Villarreal vs Levante: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

La Liga20 September 2026 18:30 CESTEstadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal22°14 km/h

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VillarrealPossession & high press

LevanteBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Villarreal (61%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.47 (+7 %)

1 · Villarreal 61%X 22%17% Levante · 2

61%

22%

17%

Analysis: Villarreal – Levante

Sofia Andersson · 12 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Villarreal's prowess at home can't be ignored. Winning 62% of their matches on familiar turf, the Yellow Submarine thrives in their fortress. Despite lagging in the points tally with only 2 points compared to Levante's 5, a closer look at the underlying numbers tells a different story. Villarreal's expected goals (xG) per match at 1.7 demonstrates their attacking efficiency, while Levante's 1.1 xG suggests they might struggle to find the net.

The model gives Villarreal a 61% chance of victory, a nod to their potent possession and high press style, which could overwhelm Levante's more balanced, physical approach. The expected goals also lean heavily towards a Villarreal win, with an anticipated scoreline of around 2-0. These numbers align with the head-to-head history since 2022, albeit from a small sample of just two games, both won by Villareal.

With an over 2.5 goals probability sitting at 57%, and both teams to score at 53%, there's a moderate chance for goals, but not overwhelmingly so. The defensive gaps in Levante's game, with an xGA of 1.6 compared to Villarreal's 1.1, hint that if there is a flurry, it might be one-sided. Villarreal's defense seems equipped to handle Levante's threats, suggesting a clean sheet is not improbable.

The sharpest angle here is the value in backing Villarreal. With their home strength and better underlying stats, Villarreal holds the upper hand as the clear favorite. While no outcome is certain in football, the numbers paint a clear picture of Villarreal having the upper hand. Expect a controlled game from the hosts, likely leading to a 2-0 victory.

Villarreal

Form WDDLL

League ranking xG #3xGA #5xT #3xP/match #9Points #17

Key players

Nicolas PépéRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.16
Juan FoythCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.19
Carlos RomeroLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.08

Levante

Form LLDWD

League ranking xG #12xGA #18xT #12xP/match #18Points #11

Key players

Jon Ander OlasagastiLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.04
Enzo BardeliFxG 0.02 · xT 0.08
Adrian De La FuenteCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.23

Match prediction: Villarreal – Levante

Predicted score matrix

Levante →

Villarreal →

0–05.5%

0–14.7%

0–22.4%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.2%

1–010.2%

1–110.3%

1–24.8%

1–31.5%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.4%

2–19.9%

2–24.8%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.4%

3–06.9%

3–16.6%

3–23.2%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–05.5%

4+–15.2%

4+–22.5%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-010%
2.1-110%
3.1-010%
4.2-110%
5.3-07%

Expected goals

1,99–0,96

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.47EV+7%

Over 2,557%

@1.61

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Villarreal to win61%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Villarreal to win61%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Nicolas Pépé to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Nicolas Pépé to score28%
Oriol Rey Erenas to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.543% probability@2.47BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
Under 2.543% probability@2.47BetssonEV+7%reference odds
Under 2.543% probability@2.47NordicbetEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Villarreal	X	2 · Levante
Bet365	1.61	4.00	5.00
Betsafe	1.58	4.15	5.40
Betsson	1.58	4.15	5.40
Nordicbet	1.58	4.15	5.40
Pinnacle	1.56	4.39	5.25

Odds updated 15 Sept, 06:36

Odds movement

1-1 %

63 %58 %

1.57 → 1.56

X+2 %

24 %19 %

4.30 → 4.39

20 %

21 %16 %

5.23 → 5.25

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 15/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Villarreal 2Draw 0Levante 0

Goals: 6–1 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on La Liga data since 2022.

Key facts

Villarreal CF win 62% of their home matches all-time (39 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Villarreal

Levante

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Villarreal (6–8)

Levante (5–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Villarreal

Levante

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Villarreal

Levante

The teams in numbers

Performance	Villarreal	Levante
Points	2	5
xPoints	6	4.3
xG per match	1.7	1.1
xGA per match	1.1	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.38

Playing style	Villarreal	Levante
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.32
Field tilt	0.67	0.33
xT per match	1.3	0.74
xTA per match	0.79	0.81
Won balls, offensive half	24	19
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.18
Entries into the box per match	19	7
Entries into the box against	13	13
Pass completion %	0.82	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.72
Passes per match	504	324
Passes against per match	303	427
Switches of play per match	25.9	29.2
Long balls per match	29	33

Set pieces	Villarreal	Levante
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.02
Corners per match	7.2	3.5
Corners against per match	4.2	5.8
xG per corner	0.02	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.55	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.26

Other	Villarreal	Levante
Throw-in control	0.68	0.73

The goalkeepers	Juan Foyth (Villarreal)	Mathew Ryan (Levante)
Saves	7	17
Save %	100%	77%
xG prevented	100%	54%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Villarreal

Fixtures, form & tips

Levante

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Villarreal vs Levante according to our model?

The model gives Villarreal a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Villarreal 61%, draw 22%, Levante 17%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.