La LigaBalaídos, Vigo21°8 km/h

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    Celta VigoCelta VigoBalanced & physical
    vs
    Racing de SantanderRacing de SantanderCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Celta Vigo (46%)Best value by the model: 2 · Racing de Santander @ 4.33 (+28 %)

    Celta Vigo vs Racing de Santander · La Liga

    1 · Celta Vigo 46%X 25%30% Racing de Santander · 2

    Analysis: Celta Vigo – Racing de Santander

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    FAKTA does not specify betting odds or which team the 2-1 scoreline favors, so these are unsupported additions. Corrected text:

    Celta Vigo's home clash with Racing de Santander presents an intriguing imbalance. Despite the model's slight lean towards the hosts with a 46% win probability, the underlying metrics paint a different picture. Racing holds not only a better points tally, 4 to Celta's 3, but also a significant edge in expected points, suggesting their performances merit 6.3 points compared to Celta's 2.6. This discrepancy indicates that Racing might be undervalued by the market.

    The expected goals figures tell a similar story, with Racing averaging 1.4 xG per match against Celta's paltry 0.57. Their defense, too, stands out, conceding just 1.1 xGA per match while Celta's vulnerable backline allows 1.6. These statistics suggest a tighter contest than odds might imply, supporting the notion that Racing's counter-attacking style could exploit Celta's deficiencies.

    Given these insights, a 1-1 draw or a narrow 2-1 scoreline are plausible outcomes. The over 2.5 goals market, hovering at 54%, leans slightly towards an open match, yet the under shouldn't be dismissed given the tactical profiles.

    Celta VigoCelta Vigo
    Form DLLDD
    League ranking xG #20xGA #19xT #17xP/match #20Points #16
    Key players
    • Hugo González SotosFxG 0.25 · xT -0.01
    • Alvaro NunezRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
    • Marcos AlonsoCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.14
    Racing de SantanderRacing de Santander
    Form DLWL
    League ranking xG #5xGA #7xT #7xP/match #4Points #13
    Key players
    • Inigo VicenteLWxG 0.01 · xT 0.33
    • Andres MartinCAMxG 0.80 · xT 0.19
    • Ivan MartinCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.06

    Match prediction: Celta Vigo – Racing de Santander

    Predicted score matrix

    Racing de Santander →
    Celta Vigo →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.3%
    0–17.5%
    0–25.2%
    0–32.3%
    0–4+1.0%
    1
    1–08.5%
    1–112.1%
    1–27.8%
    1–33.5%
    1–4+1.6%
    2
    2–06.6%
    2–18.8%
    2–25.9%
    2–32.6%
    2–4+1.2%
    3
    3–03.3%
    3–14.4%
    3–22.9%
    3–31.3%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–01.7%
    4+–12.3%
    4+–21.5%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.1-28%
    5. 5.0-18%
    Expected goals
    1,50–1,33
    Both teams to score
    57%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,546%
    @2.21EV+2%
    Over 2,554%
    @1.69

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Celta Vigo to win46%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    32%

    Fair odds

    3.10

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Celta Vigo to win46%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Ferran Jutglà Blanch to score23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score57%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Andrés Martín García to score26%
    • Damián Rodríguez Sousa to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Racing de Santander30% probability@4.33Bet365EV+28%reference odds
    • 2 · Racing de Santander30% probability@4.25BetsafeEV+26%reference odds
    • 2 · Racing de Santander30% probability@4.25BetssonEV+26%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Celta VigoX2 · Racing de Santander
    Bet3651.753.60
    EV+ 28%
    4.33
    Betsafe1.783.85
    EV+ 26%
    4.25
    Betsson1.783.85
    EV+ 26%
    4.25
    Nordicbet1.783.85
    EV+ 26%
    4.25
    Pinnacle1.784.03
    EV+ 19%
    4.03

    Odds updated 15 Sept, 06:36

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Celta Vigo
    Racing de Santander
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Celta Vigo (2–5)
    Racing de Santander (7–8)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Celta Vigo
    Marcos Alonso: 294 passningar, xT 0.5AlonsoYoel Lago: 276 passningar, xT 0.23LagoMiguel Roman: 257 passningar, xT 0.2RomanIlaix Moriba: 204 passningar, xT 0.08MoribaCarl Starfelt: 184 passningar, xT 0.19StarfeltSergio Carreira: 180 passningar, xT 0.39CarreiraJavi Rodriguez: 175 passningar, xT 0.18RodriguezIonut Radu: 140 passningar, xT -0.03RaduAlvaro Nunez: 134 passningar, xT 0.15NunezIago Aspas: 102 passningar, xT 0.17AspasJavi Rueda: 102 passningar, xT 0.08Rueda
    Racing de Santander
    Inigo Vicente: 175 passningar, xT 1.05VicenteGustavo Puerta: 153 passningar, xT 0.34PuertaSergio Canales Madrazo: 119 passningar, xT 0.06MadrazoJorge Salinas: 114 passningar, xT 0.34SalinasAlvaro Mantilla: 110 passningar, xT 0.17MantillaPablo Ramon: 110 passningar, xT 0.15RamonIvan Martin: 106 passningar, xT 0.1MartinJulen Agirrezabala: 90 passningar, xT 0.02AgirrezabalaJosé Manuel Hernando Riol: 65 passningar, xT 0.09RiolAndres Martin: 62 passningar, xT 0.38MartinFacundo Gonzalez: 50 passningar, xT 0.13Gonzalez
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Celta Vigo
    Marcos Alonso: 294 passningar, xT 0.5AlonsoYoel Lago: 276 passningar, xT 0.23LagoMiguel Roman: 257 passningar, xT 0.2RomanIlaix Moriba: 204 passningar, xT 0.08MoribaCarl Starfelt: 184 passningar, xT 0.19StarfeltSergio Carreira: 180 passningar, xT 0.39CarreiraJavi Rodriguez: 175 passningar, xT 0.18RodriguezIonut Radu: 140 passningar, xT -0.03RaduAlvaro Nunez: 134 passningar, xT 0.15NunezIago Aspas: 102 passningar, xT 0.17AspasJavi Rueda: 102 passningar, xT 0.08Rueda
    Racing de Santander
    Inigo Vicente: 175 passningar, xT 1.05VicenteGustavo Puerta: 153 passningar, xT 0.34PuertaSergio Canales Madrazo: 119 passningar, xT 0.06MadrazoJorge Salinas: 114 passningar, xT 0.34SalinasAlvaro Mantilla: 110 passningar, xT 0.17MantillaPablo Ramon: 110 passningar, xT 0.15RamonIvan Martin: 106 passningar, xT 0.1MartinJulen Agirrezabala: 90 passningar, xT 0.02AgirrezabalaJosé Manuel Hernando Riol: 65 passningar, xT 0.09RiolAndres Martin: 62 passningar, xT 0.38MartinFacundo Gonzalez: 50 passningar, xT 0.13Gonzalez

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceCelta VigoRacing de Santander
    Points34
    xPoints2.66.3
    xG per match0.571.4
    xGA per match1.61.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.050.34
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.310.18
    Playing styleCelta VigoRacing de Santander
    Build-up efficiency0.310.3
    Field tilt0.610.44
    xT per match0.591
    xTA per match0.681.2
    Won balls, offensive half2321
    Pressing intensity0.220.24
    Pressing efficiency0.230.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.210.21
    Entries into the box per match815
    Entries into the box against816
    Pass completion %0.830.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.780.69
    Passes per match512336
    Passes against per match396384
    Switches of play per match38.19
    Long balls per match3519
    Set piecesCelta VigoRacing de Santander
    xG from free kicks0.060.04
    Corners per match3.95.7
    Corners against per match5.19.2
    xG per corner0.020.02
    xGA per corner against0.040.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.370.27
    First touch, defensive corners %0.710.59
    OtherCelta VigoRacing de Santander
    Throw-in control0.810.68
    The goalkeepersIonut Radu (Celta Vigo)Julen Agirrezabala (Racing de Santander)
    Saves1518
    Save %75%69%
    xG prevented53%47%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Celta Vigo
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Racing de Santander
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Celta Vigo vs Racing de Santander according to our model?

    The model gives Celta Vigo a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Celta Vigo 46%, draw 25%, Racing de Santander 30%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.