Ekstraklasa14°19 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Zagłębie LubinZagłębie LubinLow block & direct
    vs
    Wisła PłockWisła PłockCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Zagłębie Lubin (48%)

    Zagłębie Lubin – Wisła Płock · Ekstraklasa

    1 · Zagłębie Lubin 48%X 28%24% Wisła Płock · 2

    Analysis: Zagłębie Lubin – Wisła Płock

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Zagłębie Lubin's 48% probability of winning stands out as the strongest number in this matchup against Wisła Płock. Despite a balanced head-to-head record since 2023, with each team claiming a win in their only two encounters, the hosts have been more consistent in securing points and in expected points, with 9 and 9.6 respectively, compared to the visitors' 5 and 7.6.

    The expected goals model suggests a tight contest, forecasting Zagłębie Lubin to score 1.45 goals against Wisła Płock's 1.01. This aligns with the most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 13%, marginally ahead of a 1-0 home victory at 12%. The under 2.5 goals scenario edges out the over with a 55% probability, hinting at a potentially restrained affair, especially given Zagłębie's defensive control.

    Overall, the model points to Zagłębie Lubin as the favourite, underscoring the hosts' perceived edge in a match where defensive solidity might decide the outcome.

    Zagłębie LubinZagłębie Lubin
    Form LWDDD
    League ranking xG #15xGA #2xT #13xP/match #3Points #8
    Key players
    • Marcel RegulaFxG 0.33 · xT 0.11
    • Mateusz GrzybekRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.19
    • Mihael MlinaricFxG 0.05 · xT 0.00
    Wisła PłockWisła Płock
    Form DLLLD
    League ranking xG #11xGA #15xT #15xP/match #14Points #16
    Key players
    • Marcus Haglind SangreCBxG 0.16 · xT 0.06
    • Jorge JimenezFxG 0.09 · xT 0.10
    • Žan RogeljRBxG 0.16 · xT 0.06

    Match prediction: Zagłębie Lubin – Wisła Płock

    Predicted score matrix

    Wisła Płock →
    Zagłębie Lubin →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.9%
    0–18.3%
    0–24.3%
    0–31.5%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–012.0%
    1–112.9%
    1–26.3%
    1–32.1%
    1–4+0.7%
    2
    2–09.0%
    2–19.1%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–04.3%
    3–14.4%
    3–22.2%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–02.2%
    4+–12.2%
    4+–21.1%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.0-09%
    Expected goals
    1,45–1,01
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,555%
    –
    Over 2,545%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Zagłębie Lubin to win48%
    • Under 3.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    34%

    Fair odds

    2.90

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Zagłębie Lubin to win48%
    • Under 2.5 goals55%
    • Josip Ćorluka to score33%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals45%
    • Josip Ćorluka to score33%
    • Gustav Marcus Haglind-Sangre to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Zagłębie Lubin 1Draw 0Wisła Płock 1
    Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Zagłębie Lubin
    Wisła Płock
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Zagłębie Lubin (6–5)
    Wisła Płock (4–11)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Zagłębie Lubin
    Aleks Lawniczak: 165 passningar, xT 0.42LawniczakFilip Kocaba: 121 passningar, xT 0.24KocabaDamian Michalski: 120 passningar, xT -0.09MichalskiZlatan Alomerović: 110 passningar, xT 0.1AlomerovićMichal Nalepa: 98 passningar, xT 0.61NalepaSebastian Kerk: 85 passningar, xT 0.26KerkMateusz Grzybek: 81 passningar, xT 0.31GrzybekJosip Corluka: 76 passningar, xT 0.17CorlukaRoman Yakuba: 74 passningar, xT 0.72YakubaDamian Dabrowski: 74 passningar, xT 0.11DabrowskiJakub Kolan: 72 passningar, xT 0.8Kolan
    Wisła Płock
    Marcin Kaminski: 235 passningar, xT 0.18KaminskiMarcus Haglind Sangre: 222 passningar, xT 0.38SangreAdam Radwanski: 210 passningar, xT 0.56RadwanskiŽan Rogelj: 176 passningar, xT 0.29RogeljRafal Leszczynski: 154 passningar, xT 0.21LeszczynskiAfonso Rodrigues e Silva: 152 passningar, xT 0.39SilvaPatryk Kun: 130 passningar, xT 0.98KunDion Gallapeni: 100 passningar, xT 0.57GallapeniKrystian Pomorski: 70 passningar, xT 0.03PomorskiDani Pacheco: 65 passningar, xT 0.1PachecoJorge Jimenez: 61 passningar, xT 0.37Jimenez
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Zagłębie Lubin
    Aleks Lawniczak: 165 passningar, xT 0.42LawniczakFilip Kocaba: 121 passningar, xT 0.24KocabaDamian Michalski: 120 passningar, xT -0.09MichalskiZlatan Alomerović: 110 passningar, xT 0.1AlomerovićMichal Nalepa: 98 passningar, xT 0.61NalepaSebastian Kerk: 85 passningar, xT 0.26KerkMateusz Grzybek: 81 passningar, xT 0.31GrzybekJosip Corluka: 76 passningar, xT 0.17CorlukaRoman Yakuba: 74 passningar, xT 0.72YakubaDamian Dabrowski: 74 passningar, xT 0.11DabrowskiJakub Kolan: 72 passningar, xT 0.8Kolan
    Wisła Płock
    Marcin Kaminski: 235 passningar, xT 0.18KaminskiMarcus Haglind Sangre: 222 passningar, xT 0.38SangreAdam Radwanski: 210 passningar, xT 0.56RadwanskiŽan Rogelj: 176 passningar, xT 0.29RogeljRafal Leszczynski: 154 passningar, xT 0.21LeszczynskiAfonso Rodrigues e Silva: 152 passningar, xT 0.39SilvaPatryk Kun: 130 passningar, xT 0.98KunDion Gallapeni: 100 passningar, xT 0.57GallapeniKrystian Pomorski: 70 passningar, xT 0.03PomorskiDani Pacheco: 65 passningar, xT 0.1PachecoJorge Jimenez: 61 passningar, xT 0.37Jimenez

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceZagłębie LubinWisła Płock
    Points95
    xPoints9.67.6
    xG per match1.31.6
    xGA per match1.11.9
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.250.16
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.120.35
    Playing styleZagłębie LubinWisła Płock
    Build-up efficiency0.280.33
    Field tilt0.320.42
    xT per match10.91
    xTA per match0.931.1
    Won balls, offensive half2628
    Pressing intensity0.250.26
    Pressing efficiency0.30.26
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.250.27
    Entries into the box per match1415
    Entries into the box against1612
    Pass completion %0.70.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.640.68
    Passes per match250355
    Passes against per match346346
    Switches of play per match25.628.1
    Long balls per match3628
    Set piecesZagłębie LubinWisła Płock
    xG from free kicks0.010.19
    Corners per match3.67.4
    Corners against per match7.13.7
    xG per corner0.060.04
    xGA per corner against0.020.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.320.48
    First touch, defensive corners %0.630.59
    OtherZagłębie LubinWisła Płock
    Throw-in control0.850.84
    The goalkeepersZlatan Alomerović (Zagłębie Lubin)Rafal Leszczynski (Wisła Płock)
    Saves1315
    Save %87%58%
    xG prevented56%41%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Zagłębie Lubin
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Wisła Płock
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Zagłębie Lubin vs Wisła Płock according to our model?

    The model gives Zagłębie Lubin a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Zagłębie Lubin 48%, draw 28%, Wisła Płock 24%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Postponed — now 15 September

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.