01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Dundee United or draw (X2)65%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Scottish PremiershipMcDiarmid Park, Perth9°21 km/h
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St. JohnstonePossession & high pressvs
Dundee UnitedPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Dundee United (38%)Soft draw
St. Johnstone vs Dundee United · Scottish Premiership
1 · St. Johnstone 35%X 27%38% Dundee United · 2
35%
27%
38%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for St. Johnstone vs Dundee United (Scottish Premiership, Saturday, 17 October 2026): St. Johnstone win 35%, draw 27%, Dundee United win 38%. Expected goals (xG): St. Johnstone 1.37, Dundee United 1.47. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: St. Johnstone or draw 62%, Dundee United or draw 65%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: St. Johnstone – Dundee United
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Dundee United's recent dominance over St. Johnstone can't be ignored: three wins from their last three encounters. However, the head-to-head sample is small, giving us reason to weigh current form and expected goals more heavily. The model slightly favors the visitors with a 38% probability, and their edge in xG per match (1.7 vs. 1.2) suggests a slight upper hand in offensive potential.
The hosts, St. Johnstone, exhibit a possession and high press style, which should, in theory, control the game. Yet, their xG within eight seconds of winning the ball (0.17) trails behind Dundee United’s 0.27, indicating a less effective transition play. This could allow Dundee United, who excel at possession control, to exploit any gaps left by the hosts' aggressive approach.
With expected goals nearly balanced (1.37 for St. Johnstone vs. 1.47 for Dundee United), and xPoints showing a razor-thin edge for the hosts (8.9 vs. 8.8), the game promises to be tightly contested. The most probable scorelines, 1-1 and 1-2, highlight the possibility of a narrow margin. But, with a higher percentage leaning over 2.5 goals (54%) and both teams likely to score (58%), goals could flow more freely than the defenses might prefer.
Despite the balance, a clear betting angle emerges: Dundee United at odds 2.8 with LeoVegas is value-positive (EV+). The model's 38% probability suggests a 6% advantage over the bookmaker’s implied probability. It's a calculated risk, but one that aligns with the numbers pointing to a 1-2 victory for the visitors.
St. JohnstoneForm LDWLD
League ranking xG #9xGA #4xT #9xP/match #7Points #6
Key players
- Matthew Colin FouldsLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.20
- Enes AlićLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.18
- Zach MitchellCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
Dundee UnitedForm LWLDW
League ranking xG #5xGA #11xT #3xP/match #8Points #9
Key players
- Jesse Carmichael RandallRWxG 0.30 · xT 0.21
- Vicko SeveljCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.19
- Dylan TaitCDMxG 0.11 · xT 0.16
Match prediction: St. Johnstone – Dundee United
Predicted score matrix
Dundee United →
St. Johnstone →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.2%
0–18.3%
0–26.3%
0–33.1%
0–4+1.6%
1
1–07.7%
1–112.1%
1–28.6%
1–34.2%
1–4+2.1%
2
2–05.5%
2–18.1%
2–25.9%
2–32.9%
2–4+1.5%
3
3–02.5%
3–13.7%
3–22.7%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–01.2%
4+–11.7%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.2-18%
- 5.1-08%
Expected goals
1,37–1,47
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.02
Over 2,554%
@1.75
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Dundee United or draw (X2)65%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Zachary Albert Sapsford to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Josh Fowler to score30%
- Jason Derek Holt to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Dundee United38% probability@2.90BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
- 2 · Dundee United38% probability@2.90NordicbetEV+10%reference odds
- 2 · Dundee United38% probability@2.80LeoVegasEV+6%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · St. Johnstone | X | 2 · Dundee United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.25 | 3.40 | EV+ 10% 2.90 |
| LeoVegas | 2.20 | 3.45 | EV+ 6% 2.80 |
| Nordicbet | 2.25 | 3.40 | EV+ 10% 2.90 |
Odds updated 9 Oct, 17:38
Odds movement
10 %
43 %38 %
2.25 → 2.25
X-1 %
29 %24 %
3.45 → 3.40
2+2 %
35 %30 %
2.85 → 2.90
Over 2,5+2 %
56 %51 %
1.72 → 1.75
Nordicbet · 2 recorded price levels · 09/10/2026 → 09/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesSt. Johnstone 0Draw 0Dundee United 3
Goals: 1–5 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
St. Johnstone
Dundee United
St. Johnstone (9–10)
Dundee United (9–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
St. Johnstone
Dundee United
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
St. Johnstone
Dundee United
The teams in numbers
| Performance | St. Johnstone | Dundee United |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 8 |
| xPoints | 8.9 | 8.8 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.24 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | St. Johnstone | Dundee United |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.52 | 0.41 |
| xT per match | 0.73 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 0.92 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 387 | 332 |
| Passes against per match | 395 | 349 |
| Switches of play per match | 22.3 | 31.8 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 33 |
| Set pieces | St. Johnstone | Dundee United |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 3.4 | 6.1 |
| Corners against per match | 6.3 | 6.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.63 |
| Other | St. Johnstone | Dundee United |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Toby Peter Gary Steward (St. Johnstone) | Jack Walton (Dundee United) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 29 | 24 |
| Save % | 78% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 61% | 53% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins St. Johnstone vs Dundee United according to our model?
The model gives Dundee United a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: St. Johnstone 35%, draw 27%, Dundee United 38%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in St. Johnstone vs Dundee United?
The model expects 1.37 goals (xG) for St. Johnstone and 1.47 for Dundee United, 2.83 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
St. Johnstone or draw (1X) 62%, Dundee United or draw (X2) 65% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.