Mjällby vs GAIS: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan20 September 2026 16:30 CESTStrandvallen, Sölvesborg14°7,8 mm33 km/h

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MjällbyPossession control

GAISPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Mjällby (38%)Soft draw

1 · Mjällby 38%X 25%38% GAIS · 2

38%

25%

38%

Analysis: Mjällby – GAIS

Marcus Johansson · 19 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Both Mjällby and GAIS are pegged at a 38% chance of winning, yet the hosts hold a slight model lean. This tension signals balance, but the tactical clash could break it. Mjällby relies on controlling possession, while GAIS thrives on a high press. The visitors lead the table in points and expected points, showcasing sharper execution and efficiency. Mjällby will need to exploit every inch of their possession as they face a GAIS side adept at suppressing goal chances, highlighted by their lower xGA.

The historical head-to-head is a wash, with a small sample of five games yielding one win apiece and three draws. Mjällby's challenge is underscored by their inferior xG per match (1.2) compared to GAIS's 1.6. The expected goals suggest a tight affair, with a slight tilt towards over 2.5 goals despite the weather: the forecasted 7.8 mm of rain could still muddle passing lanes and slow transitions.

However, there's a betting angle here. Mjällby is valued at odds of 2.72 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, offering a 2% edge according to the model. Given the model's lean and the home advantage, this market value deserves a closer look for those keen on finding a positive EV play.

Mjällby

Form LLLDD

League ranking xG #11xGA #14xT #8xP/match #15Points #12

Key players

Abdoulie MannehFxG 0.30 · xT 0.07
Elliot StroudCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.49
Jacob BergströmFxG 0.28 · xT -0.01

GAIS

Form LLWDL

League ranking xG #4xGA #5xT #2xP/match #4Points #10

Key players

Róbert Frosti ÞorkelssonLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.25
Samuel SalterFxG 0.51 · xT 0.05
Rasmus Niklasson PetrovicLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.20

Match prediction: Mjällby – GAIS

Predicted score matrix

GAIS →

Mjällby →

0–06.6%

0–18.0%

0–25.6%

0–32.5%

0–4+1.1%

1–08.6%

1–112.3%

1–28.0%

1–33.6%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.4%

2–18.6%

2–25.8%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.2%

3–03.1%

3–14.1%

3–22.8%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.5%

4+–12.0%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.0-18%

Expected goals

1,44–1,34

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.13EV+1%

Over 2,553%

@1.72

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Mjällby or draw (1X)65%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Mjällby or draw (1X)65%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Jacob Bergström to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Jacob Bergström to score25%
Jesper Gustavsson to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Mjällby38% probability@2.72BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
1 · Mjällby38% probability@2.72BetssonEV+2%reference odds
1 · Mjällby38% probability@2.72NordicbetEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Mjällby	X	2 · GAIS
Betfair Exchange	1.59	1.57	1.12
Betsafe	EV+ 2% 2.72	3.47	2.52
Betsson	EV+ 2% 2.72	3.47	2.52
Nordicbet	EV+ 2% 2.72	3.47	2.52
Pinnacle	EV+ 1% 2.70	3.57	2.45

Odds updated 19 Sept, 14:37

Odds movement

10 %

37 %32 %

2.70 → 2.70

X0 %

29 %24 %

3.57 → 3.57

20 %

41 %36 %

2.45 → 2.45

Over 2,50 %

58 %53 %

1.71 → 1.72

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 17/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Mjällby 1Draw 3GAIS 1

Goals: 5–4 (⌀ 1,8)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Mjällby

GAIS

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Mjällby (27–35)

GAIS (25–20)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Mjällby

GAIS

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Mjällby

GAIS

The teams in numbers

Performance	Mjällby	GAIS
Points	22	27
xPoints	21.3	34
xG per match	1.2	1.6
xGA per match	1.8	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.43
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.44	0.17

Playing style	Mjällby	GAIS
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.33
Field tilt	0.5	0.55
xT per match	1.4	1.6
xTA per match	1.4	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	33	38
Pressing intensity	0.56	0.5
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.25
Entries into the box per match	14	17
Entries into the box against	15	12
Pass completion %	0.8	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.77
Passes per match	404	418
Passes against per match	399	411
Switches of play per match	17.6	12.5
Long balls per match	31	27

Set pieces	Mjällby	GAIS
xG from free kicks	0.24	0.17
Corners per match	4.8	5.3
Corners against per match	4.8	4.4
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.37	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.67

Other	Mjällby	GAIS
Throw-in control	0.56	0.62

The goalkeepers	Robin Wallinder (Mjällby)	Mergim Krasniqi (GAIS)
Saves	69	44
Save %	70%	79%
xG prevented	45%	50%
Claims	106 (89%)	80 (94%)

Teams & more matches this round

Mjällby

Fixtures, form & tips

GAIS

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Mjällby vs GAIS according to our model?

The model gives Mjällby a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mjällby 38%, draw 25%, GAIS 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.