Podbrezová vs Spartak Trnava Prediction: Away win 43% (11 Oct 2026)

Slovak Super League11 October 2026 18:00 CEST9°2,1 mm15 km/h

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PodbrezováCounter-attacks & crosses

Spartak TrnavaPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Spartak Trnava (43%)

1 · Podbrezová 32%X 25%43% Spartak Trnava · 2

32%

25%

43%

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Analysis: Podbrezová – Spartak Trnava

Sofia Andersson · 2 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Spartak Trnava's consistent offensive output, with goals scored in 9 consecutive league matches, is a key element shaping the upcoming clash against Podbrezová. This attacking momentum aligns with their 43% likelihood of victory according to the model, which clearly leans towards the visitors. The historical context adds weight to this prediction, as Trnava has dominated this fixture with 6 wins out of the last 8 encounters. This record matches the head-to-head since 2023, so it reflects the full sample of meetings rather than a smaller subset.

Podbrezová, though trailing slightly in both points (14 to 18) and expected points (14.0 to 15.3), boasts a superior xG per match at 2.0 compared to Trnava's 1.8. This suggests that while Trnava has been more effective on the scoreboard, the hosts have the capacity to generate high-quality chances when they do break forward, particularly via counterattacks and crosses.

The encounter is also anticipated to be high-scoring, with a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% likelihood of both teams finding the net. This aligns with the 3.6 goals per meeting average historically in this matchup. Both sides have vulnerabilities at the back; Podbrezová's xGA of 1.6 per match presents an area Spartak Trnava could exploit through their possession control style.

In terms of likely scorelines, the model identifies 1-1 as the most probable result (11%), followed closely by a 1-2 away victory (9%). While a home win isn't off the cards, the 2-1 scoreline carries only an 8% probability.

Given the evidence and historical context, the strongest angle lies with Trnava's ability to continue their scoring streak, aligning well with the data's story.

Podbrezová

Form LDLDW

League ranking xG #2xGA #8xT #2xP/match #4Points #5

Key players

Peter KováčikRWxG 0.45 · xT 0.26
Karlo MiljanicRWxG 0.35 · xT 0.11
Filip MielkeCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.10

Spartak Trnava

Form WLDWD

League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #7xP/match #2Points #3

Key players

Timotej KudlickaFxG 0.46 · xT -0.01
Dávid PolťákFxG 0.76 · xT -0.01
Marek UjlakyCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Podbrezová – Spartak Trnava

Predicted score matrix

Spartak Trnava →

Podbrezová →

0–04.8%

0–17.3%

0–26.5%

0–33.6%

0–4+2.3%

1–06.0%

1–111.0%

1–29.1%

1–35.1%

1–4+3.2%

2–04.5%

2–17.6%

2–26.4%

2–33.6%

2–4+2.2%

3–02.1%

3–13.5%

3–23.0%

3–31.7%

3–4+1.0%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.0-17%
5.0-26%

Expected goals

1,41–1,69

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,540%

@2.25

Over 2,560%

@1.65

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Spartak Trnava or draw (X2)68%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Spartak Trnava or draw (X2)68%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Hillary Chukwah Gong to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Hillary Chukwah Gong to score23%
Rene Rantusa Lampreht to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Spartak Trnava43% probability@2.52BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
2 · Spartak Trnava43% probability@2.52NordicbetEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Podbrezová	X	2 · Spartak Trnava
Bet365	2.70	3.60	2.30
Betsafe	2.45	3.35	EV+ 8% 2.52
Nordicbet	2.45	3.35	EV+ 8% 2.52

Odds updated 4 Oct, 18:36

Odds movement

1-8 %

38 %33 %

2.65 → 2.45

X-3 %

29 %24 %

3.45 → 3.35

2+11 %

40 %35 %

2.28 → 2.52

Over 2,5+3 %

60 %55 %

1.60 → 1.65

Nordicbet · 2 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

8 matches

Podbrezová 1Draw 1Spartak Trnava 6

Goals: 10–19 (⌀ 3,6)

Head-to-head based on Slovak Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

Spartak Trnava dominate this fixture historically: 6 wins to 1 in 8 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.6 goals per meeting on average.
Spartak Trnava have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Podbrezová

Spartak Trnava

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Podbrezová (13–16)

Spartak Trnava (21–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Podbrezová

Spartak Trnava

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Podbrezová

Spartak Trnava

The teams in numbers

Performance	Podbrezová	Spartak Trnava
Points	14	18
xPoints	14	15.3
xG per match	2	1.8
xGA per match	1.6	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.31	0.3
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.44	0.26

Playing style	Podbrezová	Spartak Trnava
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.32
Field tilt	0.55	0.56
xT per match	1.4	1
xTA per match	1.3	0.89
Won balls, offensive half	24	23
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.28
Entries into the box per match	17	16
Entries into the box against	14	12
Pass completion %	0.73	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.71
Passes per match	316	359
Passes against per match	343	294
Switches of play per match	20.8	22.5
Long balls per match	30	34

Set pieces	Podbrezová	Spartak Trnava
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.02
Corners per match	6.3	5.6
Corners against per match	4.9	3.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.59	0.47
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.59

Other	Podbrezová	Spartak Trnava
Throw-in control	0.73	0.72

The goalkeepers	Lukáš Domaniský (Podbrezová)	Martin Vantruba (Spartak Trnava)
Saves	16	33
Save %	67%	77%
xG prevented	34%	63%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Podbrezová

Fixtures, form & tips

Spartak Trnava

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Podbrezová vs Spartak Trnava according to our model?

The model gives Spartak Trnava a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Podbrezová 32%, draw 25%, Spartak Trnava 43%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.