Montedio Yamagata vs Tokushima Vortis Prediction: Home win 41% (3 Nov 2026)

J2 League3 November 20266°3,4 mm17 km/h

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Montedio YamagataBalanced & physical

Tokushima VortisPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Montedio Yamagata (41%)

1 · Montedio Yamagata 41%X 28%31% Tokushima Vortis · 2

41%

28%

31%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Montedio Yamagata vs Tokushima Vortis (J2 League, Tuesday, 3 November 2026): Montedio Yamagata win 41%, draw 28%, Tokushima Vortis win 31%. Expected goals (xG): Montedio Yamagata 1.25, Tokushima Vortis 1.26. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Montedio Yamagata or draw 69%, Tokushima Vortis or draw 59%. Prediction updated Monday, 26 October 2026.

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Analysis: Montedio Yamagata – Tokushima Vortis

Marcus Johansson · 26 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The text contains an unsupported claim: specific betting odds ("2.44 with Bet365") are not part of the provided facts and appear fabricated.

CORRECTED TEXT:

Montedio Yamagata's balanced and physical approach meets Tokushima Vortis's preference for possession control in a J2 League clash that offers more intrigue beneath the surface stats. Despite Tokushima having an edge in recent head-to-heads with three wins out of six since 2023, the home side’s underlying numbers suggest resilience and the potential for surprise.

Montedio's xG per match of 1.2 and xGA of 1.2 highlight a squad capable of creating and conceding in equal measure. This balance is slightly tipped in their favor when considering Tokushima's lower xG of 0.76 per match, indicating the visitors might struggle to break down a robust Yamagata defense—particularly in the expected rainy conditions, which are known to impact scoring opportunities adversely.

Interestingly, while Tokushima holds a slight advantage in points (17 to Montedio's 13), the xPoints metric paints a different picture. Montedio's xPoints tally of 13.7 surpasses Tokushima's 12.5, challenging the narrative of Tokushima's dominance. This suggests that Montedio might have been somewhat unfortunate in converting their performances into results thus far—a factor worth considering when assessing potential outcomes.

The most likely scorelines according to the model, 1-1, 0-1, and 1-0, all hover around the lower end of the scoring spectrum. This aligns with the model's lean towards Montedio and the over/under 2.5 goals probability, set at 46%, indicating a slight preference for a game with fewer goals.

Given the expected tight contest and the impact of the weather, backing Montedio Yamagata to edge a narrow victory might just be the shrewd play.

Montedio Yamagata

Form LWLLD

League ranking xG #11xGA #13xT #10xP/match #14Points #15

Key players

Ryotaro NakamuraCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.06
Hayate SugiiLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.20
Ayumu KawaiRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.19

Tokushima Vortis

Form LLDLW

League ranking xG #20xGA #14xT #19xP/match #20Points #9

Key players

Daiki WatariFxG 0.18 · xT 0.05
Ken IwaoCAMxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
Kohei YamakoshiCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Montedio Yamagata – Tokushima Vortis

Predicted score matrix

Tokushima Vortis →

Montedio Yamagata →

0–08.5%

0–19.8%

0–26.4%

0–32.7%

0–4+1.1%

1–09.8%

1–113.2%

1–28.0%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.4%

2–06.4%

2–18.0%

2–25.0%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.9%

3–02.7%

3–13.3%

3–22.1%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.4%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-010%
4.0-09%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,25–1,26

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

–

Over 2,546%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Montedio Yamagata or draw (1X)64%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Montedio Yamagata or draw (1X)64%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Junya Takahashi to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Junya Takahashi to score21%
Shunto Kodama to be booked21%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Montedio Yamagata 1Draw 2Tokushima Vortis 3

Goals: 3–5 (⌀ 1,3)

Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.

Key facts

Tokushima Vortis dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Montedio Yamagata

Tokushima Vortis

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Montedio Yamagata (11–9)

Tokushima Vortis (11–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Montedio Yamagata

Tokushima Vortis

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Montedio Yamagata

Tokushima Vortis

The teams in numbers

Performance	Montedio Yamagata	Tokushima Vortis
Points	13	17
xPoints	13.7	12.5
xG per match	1.2	0.76
xGA per match	1.2	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.11
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.17

Playing style	Montedio Yamagata	Tokushima Vortis
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.3
Field tilt	0.48	0.4
xT per match	0.95	0.69
xTA per match	1	0.96
Won balls, offensive half	18	15
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.25
Entries into the box per match	13	8
Entries into the box against	16	11
Pass completion %	0.78	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.75
Passes per match	391	368
Passes against per match	359	348
Switches of play per match	21.4	27.7
Long balls per match	33	39

Set pieces	Montedio Yamagata	Tokushima Vortis
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.03
Corners per match	5	3.6
Corners against per match	5	4.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.68

Other	Montedio Yamagata	Tokushima Vortis
Throw-in control	0.76	0.79

The goalkeepers	Ryusei Sato (Montedio Yamagata)	Kai Chidi Kitamura (Tokushima Vortis)
Saves	38	44
Save %	83%	77%
xG prevented	64%	65%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Montedio Yamagata

Fixtures, form & tips

Tokushima Vortis

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Montedio Yamagata vs Tokushima Vortis according to our model?

The model gives Montedio Yamagata a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Montedio Yamagata 41%, draw 28%, Tokushima Vortis 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Montedio Yamagata vs Tokushima Vortis?

The model expects 1.25 goals (xG) for Montedio Yamagata and 1.26 for Tokushima Vortis, 2.51 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Montedio Yamagata or draw (1X) 69%, Tokushima Vortis or draw (X2) 59% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.