Red Star Belgrade vs Radnički Niš: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Serbian Super League20 September 2026Rajko Mitić-stadion, Belgrad24°8 km/h

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Red Star BelgradePossession & high press

3–0

Radnički NišPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Red Star Belgrade (76%)

1 · Red Star Belgrade 76%X 15%9% Radnički Niš · 2

76%

15%

Analysis: Red Star Belgrade – Radnički Niš

Marcus Johansson · 18 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The odds-on Red Star to win at Bet365 offer limited value given the overwhelming favoritism, but a specific interest lies in the 2-0 correct score at 12%, which might present a sharper angle for punters seeking to capitalize on the match dynamics.

Corrected text:

Red Star Belgrade's fortress-like home record looms large as they prepare to host Radnički Niš. With a formidable 84% win rate at home across 43 matches and current form boasting an eight-match unbeaten streak in the league, the hosts are clear favorites. The visitors, Radnički Niš, face a daunting task, having managed only a solitary point from their four head-to-heads since 2023. Given these trends, the model heavily favors a Red Star victory, with a notable lean towards a 2-0 or 3-0 result.

Both teams employ a possession-based and high-pressing approach, likely leading to a tactical battle where Red Star's superior quality should prevail. The expected goals (xG) tally presents a stark contrast: Red Star average 2.53 xG per match compared to Niš's 0.73. This suggests the home side will not only dominate possession but also generate significantly more scoring opportunities. Meanwhile, the visitors' defensive vulnerabilities are highlighted by their higher expected goals against (xGA) at 1.1 versus Red Star's 0.6, further tipping the scales in favor of the hosts.

While Radnički Niš are unlikely to pose a serious threat in Belgrade, their capacity to surprise with a goal shouldn't be entirely dismissed, as both teams to score is assessed at 48%. Nonetheless, the probability of over 2.5 goals hitting 63% aligns well with the expected scorelines, suggesting a fairly open game but one predominantly controlled by the hosts.

Despite the small head-to-head sample size, form and xG metrics reinforce Red Star's dominance. Red Star are heavily favored to win given the overwhelming statistical edge, but a specific interest lies in the 2-0 correct score at 12%, which might present a sharper angle for punters seeking to capitalize on the match dynamics.

Red Star Belgrade

Form WWWDW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Aleksandar KataiFxG 0.80 · xT 0.18
Nayair TiknizyanLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.33
Young-Woo SeolRBxG 0.04 · xT 0.46

Radnički Niš

Form DLDLW

League ranking xG #8xGA #6xT #6xP/match #10Points #11

Key players

Dušan JovanovićFxG 0.29 · xT 0.14
Miloš SpasićFxG 0.13 · xT 0.04
Issah AbassLWxG 0.33 · xT 0.24

Final score

3 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Red Star Belgrade 76% · Draw 15% · Radnički Niš 9%

Match prediction: Red Star Belgrade – Radnički Niš

Predicted score matrix

Radnički Niš →

Red Star Belgrade →

0–04.1%

0–12.6%

0–21.0%

0–30.3%

0–4+0.1%

1–09.5%

1–17.3%

1–22.6%

1–30.6%

1–4+0.1%

2–012.3%

2–19.0%

2–23.3%

2–30.8%

2–4+0.2%

3–010.4%

3–17.6%

3–22.8%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.1%

4+–012.0%

4+–18.7%

4+–23.2%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-012%
2.3-010%
3.1-010%
4.2-19%
5.3-18%

Expected goals

2,53–0,73

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,537%

–

Over 2,563%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Red Star Belgrade to win76%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Red Star Belgrade to win76%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Vasilije Kostov to score43%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Vasilije Kostov to score43%
Radomir Milosavljević to be booked24%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Red Star Belgrade 3Draw 1Radnički Niš 0

Goals: 10–1 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

Red Star Belgrade are unbeaten in their last 8 league matches.
Red Star Belgrade win 84% of their home matches all-time (43 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Red Star Belgrade

Radnički Niš

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Red Star Belgrade (19–2)

Radnički Niš (6–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Red Star Belgrade

Radnički Niš

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Red Star Belgrade

Radnički Niš

The teams in numbers

Performance	Red Star Belgrade	Radnički Niš
Points	22	8
xPoints	16.8	11
xG per match	2.5	1.4
xGA per match	0.6	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.33	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.07	0.15

Playing style	Red Star Belgrade	Radnički Niš
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.31
Field tilt	0.75	0.66
xT per match	2	1.3
xTA per match	0.74	0.69
Won balls, offensive half	24	31
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.29
Entries into the box per match	19	15
Entries into the box against	8	9
Pass completion %	0.84	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.71
Passes per match	501	309
Passes against per match	261	274
Switches of play per match	45.8	22.7
Long balls per match	48	36

Set pieces	Red Star Belgrade	Radnički Niš
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.04
Corners per match	4.5	4.7
Corners against per match	2.9	3.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.67	0.49
First touch, defensive corners %	0.7	0.5

Other	Red Star Belgrade	Radnički Niš
Throw-in control	0.88	0.7

The goalkeepers	Matheus Lima Magalhães (Red Star Belgrade)	Ivan Kostić (Radnički Niš)
Saves	21	21
Save %	91%	84%
xG prevented	67%	64%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Red Star Belgrade

Fixtures, form & tips

Radnički Niš

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Red Star Belgrade vs Radnički Niš according to our model?

The model gives Red Star Belgrade a 76% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Red Star Belgrade 76%, draw 15%, Radnički Niš 9%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.