01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Thun or draw (1X)62%
- Over 1.5 goals86%
Swiss Super LeagueStockhorn Arena, Thun25°4,3 mm12 km/h
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Thun0–6
Young BoysThe model's lean: 1 · Thun (39%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.03 (+12 %)
Thun vs Young Boys · Swiss Super League
1 · Thun 39%X 28%33% Young Boys · 2
39%
28%
33%
Final score
0 – 6
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Thun 39% · Draw 28% · Young Boys 33%
Match prediction: Thun – Young Boys
Predicted score matrix
Young Boys →
Thun →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.6%
0–15.4%
0–24.8%
0–32.7%
0–4+1.7%
1
1–05.4%
1–19.9%
1–28.2%
1–34.7%
1–4+2.9%
2
2–04.8%
2–18.2%
2–27.0%
2–34.0%
2–4+2.5%
3
3–02.7%
3–14.6%
3–24.0%
3–32.3%
3–4+1.4%
4+
4+–01.7%
4+–12.9%
4+–22.5%
4+–31.4%
4+–4+0.9%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.1-28%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.2-27%
- 5.0-15%
Expected goals
1,70–1,71
Both teams to score
67%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,40
111%
219%
322%
419%
5+26%
Under 2,534%
–
Over 2,566%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 2 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Thun or draw (1X)62%
- Over 2.5 goals66%
03 · 2 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score67%
- Over 2.5 goals66%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw28% probability@4.03PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
- 1 · Thun39% probability@2.76PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
- Under 3.556% probability@1.90PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Thun | X | 2 · Young Boys |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | EV+ 8% 2.76 | EV+ 12% 4.03 | 2.34 |
Odds updated 1 Aug, 10:08
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Young Boys win since 27 July — the odds have shortened from 2.65 to 2.34 (−12%).
1+15 %
42 %32 %
2.40 → 2.76
X+3 %
29 %19 %
3.90 → 4.03
2-12 %
44 %34 %
2.65 → 2.34
Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 01/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Thun vs Young Boys according to our model?
The model gives Thun a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Thun 39%, draw 28%, Young Boys 33%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 67% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.