1–113.4%
    1–27.4%
    1–32.8%
    1–4+1.0%
    2
    2–07.2%
    2–18.2%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.8%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–03.0%
    3–13.4%
    3–21.9%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–01.2%
    4+–11.4%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.0-110%
    4. 4.0-010%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,25–1,14
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,4
    Under 2,557%
    @1.72
    Over 2,543%
    @2.07

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Fujieda MYFC or draw (1X)67%
    • Under 3.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    52%

    Fair odds

    1.91

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Fujieda MYFC or draw (1X)67%
    • Under 2.5 goals57%
    • Riyo Kawamoto to score18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals43%
    • Riyo Kawamoto to score18%
    • Yuto Nagao to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Fujieda MYFC36% probability@2.87PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
    • 1 · Fujieda MYFC36% probability@2.80BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
    • 1 · Fujieda MYFC36% probability@2.80BetssonEV+1%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Fujieda MYFCX2 · Shonan Bellmare
    Betsafe
    EV+ 1%
    2.80    		3.002.42
    Betsson
    EV+ 1%
    2.80    		3.002.42
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 1%
    2.80    		3.002.42
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 3%
    2.87    		3.142.48

    Odds updated 27 Sept, 05:04

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Fujieda MYFC
    Shonan Bellmare
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Fujieda MYFC (11–8)
    Shonan Bellmare (7–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Fujieda MYFC
    Keita Matsuda: 209 passningar, xT 0.26MatsudaYuto Nagao: 173 passningar, xT 0.7NagaoYuri Mori: 127 passningar, xT 0.4MoriUheiji Uehata: 127 passningar, xT 0.05UehataShun Yoshida: 115 passningar, xT 0.3YoshidaYusuke Kikui: 109 passningar, xT 0.25KikuiTakuya Okamoto: 102 passningar, xT 0.4OkamotoShota Suzuki: 93 passningar, xT 0.13SuzukiSo Nakagawa: 57 passningar, xT 0.23NakagawaTakaya Numata: 57 passningar, xT 0.22NumataWigi Kanemoto: 51 passningar, xT -0.2Kanemoto
    Shonan Bellmare
    Shohei Takeda: 213 passningar, xT 0.5TakedaKazuki Dohana: 190 passningar, xT 0.47DohanaYuto Suzuki: 152 passningar, xT 0.24SuzukiSere Matsumura: 151 passningar, xT 0.79MatsumuraHiroya Matsumoto: 124 passningar, xT 0.17MatsumotoYuta Fukazawa: 103 passningar, xT 0.11FukazawaYutaro Hakamata: 87 passningar, xT 0.21HakamataNaoki Kase: 82 passningar, xT 0.41KaseKota Sanada: 72 passningar, xT 0.1SanadaHiroto Yamada: 64 passningar, xT 0.06YamadaArthur Silva Feitoza: 60 passningar, xT -0.01Feitoza
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Fujieda MYFC
    Keita Matsuda: 209 passningar, xT 0.26MatsudaYuto Nagao: 173 passningar, xT 0.7NagaoYuri Mori: 127 passningar, xT 0.4MoriUheiji Uehata: 127 passningar, xT 0.05UehataShun Yoshida: 115 passningar, xT 0.3YoshidaYusuke Kikui: 109 passningar, xT 0.25KikuiTakuya Okamoto: 102 passningar, xT 0.4OkamotoShota Suzuki: 93 passningar, xT 0.13SuzukiSo Nakagawa: 57 passningar, xT 0.23NakagawaTakaya Numata: 57 passningar, xT 0.22NumataWigi Kanemoto: 51 passningar, xT -0.2Kanemoto
    Shonan Bellmare
    Shohei Takeda: 213 passningar, xT 0.5TakedaKazuki Dohana: 190 passningar, xT 0.47DohanaYuto Suzuki: 152 passningar, xT 0.24SuzukiSere Matsumura: 151 passningar, xT 0.79MatsumuraHiroya Matsumoto: 124 passningar, xT 0.17MatsumotoYuta Fukazawa: 103 passningar, xT 0.11FukazawaYutaro Hakamata: 87 passningar, xT 0.21HakamataNaoki Kase: 82 passningar, xT 0.41KaseKota Sanada: 72 passningar, xT 0.1SanadaHiroto Yamada: 64 passningar, xT 0.06YamadaArthur Silva Feitoza: 60 passningar, xT -0.01Feitoza
    The goalkeepersShun Yoshida (Fujieda MYFC)Kota Sanada (Shonan Bellmare)
    Saves2727
    Save %79%84%
    xG prevented71%35%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Fujieda MYFC
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Shonan Bellmare
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Fujieda MYFC vs Shonan Bellmare according to our model?

    The model gives Fujieda MYFC a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fujieda MYFC 36%, draw 29%, Shonan Bellmare 35%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.