Kalmar FF vs Häcken: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan20 September 2026 14:00 CESTGuldfågeln Arena, Kalmar15°1,2 mm28 km/h

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Kalmar FFPossession control

HäckenCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Häcken (43%)

1 · Kalmar FF 32%X 25%43% Häcken · 2

32%

25%

43%

Analysis: Kalmar FF – Häcken

Sofia Andersson · 19 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Kalmar FF's recent skid of three consecutive losses is the immediate backdrop to their clash with BK Häcken, who statistically hold the upper hand with 43% win chances. Despite the hosts' historical dominance over their visitors in a small sample of five meetings since 2023, the current form and expected goals data paint a different picture. Häcken's ability to exploit counter-attacks and crosses suggests they are well-equipped to capitalize on Kalmar's possession-heavy strategy.

The most likely outcomes lean towards a tight contest, with the model slightly favoring a 1-1 draw at 12% probability, followed by a 1-2 away win and a 0-1 result, both at 9%. Kalmar's expected goals (xG) per match of 1.2 falls short compared to Häcken's 1.5, further emphasizing the visitors' offensive edge. On the defensive end, Kalmar concedes an average of 1.3 goals per match, slightly worse than Häcken's 1.1, highlighting vulnerabilities that the visitors could exploit.

With a 53% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams finding the net, the game hints at being a competitive encounter with potential scoring from both sides. However, Häcken's superior xG and xGA metrics suggest they could edge Kalmar by a narrow margin. The model supports this with a lean towards an away victory.

For bettors, there's value in backing Häcken at odds of 2.38 across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, with the model rating it a 43% chance — a 2% edge over the bookmakers. While not a guarantee, this underscores the visitors' position as the likely favorites, making them a sensible option for those seeking value in the odds.

Kalmar FF

Form LDLLL

League ranking xG #10xGA #6xT #5xP/match #9Points #13

Key players

Anthony OlusanyaFxG 0.37 · xT -0.03
Charles Sagoe JrLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.26
Marius SöderbäckFxG 0.16 · xT 0.15

Häcken

Form WWLDD

League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #3xP/match #5Points #6

Key players

Julius LindbergFxG 0.36 · xT 0.23
Adrian SvanbäckFxG 0.22 · xT 0.12
Amor LayouniRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.50

Match prediction: Kalmar FF – Häcken

Predicted score matrix

Häcken →

Kalmar FF →

0–06.4%

0–18.8%

0–26.9%

0–33.5%

0–4+1.8%

1–07.5%

1–112.2%

1–28.9%

1–34.5%

1–4+2.4%

2–05.1%

2–17.7%

2–25.8%

2–32.9%

2–4+1.5%

3–02.2%

3–13.3%

3–22.5%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.7%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.4%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-19%
4.2-18%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

1,29–1,51

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.07

Over 2,553%

@1.77

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Häcken or draw (X2)68%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Häcken or draw (X2)68%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Mikkel Rygaard Jensen to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Mikkel Rygaard Jensen to score22%
Robert Gojani to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Häcken43% probability@2.43PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
2 · Häcken43% probability@2.38BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
2 · Häcken43% probability@2.38BetssonEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Kalmar FF	X	2 · Häcken
Betsafe	2.89	3.49	EV+ 2% 2.38
Betsson	2.89	3.49	EV+ 2% 2.38
Nordicbet	2.89	3.49	EV+ 2% 2.38
Pinnacle	2.83	3.53	EV+ 4% 2.43

Odds updated 19 Sept, 12:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 13 September — the odds have shortened from 2.21 to 2.07 (−6%).

1+1 %

36 %31 %

2.80 → 2.83

X-3 %

29 %24 %

3.65 → 3.53

2+4 %

43 %38 %

2.34 → 2.43

Over 2,5+7 %

58 %53 %

1.65 → 1.77

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 13/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Kalmar FF 3Draw 1Häcken 1

Goals: 7–5 (⌀ 2,4)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

Key facts

Kalmar FF dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
Kalmar FF have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Kalmar FF

Häcken

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Kalmar FF (21–31)

Häcken (34–30)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Kalmar FF

Häcken

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Kalmar FF

Häcken

The teams in numbers

Performance	Kalmar FF	Häcken
Points	19	33
xPoints	28.7	32.7
xG per match	1.2	1.5
xGA per match	1.3	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.24	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.27

Playing style	Kalmar FF	Häcken
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.35
Field tilt	0.48	0.5
xT per match	1.5	1.5
xTA per match	1.1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	31	27
Pressing intensity	0.51	0.54
Pressing efficiency	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.23
Entries into the box per match	16	14
Entries into the box against	14	13
Pass completion %	0.82	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.79
Passes per match	401	436
Passes against per match	448	391
Switches of play per match	14	13.4
Long balls per match	30	32

Set pieces	Kalmar FF	Häcken
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.1
Corners per match	4.9	5.4
Corners against per match	5.6	5.4
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.52
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.64

Other	Kalmar FF	Häcken
Throw-in control	0.63	0.66

The goalkeepers	Samuel Brolin (Kalmar FF)	Andreas Linde (Häcken)
Saves	52	45
Save %	73%	74%
xG prevented	56%	52%
Claims	80 (88%)	54 (90%)

Teams & more matches this round

Kalmar FF

Fixtures, form & tips

Häcken

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Kalmar FF vs Häcken according to our model?

The model gives Häcken a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kalmar FF 32%, draw 25%, Häcken 43%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.