01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Vojvodina or draw (X2)65%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Serbian Super League25°0,1 mm11 km/h
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Novi PazarPossession control2–0
VojvodinaPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Vojvodina (36%)Best value by the model: 1 · Novi Pazar @ 3.50 (+23 %)
Novi Pazar – Vojvodina · Serbian Super League
1 · Novi Pazar 35%X 29%36% Vojvodina · 2
35%
29%
36%
Analysis: Novi Pazar – Vojvodina
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Eight matches, four wins each; that's the head-to-head deadlock between FK Novi Pazar and FK Vojvodina Novi Sad since 2023. But small samples rarely tell the whole story, especially when the season form paints a different picture. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad is riding high with 9 points, compared to FK Novi Pazar's meagre 4. Yet, dig into the xPoints, and it's FK Novi Pazar with a slight edge at 5.6 over FK Vojvodina Novi Sad's 5.3. It's a curious clash of stats, where possession control meets possession control, and the balance teeters ever so slightly.
FK Vojvodina Novi Sad comes into this fixture in scoring form, having found the back of the net in 8 consecutive league matches. While their xG per match stands at 1.5, FK Novi Pazar isn’t far behind at 1.2, suggesting a contest that could easily see goals. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at a tempting 53%, hinting that this might not be a day for the defensive purists, even if both teams like to control the ball.
35% versus 36%; the model almost splits hairs on the winner, slightly leaning towards FK Vojvodina Novi Sad. Yet, there's a sharp angle in the betting market: value lies with FK Novi Pazar at odds of 3.5 with Bet365, offering a 23% edge based on the model's probability. That's a juicy proposition for those who dare to go against the grain and back the underdog at home, especially given the draw probability of 29% which underscores the openness of this fixture.
Expect a tight contest, with the most likely scorelines being a 1-1 draw or a narrow win for the visitors, either 1-2 or 0-1. However, the weather could play its part; if rain and strong wind show up, they might suppress goals, though the model's numbers already account for that. With these elements baked in, FK Novi Pazar's home odds present a tantalizing bet, but the over 2.5 goals market at odds of 2.0 with Bet365 also offers a slight edge. The allure of goals should not be overlooked in this finely poised matchup.
Novi PazarForm LWDLL
League ranking xG #9xGA #11xT #13xP/match #6Points #9
Key players
- Dominic Wadi SadiCAMxG 0.38 · xT 0.02
- Vieiri KotzebueFxG 0.32 · xT 0.08
- Kaheim Anthony DixonLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
VojvodinaForm WWLWW
League ranking xG #6xGA #12xT #5xP/match #10Points #2
Key players
- Nardin MulahusejnovicFxG 0.73 · xT 0.05
- Lazar RanđelovićRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.33
- Njegoš PetrovićCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
Final score
2 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Novi Pazar 35% · Draw 29% · Vojvodina 36%
Match prediction: Novi Pazar – Vojvodina
Predicted score matrix
Vojvodina →
Novi Pazar →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.5%
0–18.6%
0–26.4%
0–33.0%
0–4+1.5%
1
1–08.0%
1–112.3%
1–28.6%
1–34.1%
1–4+2.0%
2
2–05.6%
2–18.1%
2–25.8%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.4%
3
3–02.5%
3–13.6%
3–22.6%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–11.6%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.2-18%
- 5.1-08%
Expected goals
1,35–1,43
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
@2.01
Over 2,553%
@2.00EV+5%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Vojvodina or draw (X2)65%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Petar Sukacev to score15%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Vieiri Kotzebue to score21%
- Njegoš Petrović to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Novi Pazar35% probability@3.50Bet365EV+23%reference odds
- 1 · Novi Pazar35% probability@3.28PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
- Over 2.553% probability@2.00Bet365EV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Novi Pazar | X | 2 · Vojvodina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | EV+ 23% 3.50 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 15% 3.28 | EV+ 2% 3.52 | 1.87 |
Odds updated 15 Aug, 05:00
Odds movement
1-4 %
34 %24 %
3.42 → 3.28
X+6 %
31 %21 %
3.33 → 3.52
2-6 %
50 %40 %
1.99 → 1.87
Over 2,5-7 %
58 %48 %
1.82 → 1.70
Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 13/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesNovi Pazar 4Draw 0Vojvodina 4
Goals: 8–10 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- FK Vojvodina Novi Sad have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Novi Pazar
Vojvodina
Novi Pazar (2–6)
Vojvodina (9–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Novi Pazar
Vojvodina
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Novi Pazar
Vojvodina
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Novi Pazar | Vojvodina |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 9 |
| xPoints | 5.6 | 5.3 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.23 | 0.48 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| Playing style | Novi Pazar | Vojvodina |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.48 | 0.58 |
| xT per match | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.93 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 32 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.2 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 292 | 300 |
| Passes against per match | 301 | 292 |
| Switches of play per match | 30 | 19.7 |
| Long balls per match | 43 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Novi Pazar | Vojvodina |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 4.8 | 5 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 3.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.37 | 0.2 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.5 |
| Other | Novi Pazar | Vojvodina |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| The goalkeepers | Miloje Preković (Novi Pazar) | Dragan Rosić (Vojvodina) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 12 | 19 |
| Save % | 75% | 83% |
| xG prevented | 64% | 59% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Novi Pazar vs Vojvodina according to our model?
The model gives Vojvodina a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Novi Pazar 35%, draw 29%, Vojvodina 36%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.