01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Samsunspor or draw (1X)66%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
Süper Lig17°0,4 mm9 km/h
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SamsunsporPossession control1–2
AmedsporPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Samsunspor (45%)
Samsunspor vs Amedspor · Süper Lig
1 · Samsunspor 45%X 25%30% Amedspor · 2
45%
25%
30%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Samsunspor vs Amedspor (Süper Lig, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Samsunspor win 45%, draw 25%, Amedspor win 30%. Expected goals (xG): Samsunspor 1.36, Amedspor 1.25. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Samsunspor or draw 70%, Amedspor or draw 55%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Samsunspor – Amedspor
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Samsunspor's daunting six-match losing streak stands starkly against Amedspor's unbeaten run in their last six league games. Despite the hosts' dire form, the model surprisingly leans towards Samsunspor with a 45% win probability. This suggests that underlying numbers might tell a different story than recent results, pointing to the possibility of regression to the mean, especially with expected goals (xG) of 1.36 slightly in their favor. Yet, Amed's xG per match (1.6) and their stronger defensive record (xGA 0.85) signify a formidable opponent.
The most likely scoreline, according to the model, is a 1-1 draw at 13%, followed by a narrow 1-0 victory for Samsunspor. This aligns with evenly matched expected goals: 1.36 for the hosts and 1.25 for the visitors. The over 2.5 goals probability stands at 48%, indicating a lean towards a low-scoring match. Both teams prefer possession control, which may lead to a tactical stalemate rather than an open contest.
Despite Samsunspor's losing streak, the betting value lies with them. Betsafe and Nordicbet offer odds of 3.4 for a home win, which presents a substantial 53% edge over the model's estimate. LeoVegas offers slightly less at 3.3 but still represents a positive expected value, making these odds particularly intriguing given the model's confidence in a potential bounce-back performance from the hosts.
While Amed may appear to have the edge on paper with superior league form and underlying metrics, the model identifies value in Samsunspor at home. Betting at these odds—especially considering the 45% probability assigned to a home win—might be the sharpest angle. The clash between statistical expectations and current form heightens the tension in this matchup, but the model's insights suggest a calculated gamble on the home side could pay off.
SamsunsporForm LLLLL
League ranking xG #13xGA #12xT #7xP/match #17Points #17
Key players
- Josafat Wooding MendesRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.16
- Elliot William WattCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.12
- Gabriele GuarinoCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.07
AmedsporForm DWWDW
League ranking xG #6xGA #2xT #14xP/match #2Points #2
Key players
- Lumbardh DellovaCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.08
- Mehmet YesilCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
- Diaa Sabi'aCAMxG 0.30 · xT 0.11
Final score
1 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Samsunspor 45% · Draw 25% · Amedspor 30%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - SamsunsporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,44fair 10,39-9 %
MissMatchresultat - Amed SFKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,18fair 12,30-42 %
MissMatch prediction: Samsunspor – Amedspor
Predicted score matrix
Amedspor →
Samsunspor →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.7%
0–18.8%
0–25.7%
0–32.4%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–09.6%
1–112.9%
1–27.8%
1–33.3%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–06.8%
2–18.5%
2–25.3%
2–32.2%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–03.1%
3–13.9%
3–22.4%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–11.8%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,36–1,25
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@2.03EV+1%
Over 2,548%
@1.85
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Samsunspor or draw (1X)66%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Mohamed Lamine Bayo to score16%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Samuel Leo Beat Ballet to score22%
- Rayan Ny Aina Arnaldo Raveloson to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Samsunspor45% probability@3.08PinnacleEV+38%reference odds
- 1 · Samsunspor45% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+37%reference odds
- 1 · Samsunspor45% probability@3.05NordicbetEV+37%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Samsunspor | X | 2 · Amedspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 37% 3.05 | 3.35 | 2.25 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 32% 2.95 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 37% 3.05 | 3.35 | 2.25 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 38% 3.08 | 3.56 | 2.32 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 12:37
Odds movement
1+5 %
35 %25 %
2.93 → 3.08
X+1 %
31 %21 %
3.52 → 3.56
2-1 %
49 %39 %
2.34 → 2.32
Over 2,5-2 %
57 %47 %
1.88 → 1.85
Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Samsunspor have lost 6 in a row.
- Amed are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Samsunspor
Amedspor
Samsunspor (7–19)
Amedspor (18–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Samsunspor
Amedspor
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Samsunspor
Amedspor
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Samsunspor | Amedspor |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 17 |
| xPoints | 7.2 | 15 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 0.85 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.12 | 0.3 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.4 | 0.14 |
| Playing style | Samsunspor | Amedspor |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.58 | 0.45 |
| xT per match | 0.99 | 0.83 |
| xTA per match | 0.85 | 0.6 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 19 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 7 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 437 | 325 |
| Passes against per match | 334 | 367 |
| Switches of play per match | 32.8 | 21 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Samsunspor | Amedspor |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 4.8 | 4.3 |
| Corners against per match | 5.9 | 4.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.66 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.49 | 0.66 |
| Other | Samsunspor | Amedspor |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.79 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Okan Kocuk (Samsunspor) | Alban-Marc Lafont (Amedspor) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 34 | 20 |
| Save % | 64% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 54% | 40% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Samsunspor vs Amedspor according to our model?
The model gives Samsunspor a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Samsunspor 45%, draw 25%, Amedspor 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Samsunspor vs Amedspor?
The model expects 1.36 goals (xG) for Samsunspor and 1.25 for Amedspor, 2.61 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Samsunspor or draw (1X) 70%, Amedspor or draw (X2) 55% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.