IFK Stocksund vs Arlanda: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

Swedish Ettan29 August 2026 16:00 CEST17°15,6 mm26 km/h

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IFK StocksundBalanced & physical

2–3

ArlandaCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · IFK Stocksund (40%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 3.35 (+31 %)

1 · IFK Stocksund 40%X 21%40% Arlanda · 2

40%

21%

40%

Analysis: IFK Stocksund – Arlanda

Sofia Andersson · 27 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

FC Arlanda holds a 2-1 advantage in a small sample of three head-to-head encounters with IFK Stocksund, a record that may suggest a slight psychological edge. However, these matches are just a fraction of the broader context. The visitors have a substantial 33-point tally this season, significantly outpacing Stocksund's 11 points. Yet, the expected points paint a slightly less bleak picture for the hosts, suggesting they have underperformed relative to their potential.

The most telling numbers come from expected goals, where Stocksund edges Arlanda with 1.6 xG per match against Arlanda's 1.4. This suggests the hosts create more quality chances, even if their points haul doesn’t reflect it. Defensively, though, Stocksund struggles, conceding 2.0 xGA per match compared to Arlanda's 1.3, indicating vulnerability at the back. The model gives both sides a 40% chance to win, with a slight lean towards Stocksund, highlighting how evenly matched they are despite the table disparity.

Given the expected goals and playing styles, a match with over 2.5 goals and both teams finding the net looks likely. Stocksund's physicality might challenge Arlanda's counter-attacking strategy, especially on a rainy evening where the slippery conditions could lead to errors. The most probable scoreline according to the model is 1-1, but a 2-1 win for Stocksund is also on the cards, adding intrigue to the contest.

The standout angle here is the value on a home win. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offering odds of 3.0 on Stocksund, the model identifies a 19% edge. For those trusting the numbers over the table standing, backing Stocksund might just be the shrewd move.

IFK Stocksund

Form LLWLL

League ranking xG #7xGA #31xT #2xP/match #30Points #31

Key players

Yosef RaufFxG 0.43 · xT 0.08
Alexander JohanssonCMxG 0.16 · xT 0.57
Langston Jasper WennerlindLWxG 0.33 · xT 0.36

Arlanda

Form WLDLW

League ranking xG #17xGA #15xT #18xP/match #13Points #7

Key players

Mario ButrosCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.29
Anton CharbachiLWxG 0.47 · xT 0.16
Samuel Dawid RydzFxG 0.28 · xT 0.06

Final score

2 – 3

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: IFK Stocksund 40% · Draw 21% · Arlanda 40%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - IFK StocksundBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,08fair 6,32-20 %

Miss

Matchresultat - FC ArlandaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,84fair 9,35-59 %

Hit

Match prediction: IFK Stocksund – Arlanda

Predicted score matrix

Arlanda →

IFK Stocksund →

0–04.6%

0–15.8%

0–24.3%

0–32.1%

0–4+1.0%

1–07.1%

1–110.8%

1–27.5%

1–33.5%

1–4+1.7%

2–06.4%

2–19.1%

2–26.5%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.5%

3–03.7%

3–15.2%

3–23.7%

3–31.8%

3–4+0.9%

4+–02.4%

4+–13.3%

4+–22.4%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-27%
4.1-07%
5.2-26%

Expected goals

1,73–1,42

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

222%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@3.35EV+31%

Over 2,561%

@1.28

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance IFK Stocksund or draw (1X)69%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance IFK Stocksund or draw (1X)69%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Yosef Rauf to score40%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Yosef Rauf to score40%
Dary Izia Boto to be booked18%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.539% probability@3.35BetsafeEV+31%reference odds
Under 2.539% probability@3.35BetssonEV+31%reference odds
Under 2.539% probability@3.35NordicbetEV+31%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · IFK Stocksund	X	2 · Arlanda
Betsafe	EV+ 9% 2.75	3.85	2.05
Betsson	EV+ 9% 2.75	3.85	2.05
Nordicbet	EV+ 9% 2.75	3.85	2.05

Odds updated 29 Aug, 13:36

Odds movement

1+1 %

37 %27 %

2.72 → 2.75

X+4 %

29 %19 %

3.70 → 3.85

2-5 %

49 %39 %

2.15 → 2.05

Betsson · 13 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

IFK Stocksund 1Draw 0Arlanda 2

Goals: 5–7 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

IFK Stocksund

Arlanda

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

IFK Stocksund (36–44)

Arlanda (30–20)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

IFK Stocksund

Arlanda

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

IFK Stocksund

Arlanda

The teams in numbers

Performance	IFK Stocksund	Arlanda
Points	11	33
xPoints	18.9	26.1
xG per match	1.6	1.4
xGA per match	2	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.38	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.32	0.28

Playing style	IFK Stocksund	Arlanda
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.35
Field tilt	0.52	0.4
xT per match	1.7	1.4
xTA per match	1.4	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	25	34
Pressing intensity	0.52	0.49
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.32
Entries into the box per match	14	11
Entries into the box against	15	14
Pass completion %	0.81	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.66
Passes per match	377	258
Passes against per match	340	340
Switches of play per match	12.7	18.1
Long balls per match	27	33

Set pieces	IFK Stocksund	Arlanda
xG from free kicks	0.25	0.13
Corners per match	3.8	3.5
Corners against per match	4.2	4.5
xG per corner	0.01	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.49	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.49	0.58

Other	IFK Stocksund	Arlanda
Throw-in control	0.56	0.41

The goalkeepers	Jakob Rhawi (IFK Stocksund)	Adam Smedberg Lagh (Arlanda)
Saves	65	58
Save %	61%	75%
xG prevented	37%	63%
Claims	91 (87%)	87 (95%)

Teams & more matches this round

IFK Stocksund

Fixtures, form & tips

Arlanda

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins IFK Stocksund vs Arlanda according to our model?

The model gives IFK Stocksund a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: IFK Stocksund 40%, draw 21%, Arlanda 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.