Tokushima Vortis vs FC Imabari Prediction: Home win 48% (10 Oct 2026)

J2 League10 October 202622°14 km/h

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Tokushima Vortis

FC Imabari

The model's lean: 1 · Tokushima Vortis (48%)

1 · Tokushima Vortis 48%X 26%26% FC Imabari · 2

48%

26%

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Analysis: Tokushima Vortis – FC Imabari

Anna Karlsson · 2 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: Tokushima Vortis' 48% chance of victory sets the stage for a potentially pivotal clash in the J2 League against FC Imabari. Despite the model's lean towards the hosts, the match is expected to be tightly contested with a probable scoreline of 1-1 at 12%. This forecast underscores the balance in offense and defense between the two sides. The sample size of their head-to-head record is limited to just two encounters, both won by Tokushima, which suggests some advantage but doesn't heavily tilt the scales given the size.

The expected goals further bolster the narrative of a close match. Tokushima Vortis are predicted to score 1.54 goals, slightly more than Imabari's 1.07. This marginal gap suggests that while Vortis might edge out their opponents, it's far from a foregone conclusion. The probability of both teams scoring is a touch over even, at 52%, hinting that both sides are more likely than not to find the net.

Interestingly, despite Tokushima's historical upper hand, the probability of a low-scoring affair is almost evenly matched with the possibility of exceeding two goals. The over/under 2.5 goals line sits at 49%, reflecting the underlying uncertainty and suggesting a cautious approach to expecting a high goal tally.

From a betting perspective, the model's lean towards Tokushima Vortis as favorites suggests their win line may offer value, though no specific market odds are available to confirm this. Given the tight margins in the model's expected goals and probable scorelines, a home win bet stands out as a plausible option in what could be a closely matched contest.

Ultimately, the analysis suggests leaning towards a 1-0 or 2-1 victory for Tokushima Vortis, favoring under 2.5 goals slightly, while the real opportunity lies in capitalizing on the favorable odds for a home win.

Tokushima Vortis

Form WWLWW

Key players

Daiki WatariFxG 0.21 · xT 0.06
Naoki KanumaFxG 0.07 · xT 0.02
Kohei YamakoshiCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.06

FC Imabari

Form LDWLL

Key players

Kengo FuruyamaRWxG 0.43 · xT 0.01
Hikaru AraiRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.15
Rei UmekiRWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Tokushima Vortis – FC Imabari

Predicted score matrix

FC Imabari →

Tokushima Vortis →

0–07.7%

0–17.5%

0–24.2%

0–31.5%

0–4+0.5%

1–010.9%

1–112.5%

1–26.5%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.7%

2–19.3%

2–25.0%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–04.5%

3–14.8%

3–22.6%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.4%

4+–12.6%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,54–1,07

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,551%

@1.81

Over 2,549%

@1.96

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Tokushima Vortis to win48%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Tokushima Vortis to win48%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Takuya Shigehiro to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Takuya Shigehiro to score22%
Kazuki Kushibiki to be booked17%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Tokushima Vortis	X	2 · FC Imabari
Betsafe	2.02	3.20	3.40
Nordicbet	2.02	3.20	3.40
Pinnacle	2.06	3.34	3.50

Odds updated 4 Oct, 07:01

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Tokushima Vortis 2Draw 0FC Imabari 0

Goals: 2–0 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Tokushima Vortis

FC Imabari

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Tokushima Vortis (8–8)

FC Imabari (7–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Tokushima Vortis

FC Imabari

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Tokushima Vortis

FC Imabari

The goalkeepers	Kai Chidi Kitamura (Tokushima Vortis)	Yamato Maruyama (FC Imabari)
Saves	27	10
Save %	77%	100%
xG prevented	70%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Tokushima Vortis

Fixtures, form & tips

FC Imabari

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Tokushima Vortis vs FC Imabari according to our model?

The model gives Tokushima Vortis a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tokushima Vortis 48%, draw 26%, FC Imabari 26%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.