Sagan Tosu vs Fujieda MYFC Prediction: Home win 57% (10 Oct 2026)

J2 League10 October 202623°2,7 mm10 km/h

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Sagan Tosu

Fujieda MYFC

The model's lean: 1 · Sagan Tosu (57%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 3.95 (+14 %)

1 · Sagan Tosu 57%X 24%20% Fujieda MYFC · 2

57%

24%

20%

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Analysis: Sagan Tosu – Fujieda MYFC

Oscar Nilsson · 2 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT:

Sagan Tosu's 57% win probability stands out despite their recent slump of three consecutive losses. The model still leans towards the hosts as favorites, suggesting that their underlying metrics remain solid. Expected goals favor Tosu at 1.68 compared to Fujieda's 1.03, indicating that the home side should generate more quality chances despite recent form.

The small head-to-head sample, with just two matches since 2023, shows Tosu unbeaten against Fujieda with one win and one draw. While this record is not deeply significant due to its size, it does provide a psychological edge for the hosts. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 12% slightly surpasses the 11% for a 1-0 home win, reflecting the potential for a tighter contest. With both teams' probabilities to score hovering around 53%, goals may be on the cards, yet not in abundance.

While a lean towards over 2.5 goals is present at 51%, it is barely more than a coin flip. The sharper play centers on Tosu's outright win, taking full advantage of the market's tempered expectations following their recent defeats.

Sagan Tosu

Form DWLLL

Key players

Sora OgawaCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.11
Rio HyonRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.05
Ayumu ToyodaCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.16

Fujieda MYFC

Form WDLDD

Key players

Yusuke KikuiFxG 0.06 · xT 0.14
Riyo KawamotoFxG 0.20 · xT 0.06
Uheiji UehataCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Sagan Tosu – Fujieda MYFC

Predicted score matrix

Fujieda MYFC →

Sagan Tosu →

0–07.0%

0–16.5%

0–23.5%

0–31.2%

0–4+0.4%

1–010.9%

1–111.9%

1–25.9%

1–32.0%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.4%

2–19.7%

2–25.0%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.5%

3–05.3%

3–15.4%

3–22.8%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–03.2%

4+–13.3%

4+–21.7%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,68–1,03

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@1.62

Over 2,551%

@2.18EV+11%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sagan Tosu to win57%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sagan Tosu to win57%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Daichi Suzuki to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Daichi Suzuki to score26%
Yuto Nagao to be booked18%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.529% probability@3.95BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
Over 3.529% probability@3.95NordicbetEV+14%reference odds
Over 2.551% probability@2.18BetsafeEV+11%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sagan Tosu	X	2 · Fujieda MYFC
Betsafe	EV+ 3% 1.82	3.40	3.85
Nordicbet	EV+ 3% 1.82	3.40	3.85

Odds updated 4 Oct, 07:36

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Sagan Tosu 1Draw 1Fujieda MYFC 0

Goals: 1–0 (⌀ 0,5)

Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.

Key facts

Sagan Tosu have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sagan Tosu

Fujieda MYFC

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sagan Tosu (8–11)

Fujieda MYFC (12–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sagan Tosu

Fujieda MYFC

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sagan Tosu

Fujieda MYFC

The goalkeepers	Ryota Izumori (Sagan Tosu)	Shun Yoshida (Fujieda MYFC)
Saves	22	28
Save %	67%	78%
xG prevented	41%	69%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sagan Tosu

Fixtures, form & tips

Fujieda MYFC

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sagan Tosu vs Fujieda MYFC according to our model?

The model gives Sagan Tosu a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sagan Tosu 57%, draw 24%, Fujieda MYFC 20%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.