Celtic vs Hearts: Prediction & Odds (18 Oct 2026)

Scottish Premiership18 October 2026 16:00 CESTCeltic Park, Glasgow5°6 km/h

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CelticPossession & high press

7–1

HeartsPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Celtic (61%)Best value by the model: 2 · Hearts @ 6.25 (+16 %)

1 · Celtic 61%X 21%19% Hearts · 2

61%

21%

19%

Prediction summary

Final score 7–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Celtic vs Hearts (Scottish Premiership, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Celtic win 61%, draw 21%, Hearts win 19%. Expected goals (xG): Celtic 2.02, Hearts 1.19. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 61%. Double chance: Celtic or draw 81%, Hearts or draw 39%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Celtic – Hearts

Marcus Johansson · 16 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Celtic's high-press approach will likely be the decisive factor in their upcoming clash against Hearts. The hosts have a knack for converting turnovers into scoring opportunities, averaging an impressive 0.71 expected goals within eight seconds of winning the ball. This efficiency under pressure sets them apart from their opponents, whose numbers in the same metric lag significantly behind at 0.34. With the match expected to feature a lot of possession battles, Celtic’s ability to exploit quick transitions will be critical.

Despite Hearts' commendable ability to find the net in 16 consecutive league matches, their control-oriented style may struggle against a team that thrives on disrupting possession. While both teams are proficient in maintaining the ball, the home side's more dynamic and aggressive approach generally prevails in these contests. The model gives Celtic a 61% chance of victory, supported by their historical dominance in this matchup and their formidable home record. Winning 80% of their home matches is a testament to their fortress-like status, which Hearts will find challenging to breach.

The high-scoring nature of past encounters between these two is reflected in the 3.6 goals per meeting on average, aligning with the 62% probability of seeing more than 2.5 goals in this clash. While both teams to score is given a 61% likelihood, the visitors' defensive vulnerabilities could see them outmatched by Celtic's relentless pressure. The expected goals tally of 2.02 for the hosts compared to Hearts' 1.19 further underscores the attacking edge for the home side.

The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 2-1 suggest a competitive match, yet the 2-0 outcome remains plausible should the hosts assert their dominance. Given the attacking stats and recent trends, a 2-1 victory for Celtic seems the most probable result. The statistical lean supports the over 2.5 goals market, providing a compelling angle for those looking to capitalize on what promises to be a lively encounter.

Celtic

Form WWWLW

League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #1xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Liam ScalesLBxG 0.12 · xT 0.17
Hyun-Jun YangLWxG 0.44 · xT 0.07
Callum McgregorCDMxG 0.09 · xT 0.11

Hearts

Form WWLDW

League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #4xP/match #3Points #3

Key players

Harry MilneLBxG 0.10 · xT 0.26
Jordi AltenaRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.08
Joshua McPakeLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.25

Final score

7 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Celtic 61% · Draw 21% · Hearts 19%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - HeartsBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 12,43fair 14,32-13 %

Miss

Matchresultat - CelticBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,72fair 4,94-25 %

Hit

Match prediction: Celtic – Hearts

Predicted score matrix

Hearts →

Celtic →

0–04.3%

0–14.5%

0–22.9%

0–31.1%

0–4+0.4%

1–07.9%

1–110.0%

1–25.8%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.2%

2–19.8%

2–25.8%

2–32.3%

2–4+0.9%

3–05.5%

3–16.6%

3–23.9%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.6%

4+–04.5%

4+–15.3%

4+–23.2%

4+–31.3%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-110%
3.2-08%
4.1-08%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

2,02–1,19

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,538%

@2.68EV+1%

Over 2,562%

@1.50

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Celtic to win61%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Celtic to win61%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Alexander Mark David Oxlade-Chamberlain to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Alexander Mark David Oxlade-Chamberlain to score27%
Stuart John Findlay to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Hearts19% probability@6.25Bet365EV+16%reference odds
X · Draw21% probability@4.88PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
Under 3.560% probability@1.69PinnacleEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Celtic	X	2 · Hearts
Bet365	1.44	4.50	EV+ 16% 6.25
Betsafe	1.55	4.30	4.90
LeoVegas	1.55	4.40	4.75
Nordicbet	1.55	4.30	4.90
Pinnacle	1.55	EV+ 2% 4.88	5.16

Odds updated 18 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

1-2 %

63 %58 %

1.59 → 1.55

X+4 %

22 %17 %

4.68 → 4.88

2+12 %

22 %17 %

4.59 → 5.16

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Celtic 4Draw 1Hearts 2

Goals: 16–9 (⌀ 3,6)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

Key facts

Celtic FC dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 7 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.6 goals per meeting on average.
Hearts have scored in 16 consecutive league matches.
Celtic FC win 80% of their home matches all-time (61 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Celtic

Hearts

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Celtic (16–4)

Hearts (19–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Celtic

Hearts

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Celtic

Hearts

The teams in numbers

Performance	Celtic	Hearts
Points	21	16
xPoints	14.7	14.2
xG per match	2.7	1.9
xGA per match	1	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.71	0.34
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.07	0.26

Playing style	Celtic	Hearts
Build-up efficiency	0.37	0.33
Field tilt	0.7	0.61
xT per match	1.8	1.2
xTA per match	0.65	0.71
Won balls, offensive half	29	27
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.27
Entries into the box per match	20	15
Entries into the box against	11	10
Pass completion %	0.83	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.67
Passes per match	557	368
Passes against per match	310	297
Switches of play per match	36.3	39.4
Long balls per match	32	42

Set pieces	Celtic	Hearts
xG from free kicks	0	0.05
Corners per match	9.4	7.3
Corners against per match	3.9	3.2
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.55	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.77

Other	Celtic	Hearts
Throw-in control	0.81	0.77

The goalkeepers	Viljami Sinisalo (Celtic)	Beau Reus (Hearts)
Saves	24	10
Save %	89%	59%
xG prevented	68%	29%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Celtic

Fixtures, form & tips

Hearts

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Celtic vs Hearts according to our model?

The model gives Celtic a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Celtic 61%, draw 21%, Hearts 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Celtic vs Hearts?

The model expects 2.02 goals (xG) for Celtic and 1.19 for Hearts, 3.21 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Celtic or draw (1X) 81%, Hearts or draw (X2) 39% and no draw (12) 79%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.