Swedish Ettan18°0,5 mm39 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Trelleborgs FFTrelleborgs FFCounter-attacks & crosses
    2–1
    UtsiktenUtsiktenCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Trelleborgs FF (72%)Best value by the model: 2 · Utsikten @ 9.70 (+18 %)

    Trelleborgs FF – Utsikten · Swedish Ettan

    1 · Trelleborgs FF 72%X 16%12% Utsikten · 2

    Analysis: Trelleborgs FF – Utsikten

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    One match isn't much to go on, but Trelleborgs FF and Utsikten's sole meeting since 2023 ended in a draw. Scrutinizing the numbers for this Ettan clash reveals a different story. The hosts are clear favorites with a substantial 72% win probability, bolstered by their superior xPoints of 28.3 compared to Utsikten's 16.2. The prediction leans heavily towards a comfortable home victory.

    Trelleborgs have been consistently outperforming the visitors, not just on the points table but also in expected goals tally — 1.6 per match compared to Utsikten's 1.0. Defensively, the hosts concede 1.1 xGA per match, half of what the visitors allow, indicating a potential defensive frailty in Utsikten's setup. This aligns with the model's most likely scorelines of 2-0 and 3-0, suggesting a decisive win for Trelleborgs, who also have home advantage.

    Rainy conditions with 7.3 mm expected could dampen the proceedings, but both teams' preference for counter-attacks and crosses might still yield opportunities. With a 69% chance for over 2.5 goals, it appears the weather has been factored into the model's expectations of a game with several scoring chances. The probability of both teams finding the net sits at 54%, showing a market expectation for Trelleborgs to dominate yet not entirely ruling out a visitor's goal.

    Despite the clear favoring of Trelleborgs, the bookmakers offer intriguing value on Utsikten. Odds of 12.5 at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present a 52% edge, according to the model's 12% assessment of their win probability. Betting on the underdog offers a tempting gamble for risk-takers seeking substantial returns, even though an upset seems unlikely.

    Trelleborgs FFTrelleborgs FF
    Form DDWLL
    League ranking xG #6xGA #6xT #6xP/match #7Points #2
    Key players
    • Oskar RuuskaRWxG 0.33 · xT 0.31
    • Emil Orheim JafLWxG 0.26 · xT 0.28
    • Isak EllbringFxG 0.14 · xT 0.09
    UtsiktenUtsikten
    Form LDLDD
    League ranking xG #30xGA #32xT #19xP/match #31Points #32
    Key players
    • Melvin KoliqiFxG 0.21 · xT 0.27
    • Pontus OlssonRWxG 0.04 · xT 0.29
    • Enzo AndrénLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.13
    Final score
    2 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Trelleborgs FF 72% · Draw 16% · Utsikten 12%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Trelleborgs FFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 3,17fair 3,62-12 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Trelleborgs FF – Utsikten

    Predicted score matrix

    Utsikten →
    Trelleborgs FF →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.0%
    0–12.3%
    0–21.1%
    0–30.3%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–07.5%
    1–16.8%
    1–22.9%
    1–30.8%
    1–4+0.2%
    2
    2–010.3%
    2–18.9%
    2–23.9%
    2–31.1%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–09.3%
    3–18.0%
    3–23.5%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–012.0%
    4+–110.4%
    4+–24.5%
    4+–31.3%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-010%
    2. 2.3-09%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.3-18%
    5. 5.1-07%
    Expected goals
    2,69–0,86
    Both teams to score
    54%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,6
    Under 2,531%
    @2.92
    Over 2,569%
    @1.36

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Trelleborgs FF to win72%
    • Over 1.5 goals87%

    Combined probability

    68%

    Fair odds

    1.47

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Trelleborgs FF to win72%
    • Over 2.5 goals69%
    • Oskar Gabrielsson to score44%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score54%
    • Over 2.5 goals69%
    • Oskar Gabrielsson to score44%
    • Felix Wennergrund to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Utsikten12% probability@9.70BetsafeEV+18%reference odds
    • 2 · Utsikten12% probability@9.70BetssonEV+18%reference odds
    • 2 · Utsikten12% probability@9.70NordicbetEV+18%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Trelleborgs FFX2 · Utsikten
    Betsafe1.18
    EV+ 3%
    6.40
    EV+ 18%
    9.70
    Betsson1.18
    EV+ 3%
    6.40
    EV+ 18%
    9.70
    Nordicbet1.18
    EV+ 3%
    6.40
    EV+ 18%
    9.70

    Odds updated 30 Aug, 09:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Utsikten win since 27 August — the odds have shortened from 12.50 to 9.70 (−22%).

    1+4 %
    81 %76 %

    1.14 → 1.18

    X-12 %
    16 %11 %

    7.30 → 6.40

    2-22 %
    11 %6 %

    12.50 → 9.70

    Over 2,5+1 %
    72 %67 %

    1.34 → 1.36

    Betsson · 9 recorded price levels · 27/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    1 matches
    Trelleborgs FF 0Draw 1Utsikten 0
    Goals: 0–0

    Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Trelleborgs FF
    Utsikten
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Trelleborgs FF (39–20)
    Utsikten (15–46)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Trelleborgs FF
    Jesper Modig: 280 passningar, xT 0.64ModigJohan Brannefalk: 217 passningar, xT 2.03BrannefalkOskar Sverrisson: 190 passningar, xT 0.39SverrissonNiclas Bergmark: 149 passningar, xT 0.29BergmarkOskar Ruuska: 133 passningar, xT 1.22RuuskaAmmar Asani: 102 passningar, xT 0AsaniOskar Gabrielsson: 101 passningar, xT 0.27GabrielssonJacob Christiansen: 95 passningar, xT 0.25ChristiansenMalte Påhlsson: 88 passningar, xT 0.36PåhlssonIsak Ellbring: 75 passningar, xT 0.15EllbringPrince Balde: 75 passningar, xT 0.26Balde
    Utsikten
    Pontus Olsson: 225 passningar, xT 2.03OlssonFelix Wennergrund: 218 passningar, xT 0.2WennergrundDavid Gustafsson: 208 passningar, xT 0.11GustafssonSimon Sjöholm: 165 passningar, xT 0.77SjöholmEnzo Andrén: 152 passningar, xT 0.85AndrénMelvin Koliqi: 145 passningar, xT 1.32KoliqiDaniel Hermansson: 126 passningar, xT 0.37HermanssonKasper Berndtsson: 108 passningar, xT 0.14BerndtssonElias Risp: 56 passningar, xT 0.39RispAlfredo Steiner: 54 passningar, xT 0.1SteinerTeo Sellstedt: 52 passningar, xT 0.33Sellstedt
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Trelleborgs FF
    Jesper Modig: 280 passningar, xT 0.64ModigJohan Brannefalk: 217 passningar, xT 2.03BrannefalkOskar Sverrisson: 190 passningar, xT 0.39SverrissonNiclas Bergmark: 149 passningar, xT 0.29BergmarkOskar Ruuska: 133 passningar, xT 1.22RuuskaAmmar Asani: 102 passningar, xT 0AsaniOskar Gabrielsson: 101 passningar, xT 0.27GabrielssonJacob Christiansen: 95 passningar, xT 0.25ChristiansenMalte Påhlsson: 88 passningar, xT 0.36PåhlssonIsak Ellbring: 75 passningar, xT 0.15EllbringPrince Balde: 75 passningar, xT 0.26Balde
    Utsikten
    Pontus Olsson: 225 passningar, xT 2.03OlssonFelix Wennergrund: 218 passningar, xT 0.2WennergrundDavid Gustafsson: 208 passningar, xT 0.11GustafssonSimon Sjöholm: 165 passningar, xT 0.77SjöholmEnzo Andrén: 152 passningar, xT 0.85AndrénMelvin Koliqi: 145 passningar, xT 1.32KoliqiDaniel Hermansson: 126 passningar, xT 0.37HermanssonKasper Berndtsson: 108 passningar, xT 0.14BerndtssonElias Risp: 56 passningar, xT 0.39RispAlfredo Steiner: 54 passningar, xT 0.1SteinerTeo Sellstedt: 52 passningar, xT 0.33Sellstedt

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceTrelleborgs FFUtsikten
    Points367
    xPoints28.316.2
    xG per match1.61
    xGA per match1.12.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.440.19
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.130.43
    Playing styleTrelleborgs FFUtsikten
    Build-up efficiency0.320.36
    Field tilt0.580.45
    xT per match1.51.4
    xTA per match1.21.8
    Won balls, offensive half3530
    Pressing intensity0.520.47
    Pressing efficiency0.320.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.330.26
    Entries into the box per match1511
    Entries into the box against1118
    Pass completion %0.760.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.7
    Passes per match344319
    Passes against per match297438
    Switches of play per match17.515.1
    Long balls per match3130
    Set piecesTrelleborgs FFUtsikten
    xG from free kicks0.160.08
    Corners per match5.24.2
    Corners against per match3.54.6
    xG per corner0.040.01
    xGA per corner against0.050.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.390.27
    First touch, defensive corners %0.630.59
    OtherTrelleborgs FFUtsikten
    Throw-in control0.490.6
    The goalkeepersMalte Påhlsson (Trelleborgs FF)Linus Dahlgren (Utsikten)
    Saves5837
    Save %74%66%
    xG prevented40%52%
    Claims102 (92%)44 (82%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Trelleborgs FF
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Utsikten
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Trelleborgs FF vs Utsikten according to our model?

    The model gives Trelleborgs FF a 72% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Trelleborgs FF 72%, draw 16%, Utsikten 12%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 69% and under at 31%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    TvååkerTvååker
    2–2
    UtsiktenUtsikten
    1 52%X 23%2 25%
    The model missed the outcome
    PiteåPiteå
    0–2
    GefleGefle
    1 28%X 21%2 51%
    The model called the outcome
    IFK StocksundIFK Stocksund
    0–2
    KarlbergKarlberg
    1 40%X 20%2 40%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.