01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Karlstad Fotboll to win51%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Swedish Ettan5°11 km/h
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VasalundPossession controlvs
Karlstad FotbollPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Karlstad Fotboll (51%)
Vasalund vs Karlstad Fotboll · Swedish Ettan
1 · Vasalund 26%X 23%51% Karlstad Fotboll · 2
26%
23%
51%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Vasalund vs Karlstad Fotboll (Swedish Ettan, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Vasalund win 26%, draw 23%, Karlstad Fotboll win 51%. Expected goals (xG): Vasalund 1.25, Karlstad Fotboll 1.65. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Vasalund or draw 49%, Karlstad Fotboll or draw 74%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.
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Analysis: Vasalund – Karlstad Fotboll
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: A striking 51% win probability for Karlstad sets the tone for this clash against Vasalund. The model underscores the visitors' edge in this matchup, with their possession control style poised to capitalize on the hosts' leaky defense, which has an xGA of 1.6 per match. This defensive frailty, coupled with Karlstad's xGA of 0.8, sets up a likely scenario where the visitors dictate play and limit Vasalund's chances.
Despite Vasalund's expected goals of 1.25, lower than Karlstad's 1.65, Karlstad's greater efficiency in converting chances and their superior points tally of 44 versus 28 makes them the favorites. The visitors' four wins out of seven head-to-heads since 2023 also tilt the balance in their favor, but this remains a small sample size and less weighty than current form and expected metrics.
The outlook leans towards a 1-2 scoreline — a scenario fitting the over 2.5 goals probability of 56%. Karlstad's capacity to exploit Vasalund’s defensive lapses makes them a solid choice. The 1.65 expected goals for Karlstad present a value angle for bettors seeking an edge in this fixture.
VasalundForm LWLDL
League ranking xG #24xGA #25xT #21xP/match #29Points #27
Key players
- Marko NikolicFxG 0.17 · xT 0.19
- Esaias TorppaCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.05
- Prince AmosRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.11
Karlstad FotbollForm DDDWL
League ranking xG #17xGA #2xT #24xP/match #7Points #11
Key players
- Elliot Nilsson KingCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.09
- Johan BengtssonFxG 0.15 · xT 0.04
- Armin ĐerlekFxG 0.19 · xT 0.10
Match prediction: Vasalund – Karlstad Fotboll
Predicted score matrix
Karlstad Fotboll →
Vasalund →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.8%
0–18.7%
0–27.5%
0–34.1%
0–4+2.5%
1
1–06.5%
1–111.7%
1–29.4%
1–35.2%
1–4+3.1%
2
2–04.3%
2–17.1%
2–25.9%
2–33.2%
2–4+1.9%
3
3–01.8%
3–13.0%
3–22.4%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–00.7%
4+–11.2%
4+–21.0%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-27%
- 5.2-17%
Expected goals
1,25–1,65
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
–
Over 2,556%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Karlstad Fotboll to win51%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Johan Bengtsson to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Ali Khan to score28%
- Melvin Bajrovic to be booked20%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
7 matchesVasalund 3Draw 0Karlstad Fotboll 4
Goals: 8–14 (⌀ 3,1)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Key facts
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.1 goals per meeting on average.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Vasalund
Karlstad Fotboll
Vasalund (39–59)
Karlstad Fotboll (41–27)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Vasalund
Karlstad Fotboll
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Vasalund
Karlstad Fotboll
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Vasalund | Karlstad Fotboll |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 28 | 44 |
| xPoints | 30.9 | 41.8 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.33 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | Vasalund | Karlstad Fotboll |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.53 | 0.62 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 34 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 372 | 389 |
| Passes against per match | 333 | 304 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.9 | 16.4 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Vasalund | Karlstad Fotboll |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| Corners per match | 4.5 | 5.4 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 3.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.37 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| Other | Vasalund | Karlstad Fotboll |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.6 | 0.56 |
| The goalkeepers | Sindri Olafsson (Vasalund) | Mathias Karlsson (Karlstad Fotboll) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 72 | 60 |
| Save % | 64% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 45% | 42% |
| Claims | 123 (93%) | 126 (88%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Ängelholm – Tvååker31 October 2026 13:00 CET
- Kristianstad FC – Eskilsminne31 October 2026 13:00 CET
- Arlanda – AFC Eskilstuna31 October 2026 16:00 CET
- Lunds BK – Jönköpings Södra31 October 2026 16:00 CET
- Skövde AIK – Rosengård31 October 2026 16:00 CET
- Karlberg – Assyriska FF1 November 2026 13:00 CET
- Trelleborgs FF – Laholm1 November 2026 13:00 CET
- Piteå – IFK Stocksund1 November 2026 15:00 CET
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Vasalund vs Karlstad Fotboll according to our model?
The model gives Karlstad Fotboll a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vasalund 26%, draw 23%, Karlstad Fotboll 51%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Vasalund vs Karlstad Fotboll?
The model expects 1.25 goals (xG) for Vasalund and 1.65 for Karlstad Fotboll, 2.90 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Vasalund or draw (1X) 49%, Karlstad Fotboll or draw (X2) 74% and no draw (12) 77%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.