Kilmarnock vs Motherwell Prediction: Away win 52% (17 Oct 2026)

Scottish Premiership17 October 2026 16:00 CESTRugby Park, Kilmarnock11°0,4 mm22 km/h

Läs på svenska

KilmarnockLow block & direct

MotherwellPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Motherwell (52%)

1 · Kilmarnock 25%X 24%52% Motherwell · 2

25%

24%

52%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Kilmarnock vs Motherwell (Scottish Premiership, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Kilmarnock win 25%, draw 24%, Motherwell win 52%. Expected goals (xG): Kilmarnock 1.17, Motherwell 1.87. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Kilmarnock or draw 48%, Motherwell or draw 75%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Kilmarnock – Motherwell

Erik Lindberg · 9 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Motherwell's possession-based, high-pressing style goes head-to-head with a Kilmarnock side that leans heavily on a low defensive block and direct play. This contrast sets the stage for an intriguing clash in the Scottish Premiership. While Motherwell's recent form is a concern, having lost three on the trot, their superior overall quality and tactical approach point to them holding the upper hand in this encounter. The numbers back this up, with Motherwell showing a 52% win probability according to the model.

Despite Motherwell's recent losing streak, they have dominated Kilmarnock historically, with three wins in their last seven encounters since 2023. However, the sample size isn't vast enough to outweigh the current form and expected goals, which favor Motherwell. Kilmarnock, on the other hand, have managed just one win in those seven matches. The data suggests Motherwell's tactical edge should help them over the line, particularly given their stronger expected goals tally of 1.87 compared to Kilmarnock's 1.17.

The likelihood of goals is moderately high, with a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring. However, Kilmarnock's defensive frailties, reflected in their expected goals against of 2.4 per match, could be their undoing against a Motherwell side that looks more threatening going forward. Yet, a 1-1 draw remains slightly more probable than a narrow Motherwell win, adding a layer of complexity to predicting the scoreline.

The sharpest betting angle lies in the value on Motherwell at odds of 2.08 with LeoVegas, given the model's 52% win probability for them—a 7% edge. This play aligns well with the numbers and the likely game dynamics, promising a calculated yet profitable approach in what could otherwise be a tightly contested match.

Kilmarnock

Form LLDWD

League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #8xP/match #12Points #12

Key players

Greg KiltieRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.11
Joseph Brennen HugillFxG 0.21 · xT 0.00
George StangerCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.03

Motherwell

Form DWLLL

League ranking xG #7xGA #6xT #5xP/match #11Points #8

Key players

Emmanuel LongeloLWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.31
Ibrahim SaidFxG 0.08 · xT 0.07
Lukas FadingerCDMxG 0.19 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Kilmarnock – Motherwell

Predicted score matrix

Motherwell →

Kilmarnock →

0–05.1%

0–18.6%

0–28.3%

0–35.2%

0–4+3.7%

1–05.3%

1–110.8%

1–29.8%

1–36.1%

1–4+4.3%

2–03.3%

2–16.1%

2–25.7%

2–33.6%

2–4+2.5%

3–01.3%

3–12.4%

3–22.2%

3–31.4%

3–4+1.0%

4+–00.5%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-210%
3.0-19%
4.0-28%
5.2-16%

Expected goals

1,17–1,87

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,541%

@2.08

Over 2,559%

@1.70

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Motherwell to win52%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Motherwell to win52%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise to score23%
Thomas Richard Lowery to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Motherwell52% probability@2.15BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
2 · Motherwell52% probability@2.15NordicbetEV+11%reference odds
2 · Motherwell52% probability@2.08LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Kilmarnock	X	2 · Motherwell
Betsafe	3.05	3.40	EV+ 11% 2.15
LeoVegas	3.05	3.45	EV+ 7% 2.08
Nordicbet	3.05	3.40	EV+ 11% 2.15

Odds updated 9 Oct, 11:38

Odds movement

1+3 %

33 %28 %

2.95 → 3.05

X-1 %

29 %24 %

3.45 → 3.40

2-3 %

45 %40 %

2.22 → 2.15

Over 2,50 %

58 %53 %

1.70 → 1.70

Nordicbet · 2 recorded price levels · 09/10/2026 → 09/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Kilmarnock 1Draw 3Motherwell 3

Goals: 6–13 (⌀ 2,7)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

Key facts

Motherwell Football Club dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 7 meetings.
Motherwell Football Club have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Kilmarnock

Motherwell

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Kilmarnock (6–15)

Motherwell (9–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Kilmarnock

Motherwell

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Kilmarnock

Motherwell

The teams in numbers

Performance	Kilmarnock	Motherwell
Points	5	8
xPoints	6.5	7.5
xG per match	0.94	1.4
xGA per match	2.4	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.45	0.35

Playing style	Kilmarnock	Motherwell
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.33
Field tilt	0.38	0.66
xT per match	0.92	1.1
xTA per match	1.7	0.84
Won balls, offensive half	23	22
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.24
Entries into the box per match	11	15
Entries into the box against	18	14
Pass completion %	0.71	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.79
Passes per match	303	528
Passes against per match	459	304
Switches of play per match	26.2	29.6
Long balls per match	33	27

Set pieces	Kilmarnock	Motherwell
xG from free kicks	0	0.03
Corners per match	4.9	5.6
Corners against per match	6.9	5.6
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.56
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.68

Other	Kilmarnock	Motherwell
Throw-in control	0.74	0.81

The goalkeepers	Maksymilian Stryjek (Kilmarnock)	Alexander Noah Paulsen (Motherwell)
Saves	26	19
Save %	67%	63%
xG prevented	47%	36%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Kilmarnock

Fixtures, form & tips

Motherwell

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Kilmarnock vs Motherwell according to our model?

The model gives Motherwell a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kilmarnock 25%, draw 24%, Motherwell 52%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Kilmarnock vs Motherwell?

The model expects 1.17 goals (xG) for Kilmarnock and 1.87 for Motherwell, 3.04 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Kilmarnock or draw (1X) 48%, Motherwell or draw (X2) 75% and no draw (12) 76%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.