01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Cruz Azul to win76%
- Over 1.5 goals86%
Liga MX17°13,3 mm8 km/h
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Cruz AzulPossession & high pressvs
Santos LagunaCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Cruz Azul (76%)
Cruz Azul – Santos Laguna · Liga MX
1 · Cruz Azul 76%X 15%9% Santos Laguna · 2
76%
15%
Analysis: Cruz Azul – Santos Laguna
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The hosts winning all four encounters since 2023" is not fully supported since the head-to-head data doesn't specify venue for each match. Here's the corrected text:
Cruz Azul's dominance over Santos Laguna has been stark, with Cruz Azul winning all four encounters since 2023. This pattern aligns neatly with the current model probabilities that heavily favor Cruz Azul at 76%. The numbers draw a picture of a match where the home side is expected to control the game, likely overpowering the visitors with their high-pressing possession game. The most probable scorelines are 2-0 or 3-0, reflecting Cruz Azul's superior squad and tactical approach.
Santos Laguna's struggle this season is evident, with only a single point on the board, starkly contrasting Cruz Azul's nine. Despite this, the visitors' counter-attacking style can create moments of danger, accounting for the 52% chance of both teams finding the net. However, the expected goals tilt heavily towards Cruz Azul with 2.65, compared to Santos' meager 0.81. This suggests that while Laguna might have fleeting opportunities, their overall offensive threat remains limited.
The prospect of over 2.5 goals sits at 67%, hinting that bettors might lean towards a higher goal tally, although Cruz Azul's defensive competency could suppress this. On a rainy matchday with expected showers, the fluidity of the game might be slightly hindered, yet this aspect is already factored into the projections, maintaining the expected goal distribution.
For bettors, the value play is crystal clear. With Cruz Azul's win probability assessed at 76%, the odds of 1.43 available at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet provide an attractive 8% edge. This makes backing the home win a compelling proposition. As the hosts look to extend their unbeaten record against Santos, the numbers strongly suggest a decisive victory for Cruz Azul.
Cruz AzulForm WLLLW
League ranking xG #3xGA #10xT #2xP/match #10Points #9
Key players
- Nicolás Alejandro IbáñezFxG 0.43 · xT 0.00
- Carlos RotondiLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.12
- Carlos RodriguezCAMxG 0.07 · xT 0.42
Santos LagunaForm LLLLD
League ranking xG #14xGA #13xT #4xP/match #17Points #17
Key players
- Ezequiel Eduardo BullaudeFxG 0.25 · xT 0.00
- Emmanuel EcheverriaLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.23
- Fran VillalbaCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.16
Match prediction: Cruz Azul – Santos Laguna
Predicted score matrix
Santos Laguna →
Cruz Azul →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.4%
0–12.3%
0–21.0%
0–30.3%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–08.2%
1–16.9%
1–22.7%
1–30.7%
1–4+0.2%
2
2–011.1%
2–18.9%
2–23.6%
2–31.0%
2–4+0.2%
3
3–09.8%
3–17.9%
3–23.2%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–012.3%
4+–19.9%
4+–24.0%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-011%
- 2.3-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.3-18%
Expected goals
2,65–0,81
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,50
111%
219%
322%
419%
5+27%
Under 2,533%
@2.75
Over 2,567%
@1.41
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Cruz Azul to win76%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- José Antonio Paradela to score57%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- José Antonio Paradela to score57%
- Franco Emanuel Pardo to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Cruz Azul76% probability@1.40BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
- 1 · Cruz Azul76% probability@1.40BetssonEV+6%reference odds
- 1 · Cruz Azul76% probability@1.40NordicbetEV+6%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Cruz Azul | X | 2 · Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 6% 1.40 | 4.55 | 6.80 |
| Betsson | EV+ 6% 1.40 | 4.55 | 6.80 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 6% 1.40 | 4.55 | 6.80 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 6% 1.40 | 5.08 | 6.76 |
Odds updated 5 Sept, 12:33
Odds movement
1-2 %
69 %64 %
1.43 → 1.40
X+2 %
21 %16 %
4.96 → 5.08
2+7 %
17 %12 %
6.32 → 6.76
Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesCruz Azul 4Draw 0Santos Laguna 0
Goals: 8–3 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.
Key facts
- CD Cruz Azul win 64% of their home matches all-time (45 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Cruz Azul
Santos Laguna
Cruz Azul (11–11)
Santos Laguna (4–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Cruz Azul
Santos Laguna
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Cruz Azul
Santos Laguna
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Cruz Azul | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 1 |
| xPoints | 8.1 | 6 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.31 | 0.12 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.38 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Cruz Azul | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.67 | 0.49 |
| xT per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.94 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 410 | 400 |
| Passes against per match | 283 | 395 |
| Switches of play per match | 37 | 38.2 |
| Long balls per match | 39 | 42 |
| Set pieces | Cruz Azul | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 6.4 | 7.4 |
| Corners against per match | 4.6 | 5 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| Other | Cruz Azul | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| The goalkeepers | Kevin Mier (Cruz Azul) | Carlos Acevedo (Santos Laguna) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 15 | 28 |
| Save % | 65% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 42% | 45% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna according to our model?
The model gives Cruz Azul a 76% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cruz Azul 76%, draw 15%, Santos Laguna 9%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.