Mačva Šabac vs Mladost Lučani: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Serbian Super League20 September 2026 17:00 CEST23°6 km/h

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Mačva ŠabacLow block & direct

1–2

Mladost LučaniLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Mladost Lučani (39%)

1 · Mačva Šabac 33%X 28%39% Mladost Lučani · 2

33%

28%

39%

Analysis: Mačva Šabac – Mladost Lučani

Erik Lindberg · 18 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Mladost Lučani's superior xG metrics and their modest edge in both points and expected points suggest a tilt toward the visitors in this matchup against Mačva Šabac. Despite both teams adhering to a low-defence, direct playing style, Lučani's ability to create marginally more chances and defend with slightly more cohesion distinguishes them in an otherwise tight contest.

The most likely scorelines, modelled at 1-1 and 0-1, reflect a contest where neither side is expected to dominate offensively. Lučani's xG per match of 0.89 narrowly surpasses the hosts' 0.64, while their defensive record of 1.5 xGA per match is significantly better than Mačva's concerning 2.3. This defensive frailty on the part of Mačva could prove pivotal, especially if the visitors nick an early goal and force the hosts to chase the game.

It's worth noting that the model gives Mladost Lučani a 39% chance of victory compared to Mačva's 33%, with the draw at 28%. This suggests a cautious approach from the visitors might still yield a favourable result. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at a modest 43%, and with both teams to score pegged just below a coin flip at 49%, this match appears unlikely to open up drastically.

Given the data, a 0-1 scoreline seems plausible, playing into Lučani's stronger defensive setup. From a betting perspective, the edge in both points and expected metrics for Lučani offers a lean toward the visitors securing a positive result, favouring the solid over the speculative.

Mačva Šabac

Form LWDDL

League ranking xG #14xGA #14xT #15xP/match #13Points #12

Key players

Bosko VrastanovicFxG 0.01 · xT 0.08
Luka PejovicLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.18
Milan VidakovFxG 0.34 · xT 0.05

Mladost Lučani

Form WWLWL

League ranking xG #13xGA #12xT #14xP/match #11Points #6

Key players

Mihailo TodosijevićFxG 0.23 · xT 0.02
Vasil TašovskiRWxG 0.29 · xT -0.01
Aleksandar VarjačićRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.19

Final score

1 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Mačva Šabac 33% · Draw 28% · Mladost Lučani 39%

Match prediction: Mačva Šabac – Mladost Lučani

Predicted score matrix

Mladost Lučani →

Mačva Šabac →

0–09.5%

0–111.6%

0–27.8%

0–33.4%

0–4+1.5%

1–09.5%

1–113.3%

1–28.5%

1–33.7%

1–4+1.6%

2–05.4%

2–17.0%

2–24.6%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.9%

3–01.9%

3–12.5%

3–21.7%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.7%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-112%
3.0-010%
4.1-010%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,08–1,31

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,557%

@1.61

Over 2,543%

@2.25

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Mladost Lučani or draw (X2)70%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Mladost Lučani or draw (X2)70%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Veljko Kijevčanin to score15%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Milan Vidakov to score23%
Nikola Ćirković to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Mladost Lučani39% probability@3.10Bet365EV+20%reference odds
2 · Mladost Lučani39% probability@3.00Paddy PowerEV+16%reference odds
2 · Mladost Lučani39% probability@2.68PinnacleEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Mačva Šabac	X	2 · Mladost Lučani
Bet365	2.30	3.20	EV+ 20% 3.10
Paddy Power	2.20	3.10	EV+ 16% 3.00
Pinnacle	2.58	2.99	EV+ 4% 2.68

Odds updated 20 Sept, 08:25

Odds movement

1+4 %

38 %33 %

2.49 → 2.58

X0 %

33 %28 %

2.99 → 2.99

2-2 %

36 %31 %

2.73 → 2.68

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 17/09/2026 → 20/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Mačva Šabac

Mladost Lučani

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Mačva Šabac (5–15)

Mladost Lučani (8–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Mačva Šabac

Mladost Lučani

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Mačva Šabac

Mladost Lučani

The teams in numbers

Performance	Mačva Šabac	Mladost Lučani
Points	8	13
xPoints	8.9	11.8
xG per match	0.64	0.89
xGA per match	2.3	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.07
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.3	0.2

Playing style	Mačva Šabac	Mladost Lučani
Build-up efficiency	0.21	0.28
Field tilt	0.21	0.25
xT per match	0.63	0.68
xTA per match	1.7	1.6
Won balls, offensive half	15	19
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.17	0.18
Entries into the box per match	7	9
Entries into the box against	17	17
Pass completion %	0.65	0.68
Pass completion % under pressure	0.62	0.63
Passes per match	204	247
Passes against per match	380	427
Switches of play per match	15.1	10.9
Long balls per match	21	24

Set pieces	Mačva Šabac	Mladost Lučani
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.05
Corners per match	2.2	3.4
Corners against per match	6.1	5.9
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.51	0.6

Other	Mačva Šabac	Mladost Lučani
Throw-in control	0.62	0.64

The goalkeepers	Vukašin Jovanović (Mačva Šabac)	Saša Stamenković (Mladost Lučani)
Saves	21	46
Save %	88%	81%
xG prevented	82%	73%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Mačva Šabac

Fixtures, form & tips

Mladost Lučani

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Mačva Šabac vs Mladost Lučani according to our model?

The model gives Mladost Lučani a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mačva Šabac 33%, draw 28%, Mladost Lučani 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.