01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Umeå FC or draw (1X)67%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Swedish Ettan16°7,5 mm18 km/h
Läs på svenska
Umeå FCPossession control3–2
VasalundPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Umeå FC (41%)
Umeå FC – Vasalund · Swedish Ettan
1 · Umeå FC 41%X 24%35% Vasalund · 2
41%
24%
35%
Analysis: Umeå FC – Vasalund
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT:
In a matchup defined by possession-oriented tactics from both Umeå FC and Vasalund, a subtle tension arises from their contrasting profiles in expected metrics versus actual points. The hosts, Umeå, have been backed by xG data with 1.7 goals expected per match, a figure that places them narrowly ahead of their visitors. Despite this, Vasalund's tangible points tally outpaces Umeå's by six, suggesting a discrepancy between expected efficiency and practical execution on the pitch.
The model gives Umeå a slight edge with a 41% chance of victory, contrasting with Vasalund's 35%. This hints at a tight affair, where Umeå's home advantage might just tip the scales. Historical head-to-head encounters since 2023, albeit a small sample of five matches, show equilibrium—two wins each and a draw. This suggests that while past meetings have been balanced, current form and xG lean towards Umeå.
Weather conditions forecasted to bring 5.4 mm of rain could potentially dampen goal-scoring opportunities, yet the over 2.5 goals probability remains high at 62%. This figure, coupled with a 64% chance for both teams to find the net, supports a prediction of goals despite the rain. However, with both sides prioritizing ball control, the match might unfold with periods of strategic stalemate.
The most likely scorelines, including a 1-1 draw and a 2-1 win for either side, further emphasize the expected balance. Given the over 2.5 goals probability and both teams capable of exploiting defensive lapses, a score of 2-1 in favor of Umeå seems plausible. Umeå's xPoints superiority and home ground advantage offer additional support for backing the hosts.
Umeå FCForm LLLLD
League ranking xG #3xGA #27xT #25xP/match #14Points #27
Key players
- Robin HadadFxG 0.75 · xT -0.03
- Stefan LindmarkCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.30
- Emmanuel OlaworeRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.34
VasalundForm LDWDW
League ranking xG #16xGA #24xT #22xP/match #21Points #17
Key players
- Marko NikolicFxG 0.18 · xT 0.24
- Ali KhanLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.45
- Christopher SliwoFxG 0.53 · xT 0.05
Final score
3 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Umeå FC 41% · Draw 24% · Vasalund 35%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Umeå FCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,54fair 6,44-14 %
HitMatchresultat - Vasalunds IFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,73fair 8,61-22 %
MissMatch prediction: Umeå FC – Vasalund
Predicted score matrix
Vasalund →
Umeå FC →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.4%
0–15.8%
0–24.5%
0–32.2%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–06.7%
1–110.7%
1–27.7%
1–33.8%
1–4+1.9%
2
2–06.0%
2–18.9%
2–26.6%
2–33.2%
2–4+1.7%
3
3–03.4%
3–15.1%
3–23.8%
3–31.8%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–02.2%
4+–13.2%
4+–22.4%
4+–31.2%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.2-27%
Expected goals
1,71–1,48
Both teams to score
64%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
113%
221%
322%
418%
5+22%
Under 2,538%
@2.32
Over 2,562%
@1.55
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Umeå FC or draw (1X)67%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Isak Johansson to score19%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score64%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Prince Amos to score31%
- Fredrick Udoh Godwin to be booked20%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Umeå FC | X | 2 · Vasalund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.25 | 3.55 | 2.65 |
| Betsson | 2.25 | 3.55 | 2.65 |
| Nordicbet | 2.25 | 3.55 | 2.65 |
Odds updated 30 Aug, 09:36
Odds movement
1+1 %
42 %37 %
2.22 → 2.25
X-3 %
27 %22 %
3.65 → 3.55
20 %
38 %33 %
2.65 → 2.65
Betsson · 7 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesUmeå FC 2Draw 1Vasalund 2
Goals: 6–7 (⌀ 2,6)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Umeå FC
Vasalund
Umeå FC (21–30)
Vasalund (28–35)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Umeå FC
Vasalund
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Umeå FC
Vasalund
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Umeå FC | Vasalund |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 17 | 23 |
| xPoints | 25.9 | 22.9 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.35 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| Playing style | Umeå FC | Vasalund |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| Field tilt | 0.42 | 0.55 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.42 | 0.49 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 332 | 370 |
| Passes against per match | 347 | 320 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.8 | 17.4 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Umeå FC | Vasalund |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| Corners per match | 6.3 | 4.8 |
| Corners against per match | 5.8 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.26 | 0.47 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.58 |
| Other | Umeå FC | Vasalund |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| The goalkeepers | Pontus Eriksson (Umeå FC) | Sindri Olafsson (Vasalund) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 38 | 41 |
| Save % | 69% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 54% | 48% |
| Claims | 41 (91%) | 66 (90%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Umeå FC vs Vasalund according to our model?
The model gives Umeå FC a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Umeå FC 41%, draw 24%, Vasalund 35%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.