Lunds BK vs Jönköpings Södra Prediction: Home win 41% (31 Oct 2026)

Swedish Ettan31 October 2026 16:00 CET5°5 km/h

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Lunds BKPossession control

Jönköpings SödraPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Lunds BK (41%)

1 · Lunds BK 41%X 24%35% Jönköpings Södra · 2

41%

24%

35%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Lunds BK vs Jönköpings Södra (Swedish Ettan, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Lunds BK win 41%, draw 24%, Jönköpings Södra win 35%. Expected goals (xG): Lunds BK 1.45, Jönköpings Södra 1.32. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Lunds BK or draw 65%, Jönköpings Södra or draw 59%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Lunds BK – Jönköpings Södra

Marcus Johansson · 23 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Lunds BK holds a slight edge in this matchup against Jönköpings Södra, according to the current model probabilities. The hosts are given a 41% chance to win, while the visitors trail at 35%. This tilt towards Lunds is further bolstered by their superior expected goals per match at 1.7 compared to Jönköping's 1.2, indicating a more potent attack. However, the defensive metrics favor Jönköpings Södra with an expected goals against of just 0.92, suggesting they might stifle Lunds' scoring attempts.

Jönköpings Södra's historical dominance in this fixture is worth mentioning, despite the small sample size of five encounters since 2023. They’ve emerged victorious three times, while Lunds BK has managed just a single win. Yet, Lunds' impressive 59% home win rate might shift the dynamics in their favor this time around. Their ability to control possession could be key, especially against a Jönköpings side that relies on a high-press strategy, potentially leaving them vulnerable at the back.

The expected goals numbers suggest a tight contest, with both sides having decent chances to find the net. The over 2.5 goals probability stands at 52%, indicating a slight lean towards a higher-scoring affair, but not overwhelmingly so. The most likely scorelines of 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1 reflect this, offering no clear consensus on dominance from either side.

A high-stakes factor is Lunds BK's position in the league table, holding an eight-point lead over Jönköpings Södra. This edge in form and performance could translate into motivation, intensifying their drive to secure a home victory. The betting model leans modestly towards Lunds BK due to their higher point tally and superior xPoints at 41.9 compared to 37.6.

The sharpest angle for bettors here is the potential value in backing Lunds BK at odds of 2.45 with Bet365. Given their statistical edge, home advantage, and Jönköpings' susceptibility to possession-based teams, this bet carries value, although caution is advised due to the visiting side's historical success in this fixture.

Lunds BK

Form LLLWL

League ranking xG #1xGA #10xT #14xP/match #6Points #10

Key players

Bozidar VelickovicCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
Alexander NilssonLWxG 0.33 · xT 0.20
Gustav Båth SågängerLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.11

Jönköpings Södra

Form WLLLW

League ranking xG #26xGA #4xT #17xP/match #15Points #17

Key players

Arvid ErikssonRBxG 0.08 · xT 0.17
Olle AlmströmLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.24
Sebastian CronaCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Lunds BK – Jönköpings Södra

Predicted score matrix

Jönköpings Södra →

Lunds BK →

0–06.6%

0–17.9%

0–25.4%

0–32.4%

0–4+1.0%

1–08.8%

1–112.3%

1–27.9%

1–33.5%

1–4+1.5%

2–06.6%

2–18.7%

2–25.7%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.1%

3–03.2%

3–14.2%

3–22.8%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.6%

4+–12.1%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-09%
3.2-19%
4.0-18%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,45–1,32

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

–

Over 2,552%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Lunds BK or draw (1X)66%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Lunds BK or draw (1X)66%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Emil Lindman to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Linus Lyck to score25%
Isak Orajärvi to be booked21%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Lunds BK 1Draw 1Jönköpings Södra 3

Goals: 4–7 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

Key facts

Jönköpings Södra IF dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
Lunds BK win 59% of their home matches all-time (59 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Lunds BK

Jönköpings Södra

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Lunds BK (52–36)

Jönköpings Södra (31–28)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Lunds BK

Jönköpings Södra

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Lunds BK

Jönköpings Södra

The teams in numbers

Performance	Lunds BK	Jönköpings Södra
Points	44	36
xPoints	41.9	37.6
xG per match	1.7	1.2
xGA per match	1.2	0.92
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.4	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.16

Playing style	Lunds BK	Jönköpings Södra
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.33
Field tilt	0.57	0.63
xT per match	1.4	1.4
xTA per match	1.3	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	38	35
Pressing intensity	0.52	0.51
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.33
Entries into the box per match	15	15
Entries into the box against	11	9
Pass completion %	0.76	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.73
Passes per match	366	355
Passes against per match	308	289
Switches of play per match	20.8	16.6
Long balls per match	38	29

Set pieces	Lunds BK	Jönköpings Södra
xG from free kicks	0.16	0.1
Corners per match	5.5	5.5
Corners against per match	4.8	3.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.51	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.63

Other	Lunds BK	Jönköpings Södra
Throw-in control	0.44	0.52

The goalkeepers	Andreas Alexandersson (Lunds BK)	Alexander Eriksson (Jönköpings Södra)
Saves	84	62
Save %	70%	69%
xG prevented	42%	50%
Claims	156 (92%)	161 (91%)

Teams & more matches this round

Lunds BK

Fixtures, form & tips

Jönköpings Södra

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Lunds BK vs Jönköpings Södra according to our model?

The model gives Lunds BK a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lunds BK 41%, draw 24%, Jönköpings Södra 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Lunds BK vs Jönköpings Södra?

The model expects 1.45 goals (xG) for Lunds BK and 1.32 for Jönköpings Södra, 2.77 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Lunds BK or draw (1X) 65%, Jönköpings Södra or draw (X2) 59% and no draw (12) 76%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.