Celtic vs Rangers: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Scottish Premiership20 September 2026 13:00 CESTCeltic Park, Glasgow13°1,7 mm28 km/h

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CelticPossession & high press

0–1

RangersPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Celtic (53%)

1 · Celtic 53%X 24%23% Rangers · 2

53%

24%

23%

Analysis: Celtic – Rangers

Oscar Nilsson · 19 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

The text contains one factual error: the head-to-head record (2W 3D 3L) is described as "a slight edge" for Celtic, but this record actually shows Celtic with more losses (3) than wins (2), which is a slight deficit, not an edge.

Corrected text:

Celtic's relentless run of form is hard to overlook. With 13 consecutive victories, the hosts are riding a wave of momentum that heavily influences this fixture. Their proficiency in front of goal is notable, having notched up goals in each of their last 13 league games. The model leans in their favor, giving them a 53% chance to claim victory over their arch-rivals.

While both sides adopt a similar playing style, characterized by possession and a high press, it's Celtic's execution that tilts the balance. They boast superior expected goals (xG) figures, averaging 2.9 per match compared to Rangers' 2.3. Meanwhile, on the defensive end, Celtic's expected goals against (xGA) stands at 0.9 per game, marginally better than Rangers' 1.1. These stats highlight the hosts as both the more potent and solid side.

The head-to-head record since 2023 adds an intriguing layer to the contest. Despite their current supremacy in the league, Celtic actually trail their opponents slightly in recent clashes, with 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses from 8 encounters. Yet, considering the small sample size, these past results weigh less heavily than the current form and underlying numbers.

Bookmakers have perhaps undervalued the home side. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offering odds of 2.22 on a Celtic win, the model identifies a substantial 18% value edge. This discrepancy suggests a keen opportunity for those seeking to capitalize on market inefficiencies.

Expect a match with goals, given the 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and both teams' attacking inclinations. The most likely outcomes, according to the model, are a 1-1 or 2-1 finish. However, with Celtic's recent dominance, a 2-0 victory for the hosts also emerges as a viable option. While history between the sides is close, current dynamics strongly favor Celtic, especially at the value odds on offer.

Celtic

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Kieran TierneyLWBxG 0.49 · xT 0.50
Kasper Waarts Thenza HøghFxG 1.21 · xT 0.01
Hyun-Jun YangLWxG 0.44 · xT 0.07

Rangers

Form LWWWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #2xP/match #2Points #2

Key players

Ryan Don NaderiFxG 0.67 · xT 0.08
Lawrence ShanklandFxG 0.57 · xT 0.07
Nicolas RaskinCMxG 0.31 · xT 0.09

Final score

0 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Celtic 53% · Draw 24% · Rangers 23%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - CelticBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,63fair 5,08+11 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Glasgow RangersBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,70fair 13,08-41 %

Miss

Match prediction: Celtic – Rangers

Predicted score matrix

Rangers →

Celtic →

0–04.3%

0–14.7%

0–23.1%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.5%

1–07.7%

1–110.1%

1–26.1%

1–32.5%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.9%

2–19.7%

2–26.0%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.0%

3–05.2%

3–16.4%

3–24.0%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.7%

4+–04.0%

4+–15.0%

4+–23.1%

4+–31.3%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-110%
3.2-08%
4.1-08%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,98–1,24

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,538%

@2.28

Over 2,562%

@1.62EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Celtic to win53%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Celtic to win53%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Erik Benjamin Nygren to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Erik Benjamin Nygren to score26%
Cameron Peter Devlin to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Celtic53% probability@2.25BetsafeEV+20%reference odds
1 · Celtic53% probability@2.25BetssonEV+20%reference odds
1 · Celtic53% probability@2.25NordicbetEV+20%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Celtic	X	2 · Rangers
Betsafe	EV+ 20% 2.25	3.45	3.05
Betsson	EV+ 20% 2.25	3.45	3.05
Nordicbet	EV+ 20% 2.25	3.45	3.05
Pinnacle	EV+ 20% 2.25	3.65	3.14

Odds updated 20 Sept, 10:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Rangers win since 12 September — the odds have shortened from 3.49 to 3.14 (−10%).

1+10 %

50 %40 %

2.04 → 2.25

X+2 %

31 %21 %

3.58 → 3.65

2-10 %

34 %24 %

3.49 → 3.14

Pinnacle · 19 recorded price levels · 12/09/2026 → 20/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

8 matches

Celtic 2Draw 3Rangers 3

Goals: 12–13 (⌀ 3,1)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

Key facts

A high-scoring fixture: 3.1 goals per meeting on average.
Celtic FC come into this round on 13 straight wins.
Celtic FC have scored in 13 consecutive league matches.
Rangers come into this round on 4 straight wins.
Rangers have scored in 20 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Celtic

Rangers

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Celtic (14–3)

Rangers (7–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Celtic

Rangers

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Celtic

Rangers

The teams in numbers

Performance	Celtic	Rangers
Points	18	13
xPoints	12.1	10.8
xG per match	2.9	2.3
xGA per match	0.9	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.74	0.37
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.09	0.27

Playing style	Celtic	Rangers
Build-up efficiency	0.37	0.34
Field tilt	0.72	0.64
xT per match	1.7	1.4
xTA per match	0.49	0.62
Won balls, offensive half	30	29
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.28
Entries into the box per match	20	19
Entries into the box against	10	8
Pass completion %	0.84	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.8	0.69
Passes per match	568	382
Passes against per match	311	291
Switches of play per match	37.1	31.2
Long balls per match	30	38

Set pieces	Celtic	Rangers
xG from free kicks	0	0.03
Corners per match	9.7	8
Corners against per match	4.2	4
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.56	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.52	0.54

Other	Celtic	Rangers
Throw-in control	0.82	0.71

The goalkeepers	Viljami Sinisalo (Celtic)	Ivor Pandur (Rangers)
Saves	16	14
Save %	89%	82%
xG prevented	52%	52%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Celtic

Fixtures, form & tips

Rangers

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Celtic vs Rangers according to our model?

The model gives Celtic a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Celtic 53%, draw 24%, Rangers 23%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.