Degerfors vs Hammarby: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan20 September 2026 16:30 CESTStora Valla, Örebro13°26 km/h

Läs på svenska

DegerforsBalanced & physical

HammarbyPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Hammarby (65%)Best value by the model: 1 · Degerfors @ 8.58 (+21 %)

1 · Degerfors 14%X 21%65% Hammarby · 2

14%

21%

65%

Analysis: Degerfors – Hammarby

Oscar Nilsson · 19 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Hammarby's attacking prowess is hard to overlook, with the team having found the back of the net in their last 12 league outings. This spells potential trouble for Degerfors, who on average concede 1.6 goals per match. The visitors' high press and possession play have not only helped them secure 40 points this season but also sustain an xG of 2.3 per match, a significant margin over Degerfors' 0.91. The model's 65% probability for a Hammarby win underscores this dominance.

The head-to-head record doesn't flatter the hosts either. In the last five meetings, Hammarby have yet to taste defeat, winning three times. Although these encounters average 3.0 goals, suggesting an open fixture, Degerfors have struggled to convert their physical game into results against the visitors' style.

Yet, where there's imbalance, there's opportunity — chiefly in the form of a value bet. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offer Degerfors at 9.7, whereas the model sees their chances at 14%. With a 37% edge, it’s the kind of long shot that intrigues the contrarian bettor, though it comes with its risks.

Predicted scoreline leans heavily towards a 0-2 or 0-1 Hammarby victory, supported by their solid defensive record, conceding just 0.93 xGA per match. With an over 2.5 goals likelihood at 58%, the dynamics tilt towards a game with at least a couple of goals, likely from the visitors.

For those keen on a calculated gamble, the odds on the home side offer the best return, albeit with a reality check against Hammarby's formbook and statistical superiority.

Degerfors

Form WLLWL

League ranking xG #16xGA #11xT #11xP/match #14Points #14

Key players

Nahom Girmai NetabayRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.32
Dijan VukojevicFxG 0.23 · xT 0.21
Daniel SundgrenRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.23

Hammarby

Form WWLDW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #2Points #3

Key players

Montader MadjedRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.27
Hampus SkoglundRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.18
Paulos AbrahamFxG 0.69 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Degerfors – Hammarby

Predicted score matrix

Hammarby →

Degerfors →

0–05.1%

0–110.3%

0–211.4%

0–38.3%

0–4+7.4%

1–03.9%

1–19.3%

1–29.8%

1–37.1%

1–4+6.4%

2–01.8%

2–13.9%

2–24.2%

2–33.0%

2–4+2.7%

3–00.5%

3–11.1%

3–21.2%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.8%

4+–00.1%

4+–10.3%

4+–20.3%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-211%
2.0-110%
3.1-210%
4.1-19%
5.0-38%

Expected goals

0,86–2,17

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@2.38

Over 2,558%

@1.52

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Hammarby to win65%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Hammarby to win65%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Paulos Abraham to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Paulos Abraham to score35%
Bilal Hussein to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Degerfors14% probability@8.58BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
1 · Degerfors14% probability@8.58BetssonEV+21%reference odds
1 · Degerfors14% probability@8.58NordicbetEV+21%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Degerfors	X	2 · Hammarby
Betfair Exchange	1.10	1.10	1.10
Betsafe	EV+ 21% 8.58	EV+ 13% 5.39	1.33
Betsson	EV+ 21% 8.58	EV+ 13% 5.39	1.33
Nordicbet	EV+ 21% 8.58	EV+ 13% 5.39	1.33
Pinnacle	EV+ 14% 8.07	EV+ 13% 5.39	1.32

Odds updated 19 Sept, 14:37

Odds movement

1-1 %

14 %9 %

8.13 → 8.07

X-1 %

20 %15 %

5.47 → 5.39

2+1 %

74 %69 %

1.31 → 1.32

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 15/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Degerfors 0Draw 2Hammarby 3

Goals: 4–11 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

Key facts

Hammarby dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 0 in 5 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
Hammarby have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Degerfors

Hammarby

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Degerfors (19–33)

Hammarby (48–20)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Degerfors

Hammarby

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Degerfors

Hammarby

The teams in numbers

Performance	Degerfors	Hammarby
Points	19	40
xPoints	21.7	39
xG per match	0.91	2.3
xGA per match	1.6	0.93
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.24	0.45
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.32	0.24

Playing style	Degerfors	Hammarby
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.35
Field tilt	0.45	0.76
xT per match	1.4	1.7
xTA per match	1.4	0.84
Won balls, offensive half	33	38
Pressing intensity	0.47	0.57
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.25
Entries into the box per match	11	20
Entries into the box against	14	8
Pass completion %	0.79	0.87
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.83
Passes per match	361	560
Passes against per match	420	318
Switches of play per match	13.8	11
Long balls per match	27	24

Set pieces	Degerfors	Hammarby
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.21
Corners per match	4.9	6.6
Corners against per match	5.3	2.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.25	0.53
First touch, defensive corners %	0.64	0.6

Other	Degerfors	Hammarby
Throw-in control	0.55	0.72

The goalkeepers	Matvei Igonen (Degerfors)	Warner Hahn (Hammarby)
Saves	74	42
Save %	69%	68%
xG prevented	43%	36%
Claims	101 (91%)	80 (98%)

Teams & more matches this round

Degerfors

Fixtures, form & tips

Hammarby

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Degerfors vs Hammarby according to our model?

The model gives Hammarby a 65% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Degerfors 14%, draw 21%, Hammarby 65%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.