01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Shonan Bellmare or draw (1X)70%
- Under 3.5 goals78%
J2 League21°18 km/h
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Shonan Bellmarevs
Albirex NiigataThe model's lean: 1 · Shonan Bellmare (42%)
Shonan Bellmare vs Albirex Niigata · J2 League
1 · Shonan Bellmare 42%X 29%30% Albirex Niigata · 2
42%
29%
30%
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Analysis: Shonan Bellmare – Albirex Niigata
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Shonan Bellmare's defense will be pivotal in their clash against Albirex Niigata. The model gives the hosts a 42% chance of victory, suggesting they are the slight favorites. Despite this edge, the likelihood of a tightly contested match is high, with the most probable scorelines being 1-1 at 13% and 1-0 at 12%.
The expected goals metric further underscores a low-scoring affair, projecting Shonan Bellmare at 1.33 and Albirex Niigata at 1.07. This aligns with an over 2.5 goals probability of just 43%, indicating a more cautious approach from both sides. The visitors, with only a 30% chance of taking all three points, will likely focus on a solid defensive setup to counter Shonan's home advantage.
Head-to-head history between these two is sparse, which makes form and expected goals more significant in this analysis. With a draw probability of 29%, both teams may settle into a pattern of containment and counterattacks, wary of overcommitting and leaving gaps at the back. Given the nearly even chance for both teams to score, at 49%, a low-scoring draw seems plausible.
Ultimately, expect a match dominated by defensive structure and control, likely to end in a draw or a narrow victory for Shonan Bellmare. The numbers steer us toward a cautious under 2.5 goals stance, with the hosts holding the slenderest of edges in what promises to be a strategic tussle.
Shonan BellmareForm DLWDW
Key players
- Shohei TakedaCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.05
- Yuta FukazawaCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.05
- Yuto SuzukiRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
Albirex NiigataForm WLWWD
Key players
- Matheus Purcelo Blecha de MorasRWxG 0.51 · xT 0.06
- Kazuyoshi ShimabukuLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.03
- Tetsuya KatoLBxG 0.08 · xT 0.11
Match prediction: Shonan Bellmare – Albirex Niigata
Predicted score matrix
Albirex Niigata →
Shonan Bellmare →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.5%
0–19.4%
0–25.2%
0–31.9%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–011.7%
1–113.3%
1–26.9%
1–32.5%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–08.0%
2–18.6%
2–24.6%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–03.5%
3–13.8%
3–22.0%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.6%
4+–11.7%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.0-010%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.2-19%
Expected goals
1,33–1,07
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,4010%
121%
227%
321%
412%
5+10%
Under 2,557%
–
Over 2,543%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Shonan Bellmare or draw (1X)70%
- Under 2.5 goals57%
- Hiroto Yamada to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals43%
- Hiroto Yamada to score23%
- Yuta Fukazawa to be booked24%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Shonan Bellmare
Albirex Niigata
Shonan Bellmare (9–7)
Albirex Niigata (8–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Shonan Bellmare
Albirex Niigata
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Shonan Bellmare
Albirex Niigata
| The goalkeepers | Kota Sanada (Shonan Bellmare) | Noam Baumann (Albirex Niigata) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 32 | 19 |
| Save % | 84% | 66% |
| xG prevented | 38% | 39% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Shonan Bellmare vs Albirex Niigata according to our model?
The model gives Shonan Bellmare a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Shonan Bellmare 42%, draw 29%, Albirex Niigata 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.