01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Hartberg or draw (1X)64%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Austrian Bundesliga12°0,6 mm3 km/h
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HartbergCounter-attacks & crossesvs
Austria LustenauLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Hartberg (39%)Best value by the model: 2 · Austria Lustenau @ 3.26 (+9 %)
Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau · Austrian Bundesliga
1 · Hartberg 39%X 28%33% Austria Lustenau · 2
39%
28%
33%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Hartberg – Austria Lustenau
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT: Hartberg's ability to exploit counter-attacks and cross the ball into dangerous areas may be their best chance against Austria Lustenau. This strategy aligns well with their model probability of 39% to win the match. Although the hosts have struggled historically in this fixture with only one win in their last six meetings, the small head-to-head sample holds less weight than their current form and expected goals. Despite the visitors' edge in xPoints and xG metrics, the expected goals for this match are strikingly close: 1.41 for Hartberg and 1.38 for Austria Lustenau.
The most likely scorelines, a 1-1 draw or a 2-1 result, highlight the tight nature of this contest. Given Hartberg's style of counter-attacking and Lustenau's preference for a low defensive line with direct play, both teams have the potential to find the back of the net. This is further supported by the 57% probability for both teams to score.
Austria Lustenau's historical dominance in this fixture—three wins in six encounters—suggests they might have a psychological edge. Yet, Hartberg's model-backed probability, combined with a slightly higher likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 53%, indicates potential value in backing the hosts.
The numbers suggest a lean towards Hartberg, who looks undervalued. This assessment, however, should be weighed against Lustenau's superior xG and xPoints edges over the season. The model's lean towards Hartberg appears justified, but bettors should remain cautious, given the small sample size in head-to-head meetings. A final scoreline of 2-1, with over 2.5 goals, seems the most plausible outcome.
HartbergForm LWWDD
League ranking xG #11xGA #10xT #12xP/match #9Points #6
Key players
- Tobias KainzRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.06
- Marco HoffmannFxG 0.41 · xT -0.01
- Benjamin MarkusCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
Austria LustenauForm WDLLW
League ranking xG #8xGA #6xT #9xP/match #7Points #8
Key players
- Antonio VerinacFxG 0.30 · xT 0.11
- Seydou DiarraLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.11
- Albin GashiLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.07
Match prediction: Hartberg – Austria Lustenau
Predicted score matrix
Austria Lustenau →
Hartberg →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.5%
0–18.1%
0–25.8%
0–32.7%
0–4+1.3%
1
1–08.3%
1–112.3%
1–28.2%
1–33.8%
1–4+1.8%
2
2–06.1%
2–18.4%
2–25.8%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–02.9%
3–14.0%
3–22.7%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–11.9%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-18%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-18%
Expected goals
1,41–1,38
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
@2.02
Over 2,553%
@1.81
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Hartberg or draw (1X)64%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Marco Philip Hoffmann to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Marco Philip Hoffmann to score26%
- Emmanuel Chukwu to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Austria Lustenau33% probability@3.26PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
- 2 · Austria Lustenau33% probability@3.25BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
- 2 · Austria Lustenau33% probability@3.25NordicbetEV+8%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Hartberg | X | 2 · Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.08 | 3.45 | EV+ 8% 3.25 |
| Nordicbet | 2.08 | 3.45 | EV+ 8% 3.25 |
| Pinnacle | 2.11 | EV+ 2% 3.65 | EV+ 9% 3.26 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 08:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesHartberg 1Draw 2Austria Lustenau 3
Goals: 9–13 (⌀ 3,7)
Head-to-head based on Austrian Bundesliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- SC Austria Lustenau dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.7 goals per meeting on average.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Hartberg
Austria Lustenau
Hartberg (10–13)
Austria Lustenau (8–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Hartberg
Austria Lustenau
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Hartberg
Austria Lustenau
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Hartberg | Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 8 |
| xPoints | 7.4 | 9.5 |
| xG per match | 0.83 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.38 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | Hartberg | Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| Field tilt | 0.23 | 0.43 |
| xT per match | 0.65 | 0.82 |
| xTA per match | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 20 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 278 | 237 |
| Passes against per match | 438 | 366 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.7 | 20.1 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Hartberg | Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 3.5 | 5.3 |
| Corners against per match | 10.2 | 7.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| Other | Hartberg | Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Ármin Pécsi (Hartberg) | Domenik Schierl (Austria Lustenau) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 28 | 20 |
| Save % | 68% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 47% | 42% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau according to our model?
The model gives Hartberg a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hartberg 39%, draw 28%, Austria Lustenau 33%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.