Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor: Prediction & Odds (23 Oct 2026)

Süper Lig23 October 202622°10 km/h

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AlanyasporLow block & direct

1–2

KocaelisporPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Alanyaspor (49%)

1 · Alanyaspor 49%X 28%23% Kocaelispor · 2

49%

28%

23%

Prediction summary

Final score 1–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor (Süper Lig, Friday, 23 October 2026): Alanyaspor win 49%, draw 28%, Kocaelispor win 23%. Expected goals (xG): Alanyaspor 1.32, Kocaelispor 1.09. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: Alanyaspor or draw 77%, Kocaelispor or draw 51%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Alanyaspor – Kocaelispor

Erik Lindberg · 23 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Kocaelispor's possession-focused style contrasts sharply with Alanyaspor's direct approach, setting up an intriguing stylistic clash. Yet, the underlying numbers suggest a tilt towards the visitors. Despite being seen as underdogs with a 23% win probability, Kocaelispor's slightly superior expected points (9.8) and expected goals per match (1.1) could be pivotal.

In their brief head-to-head history, Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor have split results evenly. However, with only two encounters since 2023, this small sample holds little weight compared to current form and underlying metrics. The hosts' xGA of 1.8 per match is a glaring concern, highlighting their defensive frailty, whereas Kocaelispor’s figure of 1.6 suggests they possess slightly better defensive solidity.

The model's favoring of Alanyaspor (49%) despite their inferior expected goals and points metrics might lean on their home advantage and previous win in this matchup. Yet, Kocaelispor's ability to generate expected goals within 8 seconds of winning the ball (0.34) far surpasses Alanyaspor’s 0.12. This could prove decisive, especially given the hosts' vulnerability at the back.

For those drawn to the numbers, the smart money might be on a low-scoring affair. The likelihood of under 2.5 goals coming in sits at 57%, with the most probable scorelines being tight ones such as 1-1 (13%) and 1-0 (11%). The model suggests both teams' scoring chances are nearly even at 49%, but the cautious bettor would gravitate towards a subdued scoring encounter.

Given the underlying metrics and potential value, the standout wager is backing Kocaelispor at odds of 4.00 with William Hill. While there's no guarantee, the combination of a sturdy possession game and Alanyaspor's defensive weaknesses may tip the scales in favor of the visitors.

Alanyaspor

Form WDWDL

League ranking xG #15xGA #16xT #11xP/match #14Points #9

Key players

Florent HadergjonajRWxG 0.01 · xT 0.34
Gaius MakoutaCMxG 0.14 · xT 0.05
Paolo Fernandes CantinRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.35

Kocaelispor

Form WLWLL

League ranking xG #11xGA #13xT #12xP/match #12Points #8

Key players

Berkan KutluCAMxG 0.16 · xT 0.14
Anfernee Jamal DijksteelRBxG 0.05 · xT 0.05
Daniel Ebenezer Kwasi AgyeiFxG 0.12 · xT 0.06

Final score

1 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Alanyaspor 49% · Draw 28% · Kocaelispor 23%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - KocaelisporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 15,10fair 16,73-10 %

Miss

Matchresultat - AlanyasporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,75fair 11,49-33 %

Miss

Match prediction: Alanyaspor – Kocaelispor

Predicted score matrix

Kocaelispor →

Alanyaspor →

0–09.3%

0–19.4%

0–25.3%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.7%

1–011.5%

1–113.3%

1–27.0%

1–32.6%

1–4+0.9%

2–07.8%

2–18.5%

2–24.7%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–03.4%

3–13.8%

3–22.1%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.5%

4+–11.7%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-19%
4.0-09%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,32–1,09

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,557%

@1.68

Over 2,543%

@2.26

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Alanyaspor to win49%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Alanyaspor to win49%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Gaïus Abraham Jered Makouta to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Gaïus Abraham Jered Makouta to score21%
Manuel Luís da Silva Cafumana to be booked24%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Alanyaspor	X	2 · Kocaelispor
Betsafe	1.98	3.20	3.95
LeoVegas	1.98	3.20	3.80
Nordicbet	1.98	3.20	3.95
Pinnacle	2.01	3.28	4.24

Odds updated 23 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

1+1 %

50 %45 %

1.99 → 2.01

X+3 %

32 %27 %

3.18 → 3.28

2+1 %

25 %20 %

4.18 → 4.24

Over 2,5-4 %

44 %39 %

2.35 → 2.26

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Alanyaspor 1Draw 0Kocaelispor 1

Goals: 5–2 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Alanyaspor

Kocaelispor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Alanyaspor (8–9)

Kocaelispor (9–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Alanyaspor

Kocaelispor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Alanyaspor

Kocaelispor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Alanyaspor	Kocaelispor
Points	12	12
xPoints	8.5	9.8
xG per match	0.95	1.1
xGA per match	1.8	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.12	0.34
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.22

Playing style	Alanyaspor	Kocaelispor
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.29
Field tilt	0.41	0.47
xT per match	0.91	0.89
xTA per match	1.1	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	19	23
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.22	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.15	0.22
Entries into the box per match	10	10
Entries into the box against	13	13
Pass completion %	0.76	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.72
Passes per match	298	346
Passes against per match	431	380
Switches of play per match	23.1	21.6
Long balls per match	36	29

Set pieces	Alanyaspor	Kocaelispor
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.02
Corners per match	5	3.7
Corners against per match	3.6	5.3
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.3	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.45	0.55

Other	Alanyaspor	Kocaelispor
Throw-in control	0.68	0.69

The goalkeepers	Paulo Victor de Mileo Vidotti (Alanyaspor)	Serhat Öztaşdelen (Kocaelispor)
Saves	33	26
Save %	79%	81%
xG prevented	62%	55%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Alanyaspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Kocaelispor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor according to our model?

The model gives Alanyaspor a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Alanyaspor 49%, draw 28%, Kocaelispor 23%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor?

The model expects 1.32 goals (xG) for Alanyaspor and 1.09 for Kocaelispor, 2.41 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Alanyaspor or draw (1X) 77%, Kocaelispor or draw (X2) 51% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.