La LigaEl Sadar, Pamplona18°15 km/h

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    OsasunaOsasunaBalanced & physical
    vs
    Rayo VallecanoRayo VallecanoBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 1 · Osasuna (44%)Best value by the model: 2 · Rayo Vallecano @ 3.75 (+5 %)

    Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano · La Liga

    1 · Osasuna 44%X 28%28% Rayo Vallecano · 2

    Analysis: Osasuna – Rayo Vallecano

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    The tension in this matchup lies in Osasuna's defensive strength contrasting with Rayo Vallecano's knack for finding the net. With Vallecano having scored in 11 consecutive league matches, their offensive momentum is undeniable. However, Osasuna's impressive defensive numbers — conceding an expected 0.82 goals per match — suggest they have the resilience to withstand this pressure.

    Despite their scoring streak, Vallecano sits on just four points, trailing Osasuna's seven. The expected points further widen this gap, with Osasuna at 7.9 compared to Vallecano's 5.4. This disparity hints at the hosts being more efficient in converting their chances and keeping the opposition at bay.

    The head-to-head record since 2022, though slightly favoring Osasuna (4 wins to 3), is a small sample and offers limited predictive power. More telling is the expected goals data, which points to Osasuna generating more dangerous opportunities with an xG of 1.7 compared to Vallecano's 1.1. The model leans towards an Osasuna victory, pegging them at a 44% chance of claiming the win at home.

    As for the scoreline, the numbers suggest a tight affair. The most likely outcomes hover around low scores: 1-1 and 1-0. With an over 2.5 goals probability of only 44%, this clash leans towards a cagey encounter. While both teams are balanced and physical, Osasuna's slight edge in current form and xG metrics might just tilt the balance.

    The sharpest angle in this match is the potential value in backing Osasuna at home, with favorable odds of 2.3 offered by Bet365. While not a guarantee, the probabilities suggest it’s a bet worth considering.

    OsasunaOsasuna
    Form LDWWL
    League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #11xP/match #3Points #8
    Key players
    • Ante BudimirFxG 1.26 · xT 0.01
    • Raul GarciaFxG 0.22 · xT -0.05
    • Ruben GarciaRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.11
    Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
    Form WLDLW
    League ranking xG #13xGA #20xT #18xP/match #10Points #14
    Key players
    • Sergio CamelloFxG 0.49 · xT 0.06
    • Unai LopezCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
    • Oscar ValentinFxG 0.00 · xT 0.02

    Match prediction: Osasuna – Rayo Vallecano

    Predicted score matrix

    Rayo Vallecano →
    Osasuna →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.2%
    0–18.4%
    0–24.4%
    0–31.5%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–012.3%
    1–113.0%
    1–26.3%
    1–32.1%
    1–4+0.6%
    2
    2–09.0%
    2–19.0%
    2–24.5%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–04.3%
    3–14.3%
    3–22.1%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–02.1%
    4+–12.1%
    4+–21.0%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.0-09%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.2-19%
    Expected goals
    1,43–1,00
    Both teams to score
    48%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,4
    Under 2,556%
    @1.78EV+0%
    Over 2,544%
    @2.08

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Osasuna or draw (1X)74%
    • Under 3.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    57%

    Fair odds

    1.76

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Osasuna or draw (1X)74%
    • Under 2.5 goals56%
    • Ante Budimir to score31%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score48%
    • Over 2.5 goals44%
    • Ante Budimir to score31%
    • Nobel Mendy to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Rayo Vallecano28% probability@3.75Bet365EV+5%reference odds
    • 1 · Osasuna44% probability@2.28BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
    • Both teams to score: No52% probability@1.95Bet365EV+1%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · OsasunaX2 · Rayo Vallecano
    Bet3652.003.20
    EV+ 5%
    3.75
    Betsafe
    EV+ 1%
    2.28    		3.303.20
    Betsson2.253.303.20
    Nordicbet2.253.303.20
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 0%
    2.26    		3.323.23

    Odds updated 14 Sept, 21:36

    Odds movement

    1+6 %
    46 %41 %

    2.14 → 2.26

    X-1 %
    31 %26 %

    3.36 → 3.32

    2-7 %
    31 %26 %

    3.46 → 3.23

    Over 2,50 %
    48 %43 %

    2.07 → 2.08

    Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 14/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    8 matches
    Osasuna 4Draw 1Rayo Vallecano 3
    Goals: 12–10 (⌀ 2,8)

    Head-to-head based on La Liga data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • Rayo Vallecano have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Osasuna
    Rayo Vallecano
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Osasuna (5–6)
    Rayo Vallecano (7–10)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Osasuna
    Alejandro Catena: 217 passningar, xT 0.42CatenaIker Munoz: 146 passningar, xT 0.23MunozJon Moncayola: 118 passningar, xT 0.03MoncayolaAbel Bretones: 117 passningar, xT 0.22BretonesIñigo Arguibide: 113 passningar, xT 0.4ArguibideMoi Gomez: 94 passningar, xT 0.6GomezJorge Herrando: 93 passningar, xT 0.08HerrandoSergio Herrera: 74 passningar, xT 0.09HerreraRuben Garcia: 69 passningar, xT 0.22GarciaAsier Osambela: 66 passningar, xT 0.11OsambelaLucas Torro: 60 passningar, xT -0.02Torro
    Rayo Vallecano
    Florian Lejeune: 148 passningar, xT 0.25LejeunePathe Ciss: 145 passningar, xT 0.12CissUnai Lopez: 143 passningar, xT 0.34LopezAndrei Ratiu: 85 passningar, xT 0.22RatiuOscar Valentin: 79 passningar, xT 0.07ValentinPedro Diaz: 46 passningar, xT -0.02DiazSergio Camello: 45 passningar, xT 0.05CamelloDaniel Cárdenas Lindez: 44 passningar, xT 0LindezIván Balliu: 44 passningar, xT 0.02BalliuAugusto Batalla: 44 passningar, xT 0.06BatallaAdria Pedrosa: 40 passningar, xT 0.21Pedrosa
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Osasuna
    Alejandro Catena: 217 passningar, xT 0.42CatenaIker Munoz: 146 passningar, xT 0.23MunozJon Moncayola: 118 passningar, xT 0.03MoncayolaAbel Bretones: 117 passningar, xT 0.22BretonesIñigo Arguibide: 113 passningar, xT 0.4ArguibideMoi Gomez: 94 passningar, xT 0.6GomezJorge Herrando: 93 passningar, xT 0.08HerrandoSergio Herrera: 74 passningar, xT 0.09HerreraRuben Garcia: 69 passningar, xT 0.22GarciaAsier Osambela: 66 passningar, xT 0.11OsambelaLucas Torro: 60 passningar, xT -0.02Torro
    Rayo Vallecano
    Florian Lejeune: 148 passningar, xT 0.25LejeunePathe Ciss: 145 passningar, xT 0.12CissUnai Lopez: 143 passningar, xT 0.34LopezAndrei Ratiu: 85 passningar, xT 0.22RatiuOscar Valentin: 79 passningar, xT 0.07ValentinPedro Diaz: 46 passningar, xT -0.02DiazSergio Camello: 45 passningar, xT 0.05CamelloDaniel Cárdenas Lindez: 44 passningar, xT 0LindezIván Balliu: 44 passningar, xT 0.02BalliuAugusto Batalla: 44 passningar, xT 0.06BatallaAdria Pedrosa: 40 passningar, xT 0.21Pedrosa

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceOsasunaRayo Vallecano
    Points74
    xPoints7.95.4
    xG per match1.71.1
    xGA per match0.821.7
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.130.42
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.050.21
    Playing styleOsasunaRayo Vallecano
    Build-up efficiency0.310.33
    Field tilt0.470.33
    xT per match0.750.55
    xTA per match0.951.3
    Won balls, offensive half2220
    Pressing intensity0.240.25
    Pressing efficiency0.260.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.27
    Entries into the box per match89
    Entries into the box against818
    Pass completion %0.770.7
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.66
    Passes per match351261
    Passes against per match395357
    Switches of play per match31.820
    Long balls per match4029
    Set piecesOsasunaRayo Vallecano
    xG from free kicks0.030.05
    Corners per match3.56.1
    Corners against per match45.6
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.010.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.710.52
    First touch, defensive corners %0.810.59
    OtherOsasunaRayo Vallecano
    Throw-in control0.80.7
    The goalkeepersSergio Herrera (Osasuna)Daniel Cárdenas Lindez (Rayo Vallecano)
    Saves58
    Save %46%53%
    xG prevented43%61%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Osasuna
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Rayo Vallecano
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano according to our model?

    The model gives Osasuna a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Osasuna 44%, draw 28%, Rayo Vallecano 28%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.