Zemplín Michalovce vs DAC Prediction: Away win 59% (10 Oct 2026)

Slovak Super League10 October 2026 18:00 CEST10°16 km/h

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Zemplín MichalovcePossession control

DACPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · DAC (59%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.30 (+1 %)

1 · Zemplín Michalovce 19%X 22%59% DAC · 2

19%

22%

59%

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Analysis: Zemplín Michalovce – DAC

Anna Karlsson · 3 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT CONTAINS AN UNSUPPORTED CLAIM: the bookmaker odds ("2.10 from Bet365") are not present anywhere in the FACTS and must be removed.

Corrected text:

DAC's unbeaten streak of nine league matches sets the stage against Zemplín Michalovce, with the visitors also having scored in ten straight games. The hosts' task seems daunting as the model probabilities lean heavily towards DAC, giving them a 59% chance of victory. Michalovce's control-oriented style might struggle to contain DAC's firepower, reflected in the expected goals: DAC lead with 1.84 compared to Michalovce's 1.09.

The historical head-to-head favors DAC with 4 wins out of 7 meetings since 2023, but the sample size is small. DAC's edge is also evident in the xPoints and xG metrics, suggesting they've consistently performed better than Michalovce. Both teams' shared possession-control approach could neutralize each other, yet DAC's superior xG of 2.1 and xGA of 1.0 provide a structural advantage.

Betting value emerges in DAC's dominance, particularly with their recent form. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 11% probability suggests caution but supports a lean towards under 2.5 goals at 44%. However, the best value lies with DAC, driven by their consistent scoring and unbeaten momentum.

Zemplín Michalovce

Form WWWLW

League ranking xG #11xGA #7xT #9xP/match #8Points #6

Key players

Abdul ZubairuCDMxG 0.08 · xT 0.18
Ben CottrellCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.14
Elvis MashikeFxG 0.17 · xT 0.07

DAC

Form WWWWD

League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #3xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Ammar RamadanLWxG 0.35 · xT 0.41
Matej TrusaFxG 0.89 · xT 0.03
Giorgi GaguaLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.22

Match prediction: Zemplín Michalovce – DAC

Predicted score matrix

DAC →

Zemplín Michalovce →

0–05.7%

0–19.5%

0–29.0%

0–35.5%

0–4+3.8%

1–05.5%

1–111.0%

1–29.8%

1–36.0%

1–4+4.2%

2–03.2%

2–15.9%

2–25.4%

2–33.3%

2–4+2.3%

3–01.2%

3–12.1%

3–22.0%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.8%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.7%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-210%
3.0-19%
4.0-29%
5.1-36%

Expected goals

1,09–1,84

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

@2.30EV+1%

Over 2,556%

@1.55

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

DAC to win59%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

DAC to win59%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Matej Trusa to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Matej Trusa to score33%
Martin Bednár to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.544% probability@2.30BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
Under 2.544% probability@2.30NordicbetEV+1%reference odds
Under 3.566% probability@1.52BetsafeEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Zemplín Michalovce	X	2 · DAC
Betsafe	4.90	3.95	1.55
Nordicbet	4.90	3.95	1.55
Pinnacle	4.68	4.07	1.62

Odds updated 4 Oct, 18:03

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Zemplín Michalovce 2Draw 1DAC 4

Goals: 7–14 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Slovak Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

DAC dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 7 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
DAC are unbeaten in their last 9 league matches.
DAC have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Zemplín Michalovce

DAC

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Zemplín Michalovce (9–11)

DAC (25–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Zemplín Michalovce

DAC

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Zemplín Michalovce

DAC

The teams in numbers

Performance	Zemplín Michalovce	DAC
Points	13	20
xPoints	11.4	15.1
xG per match	1.1	2.1
xGA per match	1.5	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.49
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.3	0.13

Playing style	Zemplín Michalovce	DAC
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.46	0.51
xT per match	0.95	1.4
xTA per match	1.3	0.79
Won balls, offensive half	21	25
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.25
Entries into the box per match	11	14
Entries into the box against	17	13
Pass completion %	0.71	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.75
Passes per match	297	369
Passes against per match	332	295
Switches of play per match	12.4	39.3
Long balls per match	27	46

Set pieces	Zemplín Michalovce	DAC
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.02
Corners per match	3.9	4.6
Corners against per match	7.1	5.3
xG per corner	0.01	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.49	0.46
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.5

Other	Zemplín Michalovce	DAC
Throw-in control	0.69	0.74

The goalkeepers	Adam Jakubech (Zemplín Michalovce)	Leandro Filipe de Almeida Dornelles (DAC)
Saves	32	19
Save %	74%	79%
xG prevented	59%	48%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Zemplín Michalovce

Fixtures, form & tips

DAC

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Zemplín Michalovce vs DAC according to our model?

The model gives DAC a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Zemplín Michalovce 19%, draw 22%, DAC 59%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.