01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Celtic to win61%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Scottish PremiershipCeltic Park, Glasgow10°17 km/h
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CelticPossession & high pressvs
HeartsPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Celtic (61%)Best value by the model: 2 · Hearts @ 6.30 (+17 %)
Celtic vs Hearts · Scottish Premiership
1 · Celtic 61%X 21%19% Hearts · 2
61%
21%
19%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Celtic vs Hearts (Scottish Premiership, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Celtic win 61%, draw 21%, Hearts win 19%. Expected goals (xG): Celtic 2.02, Hearts 1.19. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 61%. Double chance: Celtic or draw 81%, Hearts or draw 39%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Celtic – Hearts
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: Celtic's commanding 61% win probability sets the stage at Celtic Park, where they historically claim victory in 80% of their fixtures. Their possession-heavy, high-pressing style is a strategic pillar, consistently yielding a higher xG per match compared to Hearts. The hosts' expected goals tally of 2.02 suggests a potent attacking performance, although Hearts' scoring streak—finding the net in 15 consecutive league matches—indicates potential resistance.
The visitors, despite their propensity for possession control, face an uphill battle. Hearts' xG of 1.19 per game pales next to Celtic's, and their all-time record in this fixture isn't encouraging, with only two wins in the last seven meetings. Yet, their ability to score consistently keeps them in contention, aligning with the model’s 61% likelihood for both teams to score. This match features a high-scoring precedent, averaging 3.6 goals historically, yet the predicted 2.4 mm of rain could temper goal-scoring exploits.
For the bettors, the model suggests a slight lean towards a 2-1 or 2-0 scoreline in favor of Celtic, with a noteworthy over 2.5 goals sitting at 62%, given the consistent offensive output from both sides.
CelticForm WWWWL
League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Camilo Andres Durán MarquezFxG 0.46 · xT 0.14
- Hyun-Jun YangLWxG 0.44 · xT 0.07
- Arne EngelsCMxG 0.19 · xT 0.31
HeartsForm WWWLD
League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #4xP/match #3Points #3
Key players
- James WilsonFxG 0.40 · xT 0.02
- Sabah KerjotaRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.07
- Jordi AltenaRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
Match prediction: Celtic – Hearts
Predicted score matrix
Hearts →
Celtic →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.3%
0–14.5%
0–22.9%
0–31.1%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–07.9%
1–110.0%
1–25.8%
1–32.3%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–08.2%
2–19.8%
2–25.8%
2–32.3%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–05.5%
3–16.6%
3–23.9%
3–31.6%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–04.5%
4+–15.3%
4+–23.2%
4+–31.3%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.2-08%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,02–1,19
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+22%
Under 2,538%
@2.63
Over 2,562%
@1.50
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Celtic to win61%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Kasper Waarts Thenza Høgh to score31%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Kasper Waarts Thenza Høgh to score31%
- Laurent Mendy to be booked27%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Hearts19% probability@6.30BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
- 2 · Hearts19% probability@6.30NordicbetEV+17%reference odds
- 2 · Hearts19% probability@6.25Bet365EV+16%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Celtic | X | 2 · Hearts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.44 | 4.50 | EV+ 16% 6.25 |
| Betsafe | 1.42 | 4.55 | EV+ 17% 6.30 |
| LeoVegas | 1.40 | 4.50 | EV+ 11% 6.00 |
| Nordicbet | 1.42 | 4.55 | EV+ 17% 6.30 |
Odds updated 9 Oct, 17:38
Statistics
Head-to-head
7 matchesCeltic 4Draw 1Hearts 2
Goals: 16–9 (⌀ 3,6)
Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.
Key facts
- Celtic FC dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 7 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.6 goals per meeting on average.
- Hearts have scored in 15 consecutive league matches.
- Celtic FC win 80% of their home matches all-time (61 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Celtic
Hearts
Celtic (14–4)
Hearts (14–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Celtic
Hearts
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Celtic
Hearts
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Celtic | Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 18 | 13 |
| xPoints | 12.9 | 11.4 |
| xG per match | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 0.95 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.69 | 0.27 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.08 | 0.25 |
| Playing style | Celtic | Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| xT per match | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.57 | 0.7 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 18 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.78 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 533 | 370 |
| Passes against per match | 304 | 289 |
| Switches of play per match | 33.9 | 39 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 41 |
| Set pieces | Celtic | Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 9.5 | 7.4 |
| Corners against per match | 4.2 | 3.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.46 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.75 |
| Other | Celtic | Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.79 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Viljami Sinisalo (Celtic) | Beau Reus (Hearts) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 22 | 9 |
| Save % | 88% | 56% |
| xG prevented | 57% | 26% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Celtic vs Hearts according to our model?
The model gives Celtic a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Celtic 61%, draw 21%, Hearts 19%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Celtic vs Hearts?
The model expects 2.02 goals (xG) for Celtic and 1.19 for Hearts, 3.21 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Celtic or draw (1X) 81%, Hearts or draw (X2) 39% and no draw (12) 79%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.