01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Košice to win61%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
Slovak Super LeagueKošická futbalová aréna, Košice9°20 km/h
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KošicePossession & high pressvs
KomárnoCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Košice (61%)
Košice vs Komárno · Slovak Super League
1 · Košice 61%X 20%19% Komárno · 2
61%
20%
19%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Košice – Komárno
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT: Košice holds a 61% win probability against Komárno, a gap that reflects their superior form and attacking prowess. The hosts are riding a streak of scoring in eight consecutive league matches, promising a consistent threat against a Komárno side that remains vulnerable on the defensive end. Despite a narrow edge in expected goals against (xGA), Komárno's overall performance metrics fail to match Košice's attacking depth, which is underscored by the home side's higher xG per match at 1.9.
The head-to-head record, at 3-1-2 in favor of Košice, offers a limited sample size and less weight than current form and expected goals. Komárno's counter-attacking strategy and reliance on crosses will need to be exceptionally sharp to counter Košice's high press and possession-based approach. With the most probable scorelines favoring a Košice victory, particularly 2-1 and 2-0, the betting market’s lean towards the hosts aligns with the statistical model.
Punters should note a potential value play with the over 2.5 goals market, which is priced at 64%. Given both teams’ scoring profiles and Košice's attacking consistency, this angle appears promising, especially if offered at favorable odds from a bookmaker like Bet365 or similar.
KošiceForm LDWLW
League ranking xG #3xGA #6xT #4xP/match #3Points #7
Key players
- Aleksa MarasFxG 0.68 · xT 0.02
- Miroslav SovicFxG 0.12 · xT 0.26
- Matej MadlenakLWBxG 0.12 · xT 0.17
KomárnoForm LDDDL
League ranking xG #9xGA #4xT #6xP/match #9Points #10
Key players
- Ján BernátLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.13
- Dominik ZakCDMxG 0.23 · xT 0.20
- Jakub SylvestrFxG 0.33 · xT 0.11
Match prediction: Košice – Komárno
Predicted score matrix
Komárno →
Košice →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.0%
0–13.9%
0–22.2%
0–30.8%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–08.0%
1–19.3%
1–24.9%
1–31.8%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.0%
2–19.8%
2–25.4%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–06.6%
3–17.2%
3–23.9%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–06.0%
4+–16.5%
4+–23.6%
4+–31.3%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-110%
- 2.1-19%
- 3.2-09%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,19–1,09
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+23%
Under 2,536%
@2.50
Over 2,564%
@1.50
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Košice to win61%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Aleksa Maras to score31%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Aleksa Maras to score31%
- Dominik Žák to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Košice61% probability@1.66PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
- 1 · Košice61% probability@1.65BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
- 1 · Košice61% probability@1.65NordicbetEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Košice | X | 2 · Komárno |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.61 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Betsafe | EV+ 1% 1.65 | 3.85 | 4.10 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 1% 1.65 | 3.85 | 4.10 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 2% 1.66 | 4.15 | 4.28 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 06:59
Odds movement
1-4 %
57 %52 %
1.74 → 1.66
X+2 %
25 %20 %
4.05 → 4.15
2+8 %
25 %20 %
3.97 → 4.28
Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesKošice 3Draw 1Komárno 2
Goals: 9–8 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Slovak Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- FC Kosice have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Košice
Komárno
Košice (21–18)
Komárno (8–14)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Košice
Komárno
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Košice
Komárno
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Košice | Komárno |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12 | 5 |
| xPoints | 13 | 11.3 |
| xG per match | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.3 | 0.25 |
| Playing style | Košice | Komárno |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.96 | 0.97 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 32 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 325 | 353 |
| Passes against per match | 367 | 321 |
| Switches of play per match | 13.2 | 23 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 37 |
| Set pieces | Košice | Komárno |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 5.3 | 5.7 |
| Corners against per match | 5.6 | 6.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.55 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.6 |
| Other | Košice | Komárno |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Matus Kira (Košice) | Branislav Pindroch (Komárno) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 20 | 25 |
| Save % | 67% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 53% | 61% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Slovan Bratislava – Skalica10 October 2026
- DAC – Zemplín Michalovce10 October 2026
- Trenčín – Dukla Banska Bystrica10 October 2026 15:30 CEST
- Skalica – Slovan Bratislava10 October 2026 15:30 CEST
- Zemplín Michalovce – DAC10 October 2026 18:00 CEST
- Ružomberok – Žilina11 October 2026 15:30 CEST
- Podbrezová – Spartak Trnava11 October 2026 18:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Košice vs Komárno according to our model?
The model gives Košice a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Košice 61%, draw 20%, Komárno 19%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.