Ventforet Kofu vs Tochigi City Prediction: Home win 45% (10 Oct 2026)

J2 League10 October 202617°4 km/h

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Ventforet Kofu

Tochigi City

The model's lean: 1 · Ventforet Kofu (45%)

1 · Ventforet Kofu 45%X 26%29% Tochigi City · 2

45%

26%

29%

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Analysis: Ventforet Kofu – Tochigi City

Erik Lindberg · 2 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

This underpins the model’s favoring of a draw or a slim margin victory for the hosts, reflective of Kofu's defensive solidity despite recent losses — replace with: "This underpins the possibility of a draw or a slim margin victory for the hosts, even though the model's overall lean favors a Kofu win rather than a draw."

Full corrected text:

Ventforet Kofu have been struggling recently, dropping their last three matches, a concerning trend for a team looking to establish themselves in the upper half of the J2 League table. Despite this rough patch, the model gives them a 45% chance of winning against Tochigi City, who themselves are given just a 29% chance. The most likely outcome according to the model is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 13% probability, followed by a narrow 1-0 victory for the hosts at 11%.

The expected goals suggest a slight edge for Kofu, with an anticipated 1.43 goals compared to 1.07 for Tochigi. This aligns with the probabilities, implying a match that might be tight and likely contested in midfield as both teams try to assert themselves. Kofu's recent poor form might suggest vulnerability, yet the model still leans towards them, likely considering their overall season performance over a temporary slump in results.

With a 45% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 50% likelihood for both teams to find the net, the numbers hint at a balanced affair, unlikely to break scoring barriers. This underpins the possibility of a draw or a slim margin victory for the hosts, even though the model's overall lean favors a Kofu win rather than a draw. Tochigi's moderate chances see them unlikely to dominate, reinforcing the notion that a low-scoring game is on the cards.

The sharpest angle lies in recognizing the value from the existing odds. Some bookmakers have Ventforet Kofu at odds of 2.30 for a win, which appears to offer some value given the model's lean towards them. While not a guarantee, given the hosts' downturn, this represents a calculated risk, especially if Kofu can rediscover their form against a team not exceptionally strong on the road.

Ventforet Kofu

Form WWLLL

Key players

Kazushi FujiiFxG 0.31 · xT 0.03
Sho ArakiCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.14
Yamato NaitoFxG 0.26 · xT -0.01

Tochigi City

Form WLWLL

Key players

Kazuki NishiyaLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.22
Ryo OkuiRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.19
Yuta KoikeRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Ventforet Kofu – Tochigi City

Predicted score matrix

Tochigi City →

Ventforet Kofu →

0–08.6%

0–18.4%

0–24.7%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.6%

1–011.4%

1–112.9%

1–26.7%

1–32.4%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.4%

2–19.0%

2–24.8%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–04.0%

3–14.3%

3–22.3%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.0%

4+–12.1%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.0-09%
5.0-18%

Expected goals

1,43–1,07

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@2.06EV+10%

Over 2,545%

@1.73

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Ventforet Kofu to win45%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Ventforet Kofu to win45%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Kazushi Fujii to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Kazushi Fujii to score25%
Pedro Augusto Borges da Costa to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Ventforet Kofu45% probability@3.03PinnacleEV+37%reference odds
1 · Ventforet Kofu45% probability@2.95BetsafeEV+33%reference odds
1 · Ventforet Kofu45% probability@2.95NordicbetEV+33%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Ventforet Kofu	X	2 · Tochigi City
Betsafe	EV+ 33% 2.95	3.40	2.10
Nordicbet	EV+ 33% 2.95	3.40	2.10
Pinnacle	EV+ 37% 3.03	3.60	2.16

Odds updated 3 Oct, 18:02

Statistics

Key facts

Ventforet Kofu have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Ventforet Kofu

Tochigi City

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Ventforet Kofu (6–15)

Tochigi City (14–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ventforet Kofu

Tochigi City

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ventforet Kofu

Tochigi City

The goalkeepers	John Higashi (Ventforet Kofu)	Jin-Hyeon Kim (Tochigi City)
Saves	15	31
Save %	63%	72%
xG prevented	48%	55%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Ventforet Kofu

Fixtures, form & tips

Tochigi City

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ventforet Kofu vs Tochigi City according to our model?

The model gives Ventforet Kofu a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ventforet Kofu 45%, draw 26%, Tochigi City 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.