Swedish Ettan18°5,3 mm22 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    AFC EskilstunaAFC EskilstunaLow block & direct
    2–1
    SollentunaSollentunaPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · AFC Eskilstuna (43%)Best value by the model: 2 · Sollentuna @ 4.20 (+41 %)

    AFC Eskilstuna – Sollentuna · Swedish Ettan

    1 · AFC Eskilstuna 43%X 24%34% Sollentuna · 2

    Analysis: AFC Eskilstuna – Sollentuna

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    The expected goals tell a different story: Eskilstuna's 1.57 to Sollentuna's 1.15 suggests a tighter affair, with the model still giving a slight edge to over 2.5 goals (51%). Although both teams tend to score, the forecasted rain could dampen attacking flair, nudging the tilt towards a controlled game.

    AFC Eskilstuna leads the model's probabilities with a 43% chance of victory, but the odds suggest potential value elsewhere. Sollentuna's 34% win probability is bolstered by the enticing odds of 3.7 available with several bookmakers, providing a significant 24% edge for those eyeing value bets. Despite Eskilstuna's lead in points and expected points, the visitors remain a viable option.

    The model's most likely score of 1-1 at 12% reinforces the notion of a cautious contest, with a slight nod to Eskilstuna in a potential 1-0 victory at 10%.

    Despite Eskilstuna's edge, the 3.7 odds on a Sollentuna victory with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet cannot be ignored for those seeking value. While Eskilstuna appears more stable, the away side's odds present a tempting proposition for bettors willing to back the underdogs in a potentially tight match.

    AFC EskilstunaAFC Eskilstuna
    League ranking xG #15xGA #17xT #31xP/match #11Points #9
    Key players
    • Robin BjörkmanFxG 0.27 · xT 0.10
    • Lee HanssonFxG 0.31 · xT 0.24
    • Albin FlodkvistFxG 0.31 · xT -0.02
    SollentunaSollentuna
    Form LDLWW
    League ranking xG #26xGA #9xT #14xP/match #23Points #23
    Key players
    • Dida RashidiFxG 0.20 · xT 0.13
    • Johannes DanhoLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.32
    • Emil StenstrandCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.48
    Final score
    2 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 43% · Draw 24% · Sollentuna 34%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Sollentuna FFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 11,04fair 14,67-25 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - AFC EskilstunaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,35fair 7,95-45 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: AFC Eskilstuna – Sollentuna

    Predicted score matrix

    Sollentuna →
    AFC Eskilstuna →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.9%
    0–17.2%
    0–24.4%
    0–31.7%
    0–4+0.6%
    1
    1–010.0%
    1–112.2%
    1–26.8%
    1–32.6%
    1–4+1.0%
    2
    2–08.1%
    2–19.3%
    2–25.4%
    2–32.1%
    2–4+0.8%
    3
    3–04.2%
    3–14.9%
    3–22.8%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–02.4%
    4+–12.7%
    4+–21.6%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.2-08%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,57–1,15
    Both teams to score
    54%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,549%
    @2.32EV+13%
    Over 2,551%
    @1.52

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance AFC Eskilstuna or draw (1X)72%
    • Over 1.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    56%

    Fair odds

    1.80

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance AFC Eskilstuna or draw (1X)72%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Armin Culum to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score54%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Filip Rosenquist to score30%
    • Ryan Williams to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Sollentuna34% probability@4.20BetsafeEV+41%reference odds
    • 2 · Sollentuna34% probability@4.20BetssonEV+41%reference odds
    • 2 · Sollentuna34% probability@4.20NordicbetEV+41%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · AFC EskilstunaX2 · Sollentuna
    Betsafe1.653.85
    EV+ 41%
    4.20
    Betsson1.653.85
    EV+ 41%
    4.20
    Nordicbet1.653.85
    EV+ 41%
    4.20

    Odds updated 29 Aug, 10:37

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a AFC Eskilstuna win since 24 August — the odds have shortened from 1.90 to 1.65 (−13%).

    1-13 %
    57 %47 %

    1.90 → 1.65

    X+10 %
    30 %20 %

    3.50 → 3.85

    2+24 %
    29 %19 %

    3.40 → 4.20

    Betsson · 11 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    AFC Eskilstuna
    Sollentuna
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    AFC Eskilstuna (31–25)
    Sollentuna (17–25)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Sollentuna
    Umit Aras: 229 passningar, xT 0.2ArasDavid Bengtsson: 188 passningar, xT 0.15BengtssonEmil Stenstrand: 166 passningar, xT 1.42StenstrandKalle Selin Stregart: 149 passningar, xT 0.26StregartOskar Käck: 139 passningar, xT 0.4KäckErik Lundell: 111 passningar, xT -0.08LundellSalim Nkubiri: 101 passningar, xT 0.71NkubiriWilgot Marshage: 100 passningar, xT 0.19MarshageJonathan Zeberga: 80 passningar, xT 0.1ZebergaJohannes Danho: 74 passningar, xT 0.62DanhoDida Rashidi: 56 passningar, xT 0.31Rashidi
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Sollentuna
    Umit Aras: 229 passningar, xT 0.2ArasDavid Bengtsson: 188 passningar, xT 0.15BengtssonEmil Stenstrand: 166 passningar, xT 1.42StenstrandKalle Selin Stregart: 149 passningar, xT 0.26StregartOskar Käck: 139 passningar, xT 0.4KäckErik Lundell: 111 passningar, xT -0.08LundellSalim Nkubiri: 101 passningar, xT 0.71NkubiriWilgot Marshage: 100 passningar, xT 0.19MarshageJonathan Zeberga: 80 passningar, xT 0.1ZebergaJohannes Danho: 74 passningar, xT 0.62DanhoDida Rashidi: 56 passningar, xT 0.31Rashidi

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceAFC EskilstunaSollentuna
    Points3120
    xPoints27.221.9
    xG per match1.41.2
    xGA per match1.41.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.320.2
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.20.2
    Playing styleAFC EskilstunaSollentuna
    Build-up efficiency0.380.32
    Field tilt0.440.55
    xT per match1.11.4
    xTA per match1.51.3
    Won balls, offensive half2929
    Pressing intensity0.490.45
    Pressing efficiency0.220.24
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.24
    Entries into the box per match1213
    Entries into the box against1311
    Pass completion %0.790.82
    Pass completion % under pressure0.730.76
    Passes per match346391
    Passes against per match410375
    Switches of play per match16.613.6
    Long balls per match3234
    Set piecesAFC EskilstunaSollentuna
    xG from free kicks0.150.13
    Corners per match4.74.4
    Corners against per match4.45.1
    xG per corner0.020.05
    xGA per corner against0.050.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.450.45
    First touch, defensive corners %0.560.64
    OtherAFC EskilstunaSollentuna
    Throw-in control0.550.58
    The goalkeepersAFC EskilstunaOscar Franck (Sollentuna)
    Saves–33
    Save %–67%
    xG prevented–37%
    Claims–68 (93%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    AFC Eskilstuna
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Sollentuna
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins AFC Eskilstuna vs Sollentuna according to our model?

    The model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: AFC Eskilstuna 43%, draw 24%, Sollentuna 34%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    TvååkerTvååker
    2–2
    UtsiktenUtsikten
    1 52%X 23%2 25%
    The model missed the outcome
    PiteåPiteå
    0–2
    GefleGefle
    1 28%X 21%2 51%
    The model called the outcome
    IFK StocksundIFK Stocksund
    0–2
    KarlbergKarlberg
    1 40%X 20%2 40%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.