WSG Tirol vs Ried Prediction: Home win 36% (10 Oct 2026)

Austrian Bundesliga10 October 202613°3,6 mm3 km/h

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WSG TirolPossession control

RiedPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · WSG Tirol (36%)Soft draw

1 · WSG Tirol 36%X 28%36% Ried · 2

36%

28%

36%

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Analysis: WSG Tirol – Ried

Erik Lindberg · 2 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: WSG Tirol and Ried possess an evenly matched head-to-head history, having split their four encounters since 2022 with Tirol winning once, Ried twice, and one draw. This limited sample indicates a slight edge to the visitors but doesn't weigh heavily against the broader metrics and team form leading into this fixture.

Both sides lean towards possession-heavy football, which could mean a tactical battle rather than an open contest. Each team has an equal 36% chance of claiming victory, but the underlying numbers give a subtle nod to the hosts. Expected goals suggest a tight affair, with Tirol slightly ahead at 1.52 to Ried's 1.41. The model reflects this in its most likely scoreline of 1-1, suggesting a match that could be decided by fine margins.

Rain is expected, which typically tempers offensive exploits, but the model accounts for these conditions. The over/under 2.5 goal probabilities lean towards the over at 56%, driven by both teams' inclination to score and concede — 59% likelihood for both teams to find the net underlines this. Despite each team's controlled possession style, these factors point to a potentially goal-rich game.

The slight model lean towards Tirol, combined with home advantage, suggests a narrow edge for the hosts. The likelihood of a 2-1 victory for Tirol dovetails with this statistical lean, making it a plausible outcome for those seeking value, though the overall probabilities point to a tightly contested match.

WSG Tirol

Form LWWDL

League ranking xG #6xGA #9xT #11xP/match #6Points #7

Key players

David GugganigCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
Moritz OswaldLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
Marco BorasCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.09

Ried

Form LWLDW

League ranking xG #4xGA #7xT #6xP/match #4Points #5

Key players

Niama Pape SissokoFxG 0.76 · xT 0.03
Philipp PomerLWBxG 0.12 · xT 0.31
Evan Eghosa AisowierenFxG 0.54 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: WSG Tirol – Ried

Predicted score matrix

Ried →

WSG Tirol →

0–05.7%

0–17.2%

0–25.3%

0–32.5%

0–4+1.2%

1–07.8%

1–111.8%

1–28.1%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.8%

2–06.2%

2–18.7%

2–26.1%

2–32.9%

2–4+1.4%

3–03.1%

3–14.4%

3–23.1%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.7%

4+–01.7%

4+–12.4%

4+–21.7%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-08%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,52–1,41

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

@2.18

Over 2,556%

@1.57

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance WSG Tirol or draw (1X)65%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance WSG Tirol or draw (1X)65%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Nikolai Baden Frederiksen to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Nikolai Baden Frederiksen to score21%
Marc Striednig to be booked24%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · WSG Tirol	X	2 · Ried
LeoVegas	2.50	3.45	2.40

Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:03

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

WSG Tirol 1Draw 1Ried 2

Goals: 3–5 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Austrian Bundesliga data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

WSG Tirol

Ried

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

WSG Tirol (9–12)

Ried (11–12)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

WSG Tirol

Ried

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

WSG Tirol

Ried

The teams in numbers

Performance	WSG Tirol	Ried
Points	8	8
xPoints	10.2	10.8
xG per match	1.4	1.9
xGA per match	1.7	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.37	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.31	0.32

Playing style	WSG Tirol	Ried
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.28
Field tilt	0.44	0.49
xT per match	0.66	0.99
xTA per match	1.3	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	21	25
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.21
Entries into the box per match	10	13
Entries into the box against	15	15
Pass completion %	0.76	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.69
Passes per match	350	329
Passes against per match	388	372
Switches of play per match	18.5	21.1
Long balls per match	26	30

Set pieces	WSG Tirol	Ried
xG from free kicks	0	0.08
Corners per match	5.6	4
Corners against per match	6.2	5.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.49	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.7	0.51

Other	WSG Tirol	Ried
Throw-in control	0.73	0.68

The goalkeepers	Salko Hamzic (WSG Tirol)	Andreas Leitner (Ried)
Saves	29	21
Save %	73%	64%
xG prevented	57%	43%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

WSG Tirol

Fixtures, form & tips

Ried

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins WSG Tirol vs Ried according to our model?

The model gives WSG Tirol a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: WSG Tirol 36%, draw 28%, Ried 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.