Serbian Super League27°16 km/h

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    ZemunZemunLow block & direct
    0–1
    Mladost LučaniMladost LučaniLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 2 · Mladost Lučani (45%)Best value by the model: 1 · Zemun @ 3.74 (+19 %)

    Zemun – Mladost Lučani · Serbian Super League

    1 · Zemun 32%X 23%45% Mladost Lučani · 2

    Analysis: Zemun – Mladost Lučani

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Three losses on the spin for FK Zemun paints a vivid picture of a team grappling with form. In stark contrast, FK Mladost Lucani arrive with an unbeaten streak of six league matches, suggesting their resilience and recent upward momentum. As both teams adopt a low defence and direct playing style, the likelihood of an open-ended game might seem unlikely, yet the numbers hint at a more nuanced narrative.

    Expected goals (xG) tilt the scale in FK Mladost Lucani's favour, 1.42 to 1.13, further underscoring their attacking edge. FK Zemun's xGA of 2.7 per match is a glaring vulnerability, particularly against a Lucani side that’s showing a robust 0.89 xG per match. With just a solitary point to their name, Zemun's defensive frailties are a glaring concern.

    FK Mladost Lucani lead the head-to-head points and xPoints, demonstrating superior form and performance metrics. Although the sample size of recent encounters between these clubs is small, the broad strokes of this matchup are coloured by current form rather than history. Zemun's poor defence meets a side that knows how to convert chances, and with weather not a factor, goals may still find the net despite a typically defensive style.

    FK Mladost Lucani's 45% win probability, coupled with attractive odds of 2.625 at Bet365, presents a rather sharp betting angle. Meanwhile, the 11% likelihood of a 0-1 scoreline aligns with a victory on the road, reinforcing confidence in Lucani’s edge. The over 2.5 goals market, with value odds of 2.25 at Bet365, beckons too, but with a lower conviction given the conservative expected goals projection.

    Expect FK Mladost Lucani to edge this contest, with a 0-1 or 1-2 scoreline emerging as the most plausible outcomes. The betting value is clear: riding the unbeaten momentum of Mladost Lucani at those advantageous odds seems the astute move.

    ZemunZemun
    Form DLLL
    League ranking xG #14xGA #14xT #12xP/match #14Points #14
    Key players
    • Đorđe PetrovićCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.08
    • Nemanja BelakovićRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.14
    • Ognjen IlicFxG 0.04 · xT 0.06
    Mladost LučaniMladost Lučani
    Form DDDDD
    League ranking xG #12xGA #9xT #10xP/match #7Points #8
    Key players
    • Vasil TašovskiRWxG 0.49 · xT -0.08
    • Aleksandar VarjačićRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.14
    • Mihailo TodosijevićCMxG 0.23 · xT 0.06
    Final score
    0 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Zemun 32% · Draw 23% · Mladost Lučani 45%

    Match prediction: Zemun – Mladost Lučani

    Predicted score matrix

    Mladost Lučani →
    Zemun →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.1%
    0–110.7%
    0–27.8%
    0–33.7%
    0–4+1.8%
    1
    1–08.5%
    1–112.9%
    1–28.9%
    1–34.2%
    1–4+2.1%
    2
    2–05.0%
    2–17.1%
    2–25.0%
    2–32.4%
    2–4+1.2%
    3
    3–01.9%
    3–12.7%
    3–21.9%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–00.7%
    4+–11.0%
    4+–20.7%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-111%
    3. 3.1-29%
    4. 4.1-08%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,13–1,42
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,553%
    @1.65
    Over 2,547%
    @2.25EV+6%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Mladost Lučani to win45%
    • Under 3.5 goals75%

    Combined probability

    31%

    Fair odds

    3.21

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Mladost Lučani to win45%
    • Under 2.5 goals53%
    • John Mary Honi Uzuegbunam to score23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score52%
    • Over 2.5 goals47%
    • John Mary Honi Uzuegbunam to score23%
    • Nikola Andrić to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Zemun32% probability@3.74PinnacleEV+19%reference odds
    • 2 · Mladost Lučani45% probability@2.63Bet365EV+18%reference odds
    • 2 · Mladost Lučani45% probability@2.50Paddy PowerEV+13%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · ZemunX2 · Mladost Lučani
    Bet3652.633.10
    EV+ 18%
    2.63
    Paddy Power2.603.30
    EV+ 13%
    2.50
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 19%
    3.74    		3.521.81

    Odds updated 15 Aug, 15:56

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Mladost Lučani win since 13 August — the odds have shortened from 2.28 to 1.81 (−20%).

    1+33 %
    38 %18 %

    2.81 → 3.74

    X+15 %
    37 %17 %

    3.06 → 3.52

    2-20 %
    55 %35 %

    2.28 → 1.81

    Over 2,5-3 %
    52 %32 %

    2.23 → 2.16

    Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 13/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • FK Zemun have lost 3 in a row.
    • FK Mladost Lucani are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Zemun
    Mladost Lučani
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Zemun (2–10)
    Mladost Lučani (3–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Zemun
    Ivan Ostojić: 98 passningar, xT 0.42OstojićOgnjen Ilic: 90 passningar, xT 0.24IlicAleksandar Kadijević: 87 passningar, xT 0.03KadijevićMladen Živković: 79 passningar, xT 0.05ŽivkovićVasilije Bakić: 66 passningar, xT 0.11BakićDejan Parađina: 62 passningar, xT 0.6ParađinaĐorđe Jovanović: 59 passningar, xT 0.02JovanovićNemanja Belaković: 58 passningar, xT 0.45BelakovićNemanja Kalat: 38 passningar, xT 0.13KalatUroš Ljubomirac: 38 passningar, xT -0.02LjubomiracĐorđe Petrović: 30 passningar, xT 0.01Petrović
    Mladost Lučani
    Milan Joksimović: 137 passningar, xT 0.55JoksimovićNikola Ćirković: 105 passningar, xT 0.13ĆirkovićŽarko Udovičić: 103 passningar, xT 0.76UdovičićNikola Andrić: 100 passningar, xT 0.23AndrićDušan Jovančić: 96 passningar, xT 0.17JovančićAleksandar Varjačić: 71 passningar, xT 0.56VarjačićVeljko Kijevčanin: 66 passningar, xT 0.43KijevčaninSaša Stamenković: 56 passningar, xT 0.05StamenkovićJohn Mary Honi Uzuegbunam: 36 passningar, xT -0.08UzuegbunamJovan Ćirić: 35 passningar, xT 0.14ĆirićVasil Tašovski: 27 passningar, xT -0.21Tašovski
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Zemun
    Ivan Ostojić: 98 passningar, xT 0.42OstojićOgnjen Ilic: 90 passningar, xT 0.24IlicAleksandar Kadijević: 87 passningar, xT 0.03KadijevićMladen Živković: 79 passningar, xT 0.05ŽivkovićVasilije Bakić: 66 passningar, xT 0.11BakićDejan Parađina: 62 passningar, xT 0.6ParađinaĐorđe Jovanović: 59 passningar, xT 0.02JovanovićNemanja Belaković: 58 passningar, xT 0.45BelakovićNemanja Kalat: 38 passningar, xT 0.13KalatUroš Ljubomirac: 38 passningar, xT -0.02LjubomiracĐorđe Petrović: 30 passningar, xT 0.01Petrović
    Mladost Lučani
    Milan Joksimović: 137 passningar, xT 0.55JoksimovićNikola Ćirković: 105 passningar, xT 0.13ĆirkovićŽarko Udovičić: 103 passningar, xT 0.76UdovičićNikola Andrić: 100 passningar, xT 0.23AndrićDušan Jovančić: 96 passningar, xT 0.17JovančićAleksandar Varjačić: 71 passningar, xT 0.56VarjačićVeljko Kijevčanin: 66 passningar, xT 0.43KijevčaninSaša Stamenković: 56 passningar, xT 0.05StamenkovićJohn Mary Honi Uzuegbunam: 36 passningar, xT -0.08UzuegbunamJovan Ćirić: 35 passningar, xT 0.14ĆirićVasil Tašovski: 27 passningar, xT -0.21Tašovski

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceZemunMladost Lučani
    Points14
    xPoints2.25.5
    xG per match0.60.89
    xGA per match2.71.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.150.11
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.20.18
    Playing styleZemunMladost Lučani
    Build-up efficiency0.270.28
    Field tilt0.250.3
    xT per match0.740.82
    xTA per match1.81.3
    Won balls, offensive half2221
    Pressing intensity0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency0.220.21
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.150.19
    Entries into the box per match812
    Entries into the box against2014
    Pass completion %0.670.66
    Pass completion % under pressure0.650.6
    Passes per match211229
    Passes against per match475441
    Switches of play per match13.211.9
    Long balls per match2621
    Set piecesZemunMladost Lučani
    xG from free kicks0.010.07
    Corners per match24.1
    Corners against per match75.8
    xG per corner00.05
    xGA per corner against0.050.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.250.56
    First touch, defensive corners %0.610.7
    OtherZemunMladost Lučani
    Throw-in control0.570.68
    The goalkeepersMladen Živković (Zemun)Saša Stamenković (Mladost Lučani)
    Saves2419
    Save %71%86%
    xG prevented55%90%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Zemun
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Mladost Lučani
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Zemun vs Mladost Lučani according to our model?

    The model gives Mladost Lučani a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Zemun 32%, draw 23%, Mladost Lučani 45%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.