01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Aberdeen or draw (1X)69%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Scottish PremiershipPittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen10°30 km/h
Läs på svenska
AberdeenCounter-attacks & crossesvs
St. MirrenPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Aberdeen (38%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · St. Mirren @ 4.25 (+44 %)
Aberdeen vs St. Mirren · Scottish Premiership
1 · Aberdeen 38%X 28%34% St. Mirren · 2
38%
28%
34%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Aberdeen vs St. Mirren (Scottish Premiership, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Aberdeen win 38%, draw 28%, St. Mirren win 34%. Expected goals (xG): Aberdeen 1.37, St. Mirren 1.14. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Aberdeen or draw 66%, St. Mirren or draw 62%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Aberdeen – St. Mirren
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Aberdeen's clash with St. Mirren carries a curious tension between historical dominance and current form. While the visitors have historically had the upper hand in this fixture, winning five of the last eight encounters, they arrive burdened by a three-match losing streak. The model slightly leans towards a home win, assigning Aberdeen a 38% chance of victory, but the numbers tell a more nuanced story.
The expected goals metrics suggest a tight contest, with Aberdeen at 1.37 and St. Mirren at 1.14. The most probable scorelines reflect this narrow margin: a 1-1 draw leads the way at 13%, followed by a slender 1-0 to the hosts at 11%. With both teams likely to find the net, reflected in a 51% chance for both teams to score, a low-scoring affair seems likely. The weather, with rain predicted, might further suppress goal-scoring opportunities, but this is already considered in the model's output.
Despite their recent struggles, St. Mirren's playing style of possession control could disrupt Aberdeen's counter-attacking and crossing strategy. While the visitors have a slight advantage in xG per match at 1.4 compared to Aberdeen's 0.99, defensively, the hosts concede slightly less on average. This balance suggests a closely fought battle rather than a decisive win for either side.
Value bettors might find interest in several angles here. The draw at odds of 3.7 with LeoVegas offers a 5% edge, aligning neatly with the statistical likelihood of a stalemate. Similarly, backing St. Mirren to break their losing streak carries a 28% edge with odds at 3.8, making it an enticing option for those expecting a turnaround. However, the strongest play might be the under 2.5 goals at 1.952, where a 6% edge underlines the expectation of a cagey encounter.
AberdeenForm LLDWD
League ranking xG #10xGA #9xT #10xP/match #10Points #7
Key players
- Kevin Michael NisbetFxG 0.40 · xT 0.00
- Stuart ArmstrongCAMxG 0.03 · xT 0.10
- Ayoub MoulouaFxG 0.29 · xT 0.02
St. MirrenForm DWLLL
League ranking xG #6xGA #10xT #6xP/match #6Points #5
Key players
- Fraser TaylorCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.17
- Eseosa SuleFxG 0.18 · xT 0.07
- Ryan George CarrCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Aberdeen – St. Mirren
Predicted score matrix
St. Mirren →
Aberdeen →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.5%
0–18.9%
0–25.3%
0–32.0%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–010.7%
1–113.1%
1–27.2%
1–32.8%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–07.6%
2–18.7%
2–25.0%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–03.5%
3–14.0%
3–22.3%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.6%
4+–11.8%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,37–1,14
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@1.98EV+7%
Over 2,546%
@1.78
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Aberdeen or draw (1X)69%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Kevin Michael Nisbet to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Kevin Michael Nisbet to score30%
- Paul Nsio to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · St. Mirren34% probability@4.25BetsafeEV+44%reference odds
- 2 · St. Mirren34% probability@4.25NordicbetEV+44%reference odds
- 2 · St. Mirren34% probability@3.80LeoVegasEV+28%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Aberdeen | X | 2 · St. Mirren |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.78 | 3.45 | EV+ 44% 4.25 |
| LeoVegas | 1.77 | EV+ 5% 3.70 | EV+ 28% 3.80 |
| Nordicbet | 1.78 | 3.45 | EV+ 44% 4.25 |
Odds updated 9 Oct, 17:38
Odds movement
1-1 %
54 %49 %
1.80 → 1.78
X0 %
29 %24 %
3.45 → 3.45
2+4 %
25 %20 %
4.10 → 4.25
Over 2,5+2 %
55 %50 %
1.75 → 1.78
Nordicbet · 2 recorded price levels · 09/10/2026 → 09/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesAberdeen 2Draw 1St. Mirren 5
Goals: 8–14 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.
Key facts
- St. Mirren dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 2 in 8 meetings.
- St. Mirren have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Aberdeen
St. Mirren
Aberdeen (7–8)
St. Mirren (8–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Aberdeen
St. Mirren
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Aberdeen
St. Mirren
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Aberdeen | St. Mirren |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 10 |
| xPoints | 7.6 | 9.8 |
| xG per match | 0.99 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.11 | 0.31 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| Playing style | Aberdeen | St. Mirren |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| Field tilt | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| xT per match | 0.68 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.91 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 306 | 357 |
| Passes against per match | 410 | 383 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.6 | 23.5 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Aberdeen | St. Mirren |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.2 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 5.2 | 4.5 |
| Corners against per match | 7.2 | 7.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.52 |
| Other | Aberdeen | St. Mirren |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Marius Müller (Aberdeen) | Jacob Anthony Chapman (St. Mirren) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 31 | 26 |
| Save % | 80% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 49% | 83% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Aberdeen vs St. Mirren according to our model?
The model gives Aberdeen a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Aberdeen 38%, draw 28%, St. Mirren 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Aberdeen vs St. Mirren?
The model expects 1.37 goals (xG) for Aberdeen and 1.14 for St. Mirren, 2.51 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Aberdeen or draw (1X) 66%, St. Mirren or draw (X2) 62% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.