Gefle vs Karlstad Fotboll: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

Swedish Ettan29 August 2026 16:00 CEST16°5,0 mm15 km/h

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GeflePossession control

2–2

Karlstad FotbollBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Karlstad Fotboll (55%)

1 · Gefle 19%X 25%55% Karlstad Fotboll · 2

19%

25%

55%

Analysis: Gefle – Karlstad Fotboll

Oscar Nilsson · 27 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

In the clash between Gefle and Karlstad Fotboll, the numbers suggest a clear edge for the visitors. Karlstad's 55% probability of winning outshines Gefle's 19%, pointing to a potential away victory. The model's most likely scorelines are 1-1 and 0-1, each at 12%, indicating a close contest, but the underlying dynamics favor Karlstad.

Gefle has struggled in recent matchups, failing to win in their three encounters with Karlstad since 2023. While the head-to-head sample is small, it gives a glimpse into the challenges Gefle faces against a team that combines balance and physicality effectively. Karlstad's playing style, alongside a solid xGA of 0.65 per match, hints at their defensive robustness, likely to frustrate Gefle's possession-heavy approach.

The expected goals (xG) tell a story of Karlstad's slight offensive edge, with 1.3 xG per game compared to Gefle's 1.2. However, it's defensively where Karlstad truly shines, significantly outperforming Gefle with their lower xGA. This defensive prowess, coupled with Gefle’s higher xGA of 1.4, suggests that Gefle may struggle to break through.

Weather could be a factor, with rain potentially dampening attacking play. Still, the model already accounts for these conditions, so the influence on the predicted outcome should be minimal. With only a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals, expect a tight match that leans toward the under.

For bettors eyeing value, Karlstad's win at odds of 2.02 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet offers a significant 12% edge according to the model. With a 55% probability of an away win, this represents a strong value play in a match where the visitors seem poised to capitalize on their superior form and defensive solidity.

Gefle

Form WWLWW

League ranking xG #25xGA #20xT #23xP/match #17Points #18

Key players

Måns BerggrenFxG 0.16 · xT 0.03
Lukas VikgrenLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.32
Mirza HasanbegovicFxG 0.30 · xT -0.02

Karlstad Fotboll

Form LWWLL

League ranking xG #19xGA #1xT #26xP/match #5Points #3

Key players

Oskar AlversLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.22
Banabas TagoeLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.17
Lukas RhöseRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.17

Final score

2 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Gefle 19% · Draw 25% · Karlstad Fotboll 55%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - IF Karlstad FotbollBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,22fair 8,40-14 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Gefle IFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 13,34fair 22,23-40 %

Miss

Match prediction: Gefle – Karlstad Fotboll

Predicted score matrix

Karlstad Fotboll →

Gefle →

0–08.2%

0–112.1%

0–29.8%

0–35.2%

0–4+2.9%

1–07.2%

1–112.3%

1–29.4%

1–35.0%

1–4+2.8%

2–03.6%

2–15.8%

2–24.5%

2–32.4%

2–4+1.3%

3–01.2%

3–11.8%

3–21.5%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.5%

4+–20.4%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-112%
3.0-210%
4.1-29%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

0,96–1,58

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,553%

@1.72

Over 2,547%

@2.00

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Karlstad Fotboll to win55%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Karlstad Fotboll to win55%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Konrad Gustafsson to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Alen Zahirovic to score23%
Theodor Hansemon to be booked17%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Karlstad Fotboll55% probability@1.95BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
2 · Karlstad Fotboll55% probability@1.95BetssonEV+8%reference odds
2 · Karlstad Fotboll55% probability@1.95NordicbetEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Gefle	X	2 · Karlstad Fotboll
Betsafe	3.60	3.20	EV+ 8% 1.95
Betsson	3.60	3.20	EV+ 8% 1.95
Nordicbet	3.60	3.20	EV+ 8% 1.95

Odds updated 29 Aug, 13:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards the draw since 24 August — the odds have shortened from 3.55 to 3.20 (−10%).

1-4 %

38 %18 %

3.75 → 3.60

X-10 %

37 %17 %

3.55 → 3.20

2+7 %

56 %36 %

1.82 → 1.95

Betsson · 14 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Gefle 0Draw 2Karlstad Fotboll 1

Goals: 3–5 (⌀ 2,7)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Gefle

Karlstad Fotboll

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Gefle (23–35)

Karlstad Fotboll (29–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Gefle

Karlstad Fotboll

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Gefle

Karlstad Fotboll

The teams in numbers

Performance	Gefle	Karlstad Fotboll
Points	23	36
xPoints	24.5	28.9
xG per match	1.2	1.3
xGA per match	1.4	0.65
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.18

Playing style	Gefle	Karlstad Fotboll
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.35
Field tilt	0.42	0.63
xT per match	1.3	1.3
xTA per match	1.4	0.96
Won balls, offensive half	29	32
Pressing intensity	0.48	0.5
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.28
Entries into the box per match	10	11
Entries into the box against	14	7
Pass completion %	0.79	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.74
Passes per match	331	389
Passes against per match	438	294
Switches of play per match	16.4	17.2
Long balls per match	28	32

Set pieces	Gefle	Karlstad Fotboll
xG from free kicks	0.16	0.1
Corners per match	3.8	5.2
Corners against per match	5.2	3.5
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.64

Other	Gefle	Karlstad Fotboll
Throw-in control	0.58	0.57

The goalkeepers	Max Croon (Gefle)	Mathias Karlsson (Karlstad Fotboll)
Saves	56	30
Save %	62%	67%
xG prevented	37%	44%
Claims	69 (97%)	82 (88%)

Teams & more matches this round

Gefle

Fixtures, form & tips

Karlstad Fotboll

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Gefle vs Karlstad Fotboll according to our model?

The model gives Karlstad Fotboll a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gefle 19%, draw 25%, Karlstad Fotboll 55%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.