CSKA Sofia vs Monaco: Prediction & Odds (15 Oct 2026)

Conference League15 October 2026

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CSKA SofiaLow block & direct

1–2

MonacoBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Monaco (40%)Best value by the model: 1 · CSKA Sofia @ 6.02 (+112 %)

1 · CSKA Sofia 35%X 25%40% Monaco · 2

35%

25%

40%

Prediction summary

Final score 1–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for CSKA Sofia vs Monaco (Conference League, Thursday, 15 October 2026): CSKA Sofia win 35%, draw 25%, Monaco win 40%. Expected goals (xG): CSKA Sofia 1.62, Monaco 1.68. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 66%. Double chance: CSKA Sofia or draw 60%, Monaco or draw 65%. Prediction updated Wednesday, 7 October 2026.

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Analysis: CSKA Sofia – Monaco

Anna Karlsson · 13 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Monaco's 40% win probability edges out CSKA Sofia's 35%, indicating a slight advantage for the visitors in this Conference League clash. Both teams showcase strengths: Sofia's direct approach contrasts with Monaco's balanced and physical style. With expected goals nearly identical at 1.62 for the hosts and 1.68 for Monaco, the match projects to be closely contested, with the most likely scorelines being 1-1 and 1-2. This underlines the potential for a tight game, with a slight lean towards the visitors.

While the over 2.5 goals probability sits at 64%, driven by both sides' vulnerabilities and offensive potential, the head-to-head record remains too small to significantly impact predictions. Sofia’s low defensive posture might struggle against Monaco's physicality and higher xG output, which stands at 1.8 compared to Sofia's 0.9. This difference could be the key that tips the balance, leaning the scoreline towards a 1-2 Monaco victory, despite the hosts' home advantage.

For those searching for value in an otherwise close matchup, the home win odds present a compelling opportunity. Betsafe and Nordicbet offer odds at 6.3, with a model-rated probability of 35% offering a substantial 122% edge. LeoVegas also provides value at 5.6, though the edge is slightly lower at 97%.

CSKA Sofia

Form LL

League ranking xG #46xGA #23xT #63xP/match #30Points #44

Key players

Andre HoffmannCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.52
Lasha DvaliCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.32
Diego Daniel Medina RomanRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.22

Monaco

Form WW

League ranking xG #16xGA #13xT #41xP/match #8Points #14

Key players

Lamine CamaraCMxG 0.04 · xT -0.03
Eric DierCBxG 0.29 · xT 0.02
Paris BrunnerCAMxG 0.57 · xT 0.26

Final score

1 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: CSKA Sofia 35% · Draw 25% · Monaco 40%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - CSKA SofiaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 18,83fair 7,19+162 %

Miss

Matchresultat - MonacoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,22fair 6,62-36 %

Miss

Match prediction: CSKA Sofia – Monaco

Predicted score matrix

Monaco →

CSKA Sofia →

0–04.0%

0–15.9%

0–25.2%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.8%

1–05.7%

1–110.3%

1–28.5%

1–34.7%

1–4+2.9%

2–04.8%

2–18.1%

2–26.8%

2–33.8%

2–4+2.4%

3–02.6%

3–14.4%

3–23.7%

3–32.1%

3–4+1.3%

4+–01.5%

4+–12.5%

4+–22.1%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-28%
3.2-18%
4.2-27%
5.0-16%

Expected goals

1,62–1,68

Both teams to score

66%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,536%

@2.30

Over 2,564%

@1.58EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Monaco or draw (X2)63%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Monaco or draw (X2)63%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Paris Josua Brunner to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score66%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Paris Josua Brunner to score33%
Marcelino Jr Carreazo Betin to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · CSKA Sofia35% probability@6.02PinnacleEV+112%reference odds
1 · CSKA Sofia35% probability@5.90BetsafeEV+108%reference odds
1 · CSKA Sofia35% probability@5.90NordicbetEV+108%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · CSKA Sofia	X	2 · Monaco
Betsafe	EV+ 108% 5.90	EV+ 7% 4.30	1.48
LeoVegas	EV+ 102% 5.75	EV+ 12% 4.50	1.47
Nordicbet	EV+ 108% 5.90	EV+ 7% 4.30	1.48
Pinnacle	EV+ 112% 6.02	EV+ 15% 4.62	1.50

Odds updated 15 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

1+3 %

19 %14 %

5.87 → 6.02

X-1 %

23 %18 %

4.68 → 4.62

2+3 %

66 %61 %

1.47 → 1.50

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 13/10/2026 → 15/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Monaco

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Monaco (7–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Monaco

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Monaco

The teams in numbers

Performance	CSKA Sofia	Monaco
Points	1	6
xPoints	2.8	3.7
xG per match	0.9	1.8
xGA per match	1.2	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.09	0.58
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.39	0.18

Playing style	CSKA Sofia	Monaco
Build-up efficiency	0.26	0.3
Field tilt	0.43	0.64
xT per match	0.08	0.78
xTA per match	0.14	0.95
Won balls, offensive half	38	25
Pressing intensity	0.27	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.2	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.2
Entries into the box per match	18	12
Entries into the box against	16	12
Pass completion %	0.76	0.85
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.84
Passes per match	353	518
Passes against per match	520	336
Switches of play per match	42.3	23
Long balls per match	44	25

Set pieces	CSKA Sofia	Monaco
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.05
Corners per match	4.5	4.7
Corners against per match	6.3	4.7
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.2	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.79	0.56

Other	CSKA Sofia	Monaco
Throw-in control	0.77	0.62

The goalkeepers	CSKA Sofia	Lukas Hradecky (Monaco)
Saves	–	8
Save %	–	73%
xG prevented	–	54%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

CSKA Sofia

Fixtures, form & tips

Monaco

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins CSKA Sofia vs Monaco according to our model?

The model gives Monaco a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: CSKA Sofia 35%, draw 25%, Monaco 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in CSKA Sofia vs Monaco?

The model expects 1.62 goals (xG) for CSKA Sofia and 1.68 for Monaco, 3.30 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

CSKA Sofia or draw (1X) 60%, Monaco or draw (X2) 65% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.