Valencia vs Real Sociedad: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

La Liga20 September 2026 21:00 CESTMestalla, Valencia23°13 km/h

Läs på svenska

ValenciaBalanced & physical

Real SociedadBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Real Sociedad (39%)

1 · Valencia 33%X 29%39% Real Sociedad · 2

33%

29%

39%

Analysis: Valencia – Real Sociedad

Erik Lindberg · 12 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT:

In the last four encounters between Valencia and Real Sociedad, the hosts have managed to win twice, drawing once and losing once. However, this small sample holds less weight against the backdrop of current form and underlying statistics. The hosts find themselves in a rough patch, having dropped their last four games, while the visitors have been accumulating points more steadily. The model favors La Real, giving them a 39% chance of victory compared to Valencia's 33%.

Delving into expected goals (xG), Real Sociedad holds a modest edge with an xG of 1.47 against Valencia's 1.27, reflecting a slight advantage in offensive capability. Defensively, both teams exhibit vulnerabilities, with Valencia's expected goals against (xGA) at 1.6 per match, marginally higher than Sociedad's 1.5. These numbers suggest a close contest, but the visitors might have the upper hand in both attack and defense.

The most likely scorelines further echo a tight affair, with a 1-1 draw sitting at 12% probability, while a 0-1 or 1-2 result favoring the visitors each shows a 9% likelihood. This aligns with the model's lean towards Real Sociedad, yet the intrigue lies in the potential for goals. The over 2.5 goals probability sits just above a coin toss at 51%, indicating a slight inclination towards a more open game.

Real Sociedad appear the more likely side to edge this contest, backed by their stronger points tally, xPoints, and attacking numbers, though the margin remains modest. While not a slam dunk, the visitors are slightly favored in a match where the numbers suggest a tight, low-scoring outcome.

Valencia

Form DLLLL

League ranking xG #19xGA #16xT #20xP/match #16Points #20

Key players

Guido RodríguezCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.02
Filip UgrinicCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.05
PepeluCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07

Real Sociedad

Form LLWDW

League ranking xG #14xGA #14xT #16xP/match #11Points #9

Key players

Mikel OyarzabalFxG 0.13 · xT 0.09
Jon MartinCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.01
Sergio GomezLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Valencia – Real Sociedad

Predicted score matrix

Real Sociedad →

Valencia →

0–06.9%

0–19.2%

0–27.0%

0–33.4%

0–4+1.7%

1–07.9%

1–112.4%

1–28.9%

1–34.3%

1–4+2.2%

2–05.2%

2–17.6%

2–25.6%

2–32.7%

2–4+1.4%

3–02.2%

3–13.2%

3–22.4%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.6%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.3%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-19%
3.1-29%
4.1-08%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,27–1,47

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@1.91

Over 2,551%

@1.93

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Real Sociedad or draw (X2)68%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Real Sociedad or draw (X2)68%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Beñat Turrientes Imaz to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Beñat Turrientes Imaz to score23%
Yangel Clemente Herrera Ravelo to be booked20%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Valencia	X	2 · Real Sociedad
Betsafe	2.75	3.30	2.55
Betsson	2.75	3.30	2.55
Nordicbet	2.75	3.30	2.55
Pinnacle	2.74	3.35	2.57

Odds updated 15 Sept, 08:36

Odds movement

1-2 %

37 %32 %

2.80 → 2.74

X0 %

31 %26 %

3.35 → 3.35

2+2 %

40 %35 %

2.52 → 2.57

Over 2,50 %

52 %47 %

1.93 → 1.93

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 15/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Valencia 2Draw 1Real Sociedad 1

Goals: 6–7 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on La Liga data since 2022.

Key facts

Valencia CF have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Valencia

Real Sociedad

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Valencia (1–10)

Real Sociedad (6–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Valencia

Real Sociedad

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Valencia

Real Sociedad

The teams in numbers

Performance	Valencia	Real Sociedad
Points	1	7
xPoints	5.6	6.4
xG per match	0.67	1.1
xGA per match	1.6	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.3
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.61	0.57

Playing style	Valencia	Real Sociedad
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.29
Field tilt	0.34	0.38
xT per match	0.42	0.61
xTA per match	1.1	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	18	25
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.19	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.16	0.26
Entries into the box per match	7	9
Entries into the box against	15	15
Pass completion %	0.76	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.75
Passes per match	353	416
Passes against per match	487	443
Switches of play per match	22.9	29.8
Long balls per match	26	35

Set pieces	Valencia	Real Sociedad
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.07
Corners per match	3.8	7.6
Corners against per match	3.8	4.1
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.32	0.37
First touch, defensive corners %	0.68	0.4

Other	Valencia	Real Sociedad
Throw-in control	0.72	0.62

The goalkeepers	Stole Dimitrievski (Valencia)	Alex Remiro (Real Sociedad)
Saves	16	17
Save %	67%	74%
xG prevented	37%	50%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Valencia

Fixtures, form & tips

Real Sociedad

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Valencia vs Real Sociedad according to our model?

The model gives Real Sociedad a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Valencia 33%, draw 29%, Real Sociedad 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.