01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Kataller Toyama to win49%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
J2 League19°12 km/h
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Kataller Toyamavs
Tegevajaro MiyazakiThe model's lean: 1 · Kataller Toyama (49%)
Kataller Toyama vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki · J2 League
1 · Kataller Toyama 49%X 27%25% Tegevajaro Miyazaki · 2
49%
27%
25%
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Analysis: Kataller Toyama – Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
49% is a decisive figure that places Kataller Toyama as clear favorites against Tegevajaro Miyazaki. Despite the visitors' impressive run of three consecutive victories, the model suggests the home side has the upper hand. Toyama's expected goals tally of 1.71 eclipses Miyazaki's 1.23, hinting at a potential struggle for the visitors to find the net. Miyazaki's recent wins inject some unpredictability, yet their 25% win probability reflects an uphill battle at this venue.
In terms of goal projections, the numbers favor a competitive clash with enough quality to exceed the over 2.5 goals threshold, set at 56%. The 1-1 draw is the most likely outcome at 11%, closely followed by a 2-1 victory for Toyama at 10%. Such dynamics indicate a match leaning towards both sides finding the back of the net, which aligns with the 58% probability for both teams to score.
For bettors, Kataller Toyama's win odds hold potential value. According to Bet365, odds are set at 2.00 for a Toyama victory. This assessment, grounded in the model's solid backing of the hosts, suggests a bet on a home win could prove profitable, offering a sharper edge than the more evenly spread alternatives.
Kataller ToyamaForm WLWWD
Key players
- Yuto KunitakeFxG 0.21 · xT 0.10
- Tsubasa YoshihiraFxG 0.33 · xT 0.32
- Yoshiki TakahashiRWBxG 0.13 · xT 0.18
Tegevajaro MiyazakiForm LLWWW
Key players
- Mahiro AnoRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.05
- Koji OkumuraCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.07
- Kaiga MurakoshiLWxG 0.26 · xT 0.06
Match prediction: Kataller Toyama – Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Predicted score matrix
Tegevajaro Miyazaki →
Kataller Toyama →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.6%
0–16.2%
0–24.0%
0–31.6%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–08.7%
1–111.4%
1–26.8%
1–32.8%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.8%
2–19.5%
2–25.8%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–04.4%
3–15.4%
3–23.3%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–02.8%
4+–13.4%
4+–22.1%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,71–1,23
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
–
Over 2,556%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Kataller Toyama to win49%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Genta Takenaka to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Genta Takenaka to score20%
- Hikaru Manabe to be booked20%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Key facts
- Tegevajaro Miyazaki come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Kataller Toyama
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Kataller Toyama (12–8)
Tegevajaro Miyazaki (12–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Kataller Toyama
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Kataller Toyama
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
| The goalkeepers | Toshiki Hirao (Kataller Toyama) | Ryoya Kimura (Tegevajaro Miyazaki) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 9 | 14 |
| Save % | 53% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 68% | 39% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Jubilo Iwata – Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo10 October 2026
- Yokohama FC – Oita Trinita10 October 2026
- Omiya Ardija – Vanraure Hachinohe10 October 2026
- Sagan Tosu – Fujieda MYFC10 October 2026
- Tokushima Vortis – FC Imabari10 October 2026
- Ventforet Kofu – Tochigi City10 October 2026
- Shonan Bellmare – Albirex Niigata11 October 2026
- Montedio Yamagata – Vegalta Sendai11 October 2026
- Iwaki FC – Blaublitz Akita11 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Kataller Toyama vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki according to our model?
The model gives Kataller Toyama a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kataller Toyama 49%, draw 27%, Tegevajaro Miyazaki 25%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.