Hammarby TFF vs Karlberg: Prediction & Odds (31 Aug 2026)

Swedish Ettan31 August 2026 19:00 CEST18°6,0 mm18 km/h

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Hammarby TFFPossession & high press

0–0

KarlbergBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Hammarby TFF (63%)Best value by the model: 2 · Karlberg @ 6.10 (+3 %)

1 · Hammarby TFF 63%X 20%17% Karlberg · 2

63%

20%

17%

Analysis: Hammarby TFF – Karlberg

Erik Lindberg · 31 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Bet365 odds line (1.75) isn’t part of the given data—this is an unsupported claim that should be removed. Otherwise the text matches the facts.

CORRECTED TEXT:

A sharp eye on the numbers reveals Hammarby TFF's clear edge over Karlberg, with a 63% probability favoring the hosts. Their possession and high pressing style could dictate the tempo against Karlberg's physical approach. Skewed towards Hammarby TFF, the data suggests a tactical battle where home advantage and defensive solidity might just tip the scales.

Despite the small head-to-head sample, with only one meeting since 2023, Hammarby TFF emerged victorious, hinting at their potential dominance again. Their 37 points compared to Karlberg's 24 further underscore this, though the xPoints tell a more balanced story, with Karlberg slightly edging it at 28.1 to Hammarby's 27.9. This discrepancy suggests that while Hammarby TFF capitalizes on their chances, Karlberg might be underperforming relative to potential.

The expected goals metric firmly backs Hammarby TFF, projecting 2.26 xG against Karlberg's 1.05. This aligns with the most likely scorelines of 2-1 and 2-0, indicating a leaning towards a home win. With a probability of 64% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, the metrics anticipate a match where goals should flow, despite the rainfall forecast potentially dampening spirits.

Significantly, Hammarby TFF boasts a solid defensive record, conceding just 0.82 xGA per match compared to Karlberg's 1.3. This defensive control could be crucial, especially given the expected conditions. Their ability to neutralize threats while maintaining pressure might limit Karlberg's chances, supporting the model's inclination towards a home win.

In a clash where defenses and playing styles will be pivotal, backing the hosts seems a calculated approach, fitting perfectly with a strategy of favoring stability and defensive control.

Hammarby TFF

Form WWDLD

League ranking xG #4xGA #2xT #1xP/match #10Points #1

Key players

Oskar MoczarnyLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.26
Adam JohanssonFxG 0.24 · xT 0.25
Noah EkLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.38

Karlberg

Form WWLWL

League ranking xG #8xGA #14xT #11xP/match #9Points #18

Key players

Noah Tesfai NegashLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.28
Adam JemalFxG 0.48 · xT 0.19
Mattias MitkuFxG 0.27 · xT 0.18

Final score

0 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Hammarby TFF 63% · Draw 20% · Karlberg 17%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Hammarby TFFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,53fair 4,30-18 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Karlbergs BKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 16,68fair 20,33-18 %

Miss

Match prediction: Hammarby TFF – Karlberg

Predicted score matrix

Karlberg →

Hammarby TFF →

0–03.9%

0–13.6%

0–22.0%

0–30.7%

0–4+0.2%

1–08.0%

1–18.9%

1–24.5%

1–31.6%

1–4+0.5%

2–09.4%

2–19.8%

2–25.1%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–07.0%

3–17.4%

3–23.9%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.4%

4+–06.7%

4+–17.1%

4+–23.7%

4+–31.3%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.2-09%
3.1-19%
4.1-08%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

2,26–1,05

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,536%

@2.58

Over 2,564%

@1.45

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Hammarby TFF to win63%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Hammarby TFF to win63%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Oskar Moczarny to score34%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Oskar Moczarny to score34%
Lukas Sietsema to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Karlberg17% probability@6.10BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
2 · Karlberg17% probability@6.10BetssonEV+3%reference odds
2 · Karlberg17% probability@6.10NordicbetEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Hammarby TFF	X	2 · Karlberg
Betsafe	1.39	4.60	EV+ 3% 6.10
Betsson	1.39	4.60	EV+ 3% 6.10
Nordicbet	1.39	4.60	EV+ 3% 6.10

Odds updated 31 Aug, 16:35

Odds movement

1-4 %

67 %62 %

1.45 → 1.39

X+7 %

22 %17 %

4.30 → 4.60

2+11 %

18 %13 %

5.50 → 6.10

Betsson · 7 recorded price levels · 26/08/2026 → 31/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Hammarby TFF 1Draw 0Karlberg 0

Goals: 2–0 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Hammarby TFF

Karlberg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Hammarby TFF (45–15)

Karlberg (28–28)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Hammarby TFF

Karlberg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Hammarby TFF

Karlberg

The teams in numbers

Performance	Hammarby TFF	Karlberg
Points	37	24
xPoints	27.9	28.1
xG per match	1.7	1.6
xGA per match	0.82	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.3	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.36

Playing style	Hammarby TFF	Karlberg
Build-up efficiency	0.39	0.35
Field tilt	0.78	0.49
xT per match	1.7	1.5
xTA per match	0.74	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	33	30
Pressing intensity	0.56	0.52
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.24
Entries into the box per match	22	12
Entries into the box against	8	14
Pass completion %	0.85	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.82	0.77
Passes per match	482	367
Passes against per match	273	381
Switches of play per match	12.7	13
Long balls per match	25	26

Set pieces	Hammarby TFF	Karlberg
xG from free kicks	0.22	0.21
Corners per match	5.8	4.4
Corners against per match	3.7	4.1
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.66	0.64

Other	Hammarby TFF	Karlberg
Throw-in control	0.66	0.6

The goalkeepers	Elton Fischerström Opancar (Hammarby TFF)	Argyrios Gkoulios (Karlberg)
Saves	39	44
Save %	75%	70%
xG prevented	55%	50%
Claims	73 (95%)	61 (91%)

Teams & more matches this round

Hammarby TFF

Fixtures, form & tips

Karlberg

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Hammarby TFF vs Karlberg according to our model?

The model gives Hammarby TFF a 63% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hammarby TFF 63%, draw 20%, Karlberg 17%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.