Ružomberok vs Žilina Prediction: Away win 47% (11 Oct 2026)

Slovak Super League11 October 2026 15:30 CESTŠtadión pod Čebraťom, Ružomberok9°2,1 mm13 km/h

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RužomberokLow block & direct

ŽilinaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Žilina (47%)

1 · Ružomberok 25%X 29%47% Žilina · 2

25%

29%

47%

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Analysis: Ružomberok – Žilina

Erik Lindberg · 2 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Ružomberok holds a slight upper hand in recent head-to-head clashes with Žilina, claiming two wins and a draw, with one loss, in their last four encounters. However, the limited sample size tempers the weight of this statistic, especially considering their current form. Žilina arrives in robust shape, unbeaten in their last six league outings and consistently finding the net in nine consecutive matches. The visitors clearly carry momentum into this fixture.

When we look at the numbers, Žilina has a distinct edge in most departments. Despite Ružomberok's ability to overperform on expected points (12.8 compared to Žilina's 12.5), the visitors boast superior expected goals (1.7 per match) and a tighter defence, conceding just 1.5 xGA per game. The model underlines Žilina’s strength with a 47% win probability, compared to Ružomberok's 25%.

The expected goals figures suggest a lively encounter, aligning with the 64% probability of over 2.5 goals. Both teams are projected to score, but Žilina's attacking proficiency might just tip the scales. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 and 1-2, both at 10%, reflecting the potential for a closely contested match, with the overall model lean favouring Žilina.

The sharpest betting angle here lies with Žilina’s odds to win. With a 47% probability and their recent form, betting on Žilina at odds of 2.20 with bookmaker Unibet represents value. While this isn’t a guarantee, it is a calculated risk backed by current trends and data analysis, ideal for those of us who prioritize steady returns over chasing the long shots.

Ružomberok

Form LLDWL

League ranking xG #7xGA #10xT #12xP/match #6Points #12

Key players

Martin BačíkFxG 0.19 · xT 0.15
Samuel LavrincikFxG 0.08 · xT 0.13
Jan HladikFxG 0.22 · xT 0.06

Žilina

Form WWWDW

League ranking xG #6xGA #5xT #5xP/match #7Points #2

Key players

Michal FaskoFxG 0.31 · xT 0.12
Daniel Homet RuizFxG 0.64 · xT 0.02
Patrik IlkoFxG 0.24 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Ružomberok – Žilina

Predicted score matrix

Žilina →

Ružomberok →

0–03.9%

0–17.1%

0–27.6%

0–35.2%

0–4+4.3%

1–04.3%

1–19.7%

1–29.7%

1–36.6%

1–4+5.5%

2–02.9%

2–16.0%

2–26.1%

2–34.2%

2–4+3.5%

3–01.2%

3–12.5%

3–22.6%

3–31.8%

3–4+1.5%

4+–00.5%

4+–11.0%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-210%
3.0-28%
4.0-17%
5.1-37%

Expected goals

1,27–2,05

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,536%

@2.42

Over 2,564%

@1.57EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Žilina to win47%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Žilina to win47%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Michal Faško to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Michal Faško to score29%
Filip Souček to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Žilina47% probability@2.42PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
X · Draw29% probability@3.75Bet365EV+7%reference odds
X · Draw29% probability@3.60BetsafeEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Ružomberok	X	2 · Žilina
Bet365	3.50	EV+ 7% 3.75	1.90
Betsafe	3.00	EV+ 3% 3.60	2.02
Nordicbet	3.00	EV+ 3% 3.60	2.02
Pinnacle	2.70	3.38	EV+ 13% 2.42

Odds updated 4 Oct, 18:03

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Ružomberok 2Draw 1Žilina 1

Goals: 7–7 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Slovak Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

MSK Zilina are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
MSK Zilina have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Ružomberok

Žilina

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Ružomberok (8–18)

Žilina (23–17)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ružomberok

Žilina

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ružomberok

Žilina

The teams in numbers

Performance	Ružomberok	Žilina
Points	5	20
xPoints	12.8	12.5
xG per match	1.5	1.7
xGA per match	1.9	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.42	0.38
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.23

Playing style	Ružomberok	Žilina
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.31
Field tilt	0.37	0.53
xT per match	0.84	1.2
xTA per match	1.4	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	27	22
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.27
Entries into the box per match	12	14
Entries into the box against	17	12
Pass completion %	0.64	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.59	0.74
Passes per match	211	392
Passes against per match	381	306
Switches of play per match	17.4	20.5
Long balls per match	30	30

Set pieces	Ružomberok	Žilina
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.03
Corners per match	5.2	6
Corners against per match	4.2	5.3
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.32	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.47	0.65

Other	Ružomberok	Žilina
Throw-in control	0.75	0.75

The goalkeepers	Ivan Krajčírik (Ružomberok)	David Sipos (Žilina)
Saves	21	32
Save %	57%	71%
xG prevented	30%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Ružomberok

Fixtures, form & tips

Žilina

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ružomberok vs Žilina according to our model?

The model gives Žilina a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ružomberok 25%, draw 29%, Žilina 47%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.