01 · 2 legs
Safe
- LASK to win53%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
Austrian Bundesliga12°0,3 mm12 km/h
Läs på svenska
LASKPossession & high pressvs
Rapid WienBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · LASK (53%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.12 (+10 %)
LASK vs Rapid Wien · Austrian Bundesliga
1 · LASK 53%X 27%21% Rapid Wien · 2
53%
27%
21%
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: LASK – Rapid Wien
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
In the last eight encounters between LASK and Rapid Wien, the hosts have asserted dominance, claiming five victories and averaging 3.4 goals per game. Yet, the historical edge should not overshadow the tightness of this season's race; Rapid Vienna holds a slight points advantage with 18 compared to LASK's 16. However, the underlying metrics reveal a different story, as LASK's expected points and goals suggest a stronger side than the standings indicate.
The model gives LASK a 53% chance of winning, bolstered by the expectation of 1.98 goals against Rapid's 1.28. This aligns with the home side's high-pressing, possession-based style that often overwhelms opponents. Despite Rapid's physical and balanced approach, their defensive vulnerability is evident, allowing an expected 1.0 goals against per match, compared to LASK's mere 0.67. With both teams scoring in their last nine and sixteen league matches respectively, the likelihood of finding the net is high on both sides.
Defensively, LASK's tighter backline and ability to control possession under pressure could make the difference, especially when considering the small sample of head-to-head matches. Rapid's recent form might look favorable in raw points, but when diving into expected data, LASK emerges with an edge in both xG and xGA, suggesting they are more likely to convert opportunities and stifle Rapid's attacks.
For bettors, the over 2.5 goals market is tempting at 63%, though the most cautious play aligns with backing LASK. Bet365 offers odds of 1.90 for a home win, presenting a potential value opportunity. With LASK's superior expected metrics and historical strength in this fixture, a 2-1 scoreline feels the most plausible, blending their defensive solidity with their penchant for finding the net.
LASKForm WWWLD
League ranking xG #2xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #2
Key players
- Moses UsorFxG 0.66 · xT 0.13
- George BelloLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.18
- Sascha HorvathLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.21
Rapid WienForm WWLWW
League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #2xP/match #3Points #1
Key players
- Yusuf DemirRWxG 0.32 · xT 0.29
- Matthias SeidlCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.13
- Bendeguz BollaRWBxG 0.12 · xT 0.32
Match prediction: LASK – Rapid Wien
Predicted score matrix
Rapid Wien →
LASK →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.1%
0–14.7%
0–23.2%
0–31.3%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–07.3%
1–110.0%
1–26.2%
1–32.7%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.5%
2–19.6%
2–26.2%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–05.0%
3–16.3%
3–24.1%
3–31.7%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–03.9%
4+–14.9%
4+–23.2%
4+–31.3%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.2-08%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.3-16%
Expected goals
1,98–1,28
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+23%
Under 2,537%
@2.75EV+1%
Over 2,563%
@1.41
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- LASK to win53%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Robert Ljubičić to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Robert Ljubičić to score32%
- Nenad Cvetković to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw27% probability@4.12PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
- Under 3.559% probability@1.76PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
- X · Draw27% probability@3.85BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · LASK | X | 2 · Rapid Wien |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.78 | EV+ 2% 3.85 | 3.95 |
| Nordicbet | 1.78 | EV+ 2% 3.85 | 3.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.79 | EV+ 10% 4.12 | 3.92 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesLASK 5Draw 1Rapid Wien 2
Goals: 16–11 (⌀ 3,4)
Head-to-head based on Austrian Bundesliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- LASK dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 2 in 8 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.4 goals per meeting on average.
- LASK have scored in 16 consecutive league matches.
- SK Rapid Vienna have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
- LASK win 59% of their home matches all-time (37 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
LASK
Rapid Wien
LASK (19–7)
Rapid Wien (21–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
LASK
Rapid Wien
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
LASK
Rapid Wien
The teams in numbers
| Performance | LASK | Rapid Wien |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 18 |
| xPoints | 14.2 | 12.8 |
| xG per match | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| xGA per match | 0.67 | 1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.51 | 0.77 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| Playing style | LASK | Rapid Wien |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.8 | 0.63 |
| xT per match | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 0.53 | 0.79 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 20 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 5 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.78 |
| Passes per match | 441 | 514 |
| Passes against per match | 262 | 356 |
| Switches of play per match | 45.1 | 29.1 |
| Long balls per match | 52 | 35 |
| Set pieces | LASK | Rapid Wien |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.1 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 8.1 | 6 |
| Corners against per match | 1.1 | 2.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.88 | 0.63 |
| Other | LASK | Rapid Wien |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.78 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Lukas Jungwirth (LASK) | Niklas Hedl (Rapid Wien) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 11 | 24 |
| Save % | 61% | 77% |
| xG prevented | 51% | 54% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins LASK vs Rapid Wien according to our model?
The model gives LASK a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: LASK 53%, draw 27%, Rapid Wien 21%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.